TST Best Bets 7/14
Nick Wire
Host · Writer
This afternoon, the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals kick off, bringing together the tournament's final four contenders. AT&T Stadium will host Kylian Mbappé and France in a heavyweight showdown against Spain, a rematch of the 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinals. Spain won the match, 5-4, led by teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, who scored two goals in the win.
France is seeking its third consecutive appearance in the World Cup Final after winning the tournament in 2018 and falling to Argentina in 2022. While both nations have impressed throughout the tournament, France remains a top contender to make a run to another finals match. Spain, on the other hand, passed the round of 16 for the first time since 2010, when they won the Title.
This is a dual of the #1 and #2 FIFA ranked teams.
First Pick: France vs Spain – under 2.5 goals
Rundown: When France beat Paraguay in the quarterfinals – it happened painfully slow. Paraguay committed to stacking the box and tried to rely on breakout opportunities. They just didn’t have the firepower to break through. The France offense is relentless and will beat teams in many ways – but the Spain defense is top-notch.
Spain plans on delivering a different approach. Spain will try and keep possession – but even if that doesn’t come to fruition they still have a stifling back end. They lead the tournament in share of possession (65.8 percent) across their six games so far. Led by goalkeeper Unai Simón, Spain have only conceded one goal.
On the flip side, France has conceded two total goals throughout the tournament. Spain fields the best defense in the tournament, but France is not far behind.
Second Pick: France over Spain -0.5
Rundown: This game will be a low-scoring grind. Expect France to strike on a breakaway – but otherwise be held in containment. It should be noted that Spain are excellent at recovery work once conceding the ball – they will look to keep possession at their normal high rate.
Spain won the last two matchups between these squads (5-4 in the 2025 UEFA semifinals, 2-1 in the 2024 Euro semifinals). However, France have looked dominant this tournament. France can win despite lack of possession time – and their offensive front lines are world class.
The France firepower four of Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Désiré Doué won’t hold the ball long and they won’t rely on slow build-up – they will score in a flash.
