Ben DiGiacomo

Predicting Justin Fields's Longest Rush: Over 15.5 Yards

Tonight is the Thursday Night Football matchup of our dreams as the Washington Commanders host the Chicago Bears. On the bright side, ideally, we&#8217;ll see some points being scored as the Commanders and Bears combined to score 59 points in Week 3, so we worked up an ultimate same-game parlay once again that we&#8217;re hoping smacks.
At nearly +1100 value, be on the lookout for profit boosts to push this to +1650.
Let&#8217;s ride.
Check out SportsGrid&#8217;s<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/picks"> NFL game picks</a> and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/player-props">NFL Props Picks</a> all Season Long.
<h2>Leg 1: DJ Moore 40+ Yards</h2>
Having confidence in Justin Fields is difficult right now, but against a putrid Denver Broncos defense last week, he passed for 335 yards and four touchdowns. Do we expect similar production again? Absolutely not, but this Commanders&#8217; secondary is putrid enough for Moore to feast. He&#8217;s eclipsed the 40-yard mark in three straight games, exceeding 100 yards in two of them, and now has an ideal matchup against rookie cornerback Emmanuel Forbes, who should&#8217;ve contemplated quitting football after AJ Brown went for 175 yards and two touchdowns on him last week. We&#8217;ll bank on him at least getting 40 yards, but we wouldn&#8217;t blame anyone for bumping this to 50 yards for added value.
<h2>Leg 2: Cole Kmet 25+ Yards</h2>
Doubling up on Bears&#8217; pass catchers feels like a disaster waiting to happen, but hear me out. In Week 3, Cole Kmet and Moore combined for a 51% target share, signaling that these two are clearly Fields&#8217; favorite options in a high-scoring affair. Kmet is coming off the most productive game of his career, where he went for seven receptions, 85 yards, and two touchdowns, so we&#8217;ll look for him to carry that production over. He&#8217;s exceeded 25 yards in three of four games this season, with the lone miss being an outing where he went for 22 yards, so we&#8217;re confident in throwing him in this parlay at that 25-yard threshold.
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<h2>Leg 3: Brian Robinson 50+ Rushing Yards</h2>
Brian Robinson has solidified himself as the Commanders&#8217; lead running back, averaging over 15 carries per game. He&#8217;s exceeded 50 yards in three of four games, with his lone miss being a 45-yard performance against a stout Eagles&#8217; run defense last week. With Washington currently sitting as a 5.5-point favorite, the expected game script should lean to Washington leaning on the run game more, so we&#8217;ll bank on another 50-yard outing from Robinson.
<h2>Leg 4: Antonio Gibson OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards</h2>
Sticking in the backfield, Antonio Gibson&#8217;s role as a runner is essentially non-existent with Robinson, but we&#8217;ve seen the Commanders use him as a receiver in spots. There is no better matchup, as the Bears defense has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season, nearly 60 yards per game. Washington always tries to find a way to get Gibson some touches, so look for them to target him a couple of times through the air.
<h2>Leg 5: Curis Samuel OVER 2.5 Receptions</h2>
Looking at the target volume over the past four weeks, the Commanders do not have a clear-cut top wide receiver. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are a bit overvalued tonight with their props, so we&#8217;re weary about throwing them in, but Curtis Samuel is flying under the radar. We&#8217;re comfortable backing either his yardage or reception prop. Still, as Samuel is coming off a seven-reception performance in Week 4, we&#8217;re more confident in him having three receptions against a Bears&#8217; secondary that has allowed the fourth most passing yards this season.
All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
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We have a Thursday Night Football matchup tonight between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders, so we worked up a +1100 parlay that we don't see losing.

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