UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A lightweight fight headlines UFC Fight Night 265 as No. 1-ranked Arman “Ahalkalakets" Tsarukyan faces No. 6-ranked Dan “The Hangman" Hooker.
- Arena: Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena
- Location: Al Rayyan, Qatar
- Where to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
- Date: November 22, 2025
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
UFC Fight Night: Volkan Oezdemir vs. Alonzo Menifield
No. 9-ranked light heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir takes on No. 14-ranked Alonzo Menifield. Oezdemir is coming off a loss, but he finished his two previous opponents before that. Menifield is riding a two-fight win streak, but is 2-2 over his past four.
Oezdemir is two inches taller, but Menifield has a one-inch reach advantage. Both men drop opponents 0.6 times per 15 minutes, but Oezdemir lands 1.16 more significant strikes per minute, while Menifield absorbs 0.46 fewer. Their grappling statistics are very similar, but neither man should look to take this fight to the ground.
This fight should be a pick ’em, with Menifield sitting at +186; he’s the value bet.
💰 Best Bet: Menifield to win (+186)
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry
Former welterweight champion and No. 2-ranked Belal Muhammad looks to interrupt Ian Machado Garry’s title aspirations. Muhammad lost his title in May, but had an 11-fight unbeaten streak before that. Garry is 16-1 over his career, his only loss being to Shavkat Rakhmonov in December 2024.
Garry is four inches taller and has a 2.5-inch reach advantage. He also has the power edge, but it’s primarily due to Muhammad being a volume finisher rather than a power puncher. They land significant strikes at a similar rate, but Garry avoids 1.01 more per minute. Muhammad will have the grappling edge, finishing 1.22 more takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t think either man will be a submission threat to the other.
Muhammad has a pace and pressure that can break most fighters, but he didn’t look good in his last fight against Jack Della Maddalena. Additionally, this will be a three-round fight rather than a five-round bout, diminishing his endurance edge. Garry also knows how to use his significant size advantage and distance to his benefit.
💰 Best Bet: Garry by Points (-110)
UFC Fight Night: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker
- Odds to Win: Tsarukyan -600 | Hooker +420
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +105 | Submission +320 | Decision +160
- Will the fight go the Distance? Yes +170 | No -220
Arman Tsarukyan will enter the cage against Dan Hooker as a huge betting favorite. Tsarukyan has a four-fight win streak, beating the former champion Charles Oliveira last time out. Hooker has a three-fight win streak, but his previous two were by split decision.
Hooker is five inches taller and has a 2.5-inch reach advantage. He also drops opponents almost twice as often per 15 minutes. Hooker is the more active striker, landing 1.24 more significant strikes per minute, but absorbing 2.88 more. Tsarukyan will have the wrestling edge, finishing 2.52 more takedowns per 15 minutes, while Hooker is more of a submission threat.
Tsarukyan is a -600 favorite, which in mixed martial arts, almost always warrants a bet on the other side. However, I think Tsarukyan is peaking and could find the finish via ground-and-pound. Otherwise, a bet on Hooker would be where the value is.
💰 Best Bet: Tsarukyan by KO/TKO (+155)
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