The Texas Rangers are set to lock horns with the Baltimore Orioles. You might have kicked off this season expecting the Rangers to dominate, but let’s take a moment to acknowledge the stellar performance of the Orioles, who’ve been anything but “wasting away” at the bottom of the AL East.

With the Orioles’ impressive home record, this game seems primed for excitement. However, my money’s on Texas (+115) for this one. Let’s break it down.

The Orioles are putting their faith in the young right-handed pitcher, Grayson Rodriguez. His 4.48 xFIP and 25% strikeout rate over the past 30 days are respectable, but where he’s struggling is in his ground ball rate, standing at only 35%. Meaning a staggering 65% of balls off his pitches are line drives or fly balls – a recipe for trouble.

And his splits against left-handed and right-handed batters? They’re cause for concern over the past 30 days. Against lefties, Rodriguez’s .452 wOBA and a substantial .429 ISO power number are glaring red flags. When facing righties, things don’t get much better: a .393 wOBA and .300 ISO power number.

On the flip side, let’s delve into the prowess of the Rangers, a team recognized as one of the best-hitting teams in MLB. Particularly against right-handed pitching, the first five guys in their lineup bring some impressive numbers. Marcus Semien boasts a .222 ISO power number, followed by Corey Seager at .263, Nate Lowe at .227, Adolis Garcia at .240, and Josh Jung at .254.

While there’s a bit of a dip with Jonah Heim and Robbie Grossman, both switch hitters will be batting from the left side today.

On the mound for the Rangers is right-handed pitcher Jon Gray. His xFIP stands a tad high over the past month at 4.75, and his K rate leaves something to be desired at under 20%. However, his splits paint a favorable picture. Against lefties, Gray’s stats shine with a .261 wOBA and an excellent .107 ISO power number. Righties don’t fare much better with a .260 wOBA and a .143 ISO power number.

So, with all that in mind, I’m tipping my cap to the Texas Rangers for this matchup. Even with the Orioles’ commendable home record, the Rangers’ stellar hitting lineup might just be enough to swing this game in their favor.