NFL Christmas Complete Betting Guide: Cowboys-Commanders, Lions-Vikings, Broncos-Chiefs Top Picks
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Christmas Day brings a full slate of NFL action, with three games spread across Netflix and Prime Video. From viewing details and live odds to best bets and prop angles, this guide breaks down how the betting markets are shaping up for all three matchups on the holiday schedule.
NFL Christmas Central
Best Bets: Kalshi Top 3 | DAL-WSH | DEN-KC
Props: Xmas Top 5 | DET-MIN
Anytime TDs: Xmas Top 3
Where to Watch Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders
- Stadium: Northwest Stadium
- Location: Landover, Maryland
- Where to Watch: Netflix
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Betting Odds
- Spread: DAL -8.5 (-108) | WAS +8.5 (-112)
- Total: Over 50.5 (-106) | Under (-114)
- Moneyline: DAL -480 | WAS +370
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Kalshi Odds
- Chance: DAL 79% | WAS 21%
- Spread: DAL -9.5 Yes (49¢) | No (52¢)
- Total: Over 51.5 Yes (48¢) | No (54¢)
DAL vs WSH Matchup Board: Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates
Cowboys vs Commanders Best Bet: Washington Under 20.5 Pts (-130)
Dallas games have been an over bettor’s playground most of the season, but this matchup sets up differently once you dig into Washington’s offensive situation. With Jayden Daniels already shut down, the Commanders now find themselves without Marcus Mariota as well, forcing third-string quarterback Josh Johnson into the lineup. Johnson hasn’t started a game since 2021 and has logged just 26 offensive snaps all season, making this a difficult spot to expect consistent scoring.
The situation worsens with Zach Ertz out for the year due to a torn ACL, stripping Washington of its most reliable safety valve. Expect a conservative approach built around the run, especially with a quarterback making his first start in years. While Dallas’ defense has struggled mightily through the air, allowing 257.8 passing yards per game, it has been far more competent against the run, holding opponents to 122.3 rushing yards per game, right around league average.
Add in cold conditions — with frigid temperatures and potential snow — and Washington’s path to reaching the low 20s becomes narrow. Sustaining drives, let alone finishing them, will be a challenge under these circumstances.
Cowboys vs Commanders Top Prop: George Pickens Over 5.5 Rec (-130)
Even with playoff hopes off the table, Dallas still has an incentive to keep its offense humming on Christmas Day, and George Pickens lines up as a primary beneficiary. Washington’s secondary has struggled to limit wide receiver volume all season, allowing 12.1 receptions per game to the position, the 11th-most in the league. That vulnerability sets up well for a receiver who thrives in isolation.
Pickens should see plenty of one-on-one looks on the perimeter, especially in a game script that favors Dallas. With Washington expected to have difficulty sustaining drives behind Josh Johnson, the Cowboys are likely to control possession and rack up extra offensive snaps. More time on the field translates to more opportunities, and clearing 5.5 catches fits neatly with both the matchup and expected flow of the game.
Where to Watch Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
- Stadium: U.S. Bank Stadium
- Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
- Where to Watch: Netflix
- Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds
- Spread: DET -7.5 (-102) | MIN +7.5 (-120)
- Total: Over 43.5 (-105) | Under (-115)
- Moneyline: DET -390 | MIN +310
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Kalshi Odds
- Chance: DET 75% | MIN 25%
- Spread: DET -7.5 Yes (50¢) | No (51¢)
- Total: Over 42.5 Yes (54¢) | No (47¢)
DET vs MIN Matchup Board: Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates
Lions vs Vikings Bet Bet: Detroit -6.5 Alt. Spread (-136)
Teasing Detroit down to -6.5 offers solid protection without overpaying on juice, guarding against a one-score outcome while still aligning with how wide this matchup looks. A converted touchdown margin feels very much in play.
Detroit enters a must-win spot with one of the league’s most balanced offenses, ranking third overall, third in passing, 12th in rushing, and second in scoring. Minnesota sits near the bottom in every offensive category — 28th overall, 25th rushing, 28th passing, and 26th scoring — and the gap widens further with J.J. McCarthy out.
The Vikings will go back to undrafted rookie Max Brosmer, who has struggled across five appearances, against a Detroit defense that ranks sixth with 41 sacks. Any conservative approach is also undermined with safety valve TE T.J. Hockenson out and running back Jordan Mason sidelined, leaving Aaron Jones without his committee partner in the backfield.
With playoff stakes high and a clear quarterback mismatch, Detroit is positioned to pull away.
Lions vs Vikings Top Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 112.5 Rush+Rec Yds (-114)
Detroit’s path back to the postseason likely runs through Jahmyr Gibbs, and this matchup sets up as a get-right spot. After a stretch of quieter outings following his breakout against the New York Giants, the Lions have every incentive to re-center the offense around their most explosive playmaker. Minnesota’s run defense hasn’t been built to slow down dynamic backs, and that opens the door for Gibbs to make his impact both on the ground and in space. Expect Dan Campbell to emphasize early touches and let the third-year star dictate tempo. With his dual-threat usage, clearing 112.5 rushing and receiving yards is well within reach.
Where to Watch Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Stadium: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Location: Kansas City, MO
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
- Spread: DEN -13.5 (-110) | KC +13.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 36.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
- Moneyline: DEN -1200 | KC +750
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Kalshi Odds
- Chance: DEN 87% | KC 13%
- Spread: DEN -13.5 Yes (51¢) | No (50¢)
- Total: Over 36.5 Yes (50¢) | No (51¢)
DEN vs KC Matchup Board: Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates
Broncos vs Chiefs Best Bet: KC Under 10.5 Pts (-122)
The Kansas City Chiefs’ season has unraveled quickly, and Christmas night sets up as another uphill climb. With Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew both lost to ACL injuries, the Chiefs will turn to second-year quarterback Chris Oladokun, who has logged just 31 snaps all season and has appeared in only two career games. That’s a tall ask against a Denver defense built to overwhelm inexperienced quarterbacks. With KC’s most dynamic pass catcher, Rashee Rice, and Tyquan Thornton both sidelined, passing opportunities figure to be scarce.
The Denver Broncos enter off their first loss in over three months but remain driven by an elite defense that has piled up 63 sacks, putting pressure at the center of everything they do. Denver is also stout against the run, allowing just 90.2 rushing yards per game, limiting Kansas City’s ability to lean on a conservative game plan.
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Broncos vs Chiefs Best Anytime TD: Courtland Sutton (+135)
If Denver controls this game the way the matchup suggests, Courtland Sutton should find himself with multiple scoring chances. The veteran wideout has quietly been one of the Broncos’ most reliable finishers, scoring in three of his past four games, including back-to-back weeks. He leads Denver with seven receiving touchdowns and is tied for the team lead with 16 red-zone targets, underscoring how central he’s been when the field shrinks.
Kansas City managed to keep Sutton out of the end zone in the Week 11 meeting, but the usage was still there. He saw eight targets and hauled in four catches, and this version of the Chiefs offense is far less equipped to flip the script. With Denver likely winning the possession battle and generating sustained drives, Sutton’s role near the goal line puts him squarely in play to cash this ticket.
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