NFL Week 17 Kalshi Picks: Best Bets for Christmas Day

Three divisional matchups take center stage this Christmas as the NFL enters the penultimate week of the regular season. The early window features the Washington Commanders (4-11) hosting the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) at 1:00 p.m. ET, followed by a mid-afternoon meeting between the Detroit Lions (8-7) and the Minnesota Vikings (7-8). The day’s finale sees the AFC-leading Denver Broncos (12-3) head to Kansas City, where they’ll look to exploit a 6-9 Chiefs roster currently operating without superstar QB Patrick Mahomes.

With insights from our advanced model, here are three bets you should make on Kalshi:

1. Cowboys -7.5 (Yes, 49%) @ Washington Commanders

SportsGrid Projection: Cowboys by 10.0 Points

• The Cowboys handled Washington with ease in their first meeting this season, securing a dominant 44–22 victory at AT&T Stadium.
• Washington is expected to start third-string quarterback Josh Johnson after starter Jayden Daniels (elbow) was shut down for the season, while backup Marcus Mariota is dealing with a hand injury.
• Dallas currently boasts the league’s fifth-ranked scoring offense, averaging 28.3 points per game behind a high-volume passing attack.
• The Commanders’ defense yields 26.9 points per game (sixth-most in the NFL), while their offense has struggled to keep pace, ranking 24th overall (20.6 PPG).

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2. MIN WR Jalen Nailor Anytime TD vs Detroit Lions (Yes, 17%)

SportsGrid Projection: 0.3 TDs

• Despite operating as Minnesota’s WR3, Nailor is tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (four) and ranks second in red zone targets (12).
• Detroit’s defense has struggled against the pass all year, allowing the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers (20) and ranking 25th in passing yards allowed per game.

3. DEN WR Troy Franklin YES 33.5 Receiving Yards (55%) @ Kansas City Chiefs

SportsGrid Projection: 45.8 receiving yards for Franklin

• Franklin has cleared this line in back-to-back games, producing 66 and 85 yards, respectively, in those contests.
• The 22-year-old easily hit this mark against the Chiefs back in Week 11, catching four of eight targets for 84 yards.
• With teammate Pat Bryant sidelined (concussion), Franklin is locked into a consistent WR2 role and currently ranks third in the NFL in deep targets, providing high-upside yardage potential.

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