Super Bowl MVP Betting Trends: Sam Darnold Favored as JSN Becomes Top Liability
Joe Cervenka
Host · Writer
In a league where narrative is king, Super Bowl LX is giving us a “from the scrap heap to the summit" storyline that even Hollywood would find a bit too on the nose. We’ve got a rematch of the Malcolm Butler game, but instead of Brady vs. Russ, it’s Sam Darnold vs. Drake Maye—two QBs who have spent the season torching preseason expectations and betting slips alike.
Whether you’re backing the “resurrection of Darnold" or the “rise of Maye," the BetMGM trade desk is already feeling the heat. Here is how the public is putting their money where their mouth is for Super Bowl MVP.
Super Bowl MVP Betting Trends: The Public’s Love Affair with the Long ShotsWhen the markets opened, Sam Darnold was a comfortable +600. After a blistering NFC Championship performance where he looked less like a guy “seeing ghosts" and more like a guy haunting defensive coordinators, his odds have plummeted to +115. He is currently the odds-on favorite and the biggest magnet for both volume and high-stakes action.
But while the QBs are the standard play, the real story—and the biggest headache for the bookies—is out wide.
The Movers and Shakers
The line movement at BetMGM tells you everything you need to know about where the smart (and loud) money is flowing.
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Sam Darnold (QB, SEA): +600 ➔ +115 (The favorite’s tax is in full effect).
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Drake Maye (QB, NE): +1100 ➔ +230 (The sophomore respect is growing).
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA): +2000 ➔ +500 (The biggest jump in the top tier).
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Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA): +5000 ➔ +700 (Value seekers are hammering the ground game).
Ticket Count & Handle: Who the Public is Backing
The “Most Tickets" column is essentially a popularity contest, while the “Most Handle" tells us where the whales are swimming. In both categories, the Seahawks’ signal-caller is the undisputed king.
| Player | % of Total Tickets | % of Total Handle |
| Sam Darnold | 11.5% | 25.3% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 10.4% | 16.6% |
| Drake Maye | 9.7% | 12.5% |
Blitz the Books with SportsGrid’s 4- & 5-Star NFL Game Picks and NFL Player Prop Bets.
Darnold accounting for over one-quarter of the total money wagered on the MVP market is a staggering figure. It shows that bettors aren’t just speculating; they are convinced that if Seattle wins, the narrative trophy follows the Lombardi.
The Liability: Where the Books Could Bleed
Sportsbooks hate a “perfect storm," and right now, that storm is named Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN is currently the #1 biggest liability for BetMGM. After leading the league in receiving yards this season, bettors are banking on him pulling a Cooper Kupp—turning a Super Bowl into a personal highlight reel that the voters simply can’t ignore.
Speaking of Cooper Kupp, despite the Seahawks being the favorite, he remains the #2 liability, proving that bettors still have a long memory for veteran greatness when the lights are brightest.
| Player | Position | Current Odds | Liability Rank |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR (SEA) | +500 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR (SEA) | +6600 | 2 |
| Sam Darnold | QB (SEA) | +115 | 3 |
Super Bowl MVP Market Closing Bell
The logic is simple: Quarterbacks have won 34 of the 59 previous Super Bowl MVPs (57.6%). But with a spread of Seahawks -4.5, the market is leaning heavily toward a Seattle celebration. If you’re looking to fade the Darnold chalk, the JSN at +500 offers the best intersection of narrative and “betting-against-the-house" value.
All BetMGM data is based on straight bets
