T.J Watt (+800) Will Earn his Second-Career DPOY This Year

Futures boards offer valuable betting tools. They offer insight into which teams and players are expected to deliver in their respective markets. Perennially, Patrick Mahomes is among the betting favorites to take home the MVP. Likewise, his Kansas City Chiefs are consistently priced as one of the top teams to take home the Lombardi Trophy as Super Bowl Champions.

Still, the Defensive Player of the Year award is among the most untapped markets. After years of dominance, Aaron Donald’s reign as the best defensive player has come to an end, revealing a handful of new contenders taking his mantle.

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T.J. Watt

Among those is 2021 winner T.J. Watt. Since coming into the league in 2017, the Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker has been a menace. On top of taking home DPOY honors, the soon-to-be 29-year-old has tied the league record for sacks in a season with 22.5, made the All-Pro team three times, and been one of the most consistent all-around defenders in the league. 

He’s again ranked near the top of the futures board, a sign of confidence in backing the hulking linebacker. 

Down Year

A torn pec muscle resulted in Watt missing seven games in 2022. But in true Watt fashion, T.J. returned from the usually disastrous injury after just eight weeks. With an entire offseason of rehabilitation and preparation, Watt will be up to his usual antics starting in Week 1.

Consistent Production

As reflected in his futures price, Watt has established himself as one of the pre-eminent defenders in the NFL. Excluding his rookie and most recent campaigns, the former Wisconsin Badger had tallied at least 13.0 sacks in every season. 

Watt’s contributions aren’t limited to pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Throughout his six seasons in the league, Watt has accumulated six interceptions, 37 pass deflections, 23 forced fumbles, and seven fumble recoveries. The Steelers linebacker has asserted himself as one of the most prominent impact defenders in the NFL.

Team Success

The most telling sign of Watt’s contributions is the Steelers success with him on the field. Last year, Pittsburgh went an appalling 1-6 without Watt, jumping to 8-2 with their defensive leader in the lineup. 

As expected, Pittsburgh’s defensive metrics tumbled in Watt’s absence. From Week 2 to 9, opponents averaged a staggering 389.9 yards per game and a -9 turnover ratio. Opponents yards per game dropped over 100 with Watt playing, falling to an elite 288.8. Likewise, turnovers improved dramatically. The AFC North contenders had a +13 differential, with Watt single-handedly accounting for two interceptions and one forced fumble.

Conclusion

Take Watt’s standing in the futures market as a sign of confidence. Over the past few seasons, the five-time Pro Bowler has been one of the most dominant defensive players in the NFL. Fully healthy, and with his team depending on his production, he’s sure to end the year with his second Defensive Player of the Year behind him. 

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