UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC Heavyweight title fight headlines UFC 321 as champion Tom Aspinall faces No. 1-ranked and former interim champion Ciryl “Bon Gamin" Gane.
- Arena: Etihad Arena
- Location: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- Where to Watch: PPV
- Date: October 25, 2025
- Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
UFC 321: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista
No. 2-ranked bantamweight Umar Nurmagomedov takes on No. 9-ranked Mario Bautista. Nurmagomedov is fresh off the first loss of his 19-fight career, losing to the champion Merab Dvalishvili. Bautista is riding an eight-fight win streak, beating Patchy Mix in his previous outing.
Bautista is one inch taller and has a three-inch reach advantage. Neither man has much knockout power, dropping opponents 0.16 and 0.13 times per 15 minutes. Bautista is more active on the feet, landing 1.75 more significant strikes per minute, but he also absorbs 2.3 more. Nurmagomedov has the grappling edge, finishing 1.59 more takedowns per 15 minutes.
Both are competent in any area this fight takes place, but Nurmagomedov’s takedown edge should be the difference in this bout. However, he’s a -650 favorite straight up, so we’ll take him to win by decision to make those odds more friendly.
💰 Best Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov by Points (-150)
UFC 321: Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern
No. 1-ranked women’s strawweight Virna Jandiroba faces No. 5-ranked Mackenzie Dern. Jandiroba has reeled off five straight wins, beating Yan Xiaonan in her most recent match. Dern has won two in a row, but she dropped her previous two fights before that.
Dern is one inch taller, but Jandiroba has a one-inch reach advantage. Neither woman has much knockout power, but surprisingly, Dern, who is known for her grappling, lands 1.34 more significant strikes per minute. However, she also absorbs 1.35 more. Jandiroba is the more aggressive wrestler, finishing 1.48 more takedowns per 15 minutes. She also has a slight edge in submissions, but it’s insignificant. It should be noted that Dern has terrible takedowns and takedown defense.
These two have faced each other before, with Dern winning a close fight. However, I think the most intelligent bet is that this one goes the distance.
💰 Best Bet: Jandiroba-Dern goes the Distance (-112)
UFC 321: Tom Aspinall (c) vs. Ciryl Gane
- Odds to Win: Aspinall -400 | Gane +300
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -175 | Submission +250 | Decision +490
- Will the fight go the Distance? Yes +490 | No -800
Tom Aspinall will make the first defense of his UFC Heavyweight title (his other two defenses were of the Interim belt) against Ciryl Gane. Aspinall is riding a three-fight streak, his only loss over his last 12 bouts being due to a knee injury. Gane has won two straight after losing his last shot at the title against Jon Jones.
Aspinall is one inch taller, but Gane has a three-inch reach advantage. Aspinall has a massive power edge, dropping opponents 4.09 times per 15 minutes (3.83 more than Gane). He also lands 8.07 significant strikes per minute (2.81 more than Gane), while both fighters absorb a similar volume. Gane’s wrestling is practically non-existent, while Aspinall finishes 3.27 takedowns per 15 minutes and locks on 1.02 more submissions.
Gane’s takedown defense rate at 43 percent is not strong enough to prevent Aspinall from choosing where this fight takes place. Gane is a technical striker, but he could be outmatched wherever this fight takes place. Aspinall is a considerable favorite at -400, and even his double chance odds aren’t attractive at -290. There’s a good chance the champ takes this fight to the ground and finishes it there, so we’ll look for him to lock on a submission to end it.
💰 Best Bet: Tom Aspinall by Submission (+270)
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