NFL Christmas on Netflix Best Bets: Cowboys vs Commanders
Gabriel Santiago
Host · Writer
NFL season and all its spoils are in full throttle. The holidays have arrived, and there are betting opportunities nearly every day between now and next February. We’ve got you covered for Week 17, which commences with a divisional showdown on Christmas!
Where to Watch Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
- Stadium: Northwest Stadium
- Location: Landover, MD
- Where to Watch: Netflix
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Betting Odds
- Spread: DAL -7 (-105) | WAS +7 (-115)
- Total: Over 50.5 (-106) | Under (-114)
- Moneyline: DAL -330 | WAS +265
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Kalshi Odds
- Chance: DAL 74% | WAS 26%
- Spread: DAL -7.5 Yes (47¢) | No (53¢)
- Total: Over 51.5 Yes (46¢) | No (54¢)
The Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) are officially eliminated from postseason contention, but there is still business to take care of. To lead off the NFL’s Christmas 2025 slate on Netflix, Dallas will visit the Washington Commanders (4-11) at Northwest Stadium.
At this point, these classic NFC-East foes have only bragging rights and draft positioning to play for. The Cowboys definitely boast a top-five offense, but their defense ranks 31st in scoring (30.3 PPG) and 30th in yards allowed (380.1 YPG). Conversely, Washington has been mediocre across the board. NFL.com lists the Commanders at 26th in its latest power rankings; Dallas lands 19th.
With reigning-OROY Jayden Daniels (elbow) out for the season, Washington will start veteran quarterback Marcus Mariota for the remainder of 2025. Mariota has seen action in 11 contests this year, and in the process, the Commanders have scored 19.9 PPG.
Cowboys signal-caller Dak Prescott (73.0 QBR) is having perhaps his most efficient season ever, but that has not always led to wins in 2025. Still, Prescott’s 28-10 TD-INT ratio is stellar. Mostly, this group has been hampered by a porous defensive backfield—Dallas has given up 257.8 YPG through the air, which is the worst clip in football.
ESPN Analytics currently gives the Boys a 56.1% chance of victory against Washington. Regardless, Dallas has not covered a spread larger than -3.5 points this year. With this game being played just outside of the nation’s capital, I have a tough time seeing value in the Cowboys at that pricing. I’ll take Commanders +6.5!
Best Bet: Commanders +7 (-115)
I fully acknowledge that Dallas has been a dream team for over bettors this season, displaying a 10-4-1 record in the totals market. Still, I don’t mind taking under 50.5 combined points with frigid weather (and possibly snow) on the horizon.
As noted, Washington is scoring less than 20.0 PPG with Mariota in the lineup. He will also be forced to operate without the ever-reliable Zach Ertz, who is out for the year with a torn ACL.
Obviously, the Cowboys can light up any scoreboard in a hurry via receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, but I don’t see that happening in cold, unfriendly territory. Prepare for the Commanders to come out motivated against their hated rivals, as not much has gone well for Washington in 2025.
Best Bet: Under 50.5 (-120)
Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily NFL Game Picks and NFL Prop Picks.
NFL Christmas Best Bets: Cowboys vs. Commanders
- Commanders +7 (-115)
- Cowboys-Commanders Under 50.5 (-114)
Week 17 brings numerous opportunities to set a profitable tone on the gridiron. Best of luck!
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