UFC 310: Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura Predictions | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A flyweight title bout headlines UFC 310 as the champion Alexandre “The Cannibal" Pantoja faces organizational newcomer and Rizin Bantamweight champion Kai Asakura.
- Date: Saturday, December 7, 2024 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Paradise, Nevada, United States – T-Mobile Arena | TV: PPV
Bon Gamin Faces Drago
No. 2 ranked heavyweight Ciryl Gane will stand opposite No. 3 Alexander Volkov. Gane is 2-2 over his previous four fights, beating Serghei Spivac his last time out. Volkov has won three straight and is fresh off beating fellow heavy-hitter Sergei Pavlovich in June.
Volkov is three inches taller, but Gane has a one-inch reach advantage. Both men have heavy hands but only average 0.29 and 0.26 knockdowns per 15 minutes. However, they average over five significant strikes landed per minute. They are statistically similar across the board, but Volkov has better takedown defense. Still, wrestling shouldn’t play a huge factor in this contest.
At -400, Gane is a massive favorite. However, Volkov’s experience and size offer value. Take Drago to win at +290.
Is the Future Nomadic?
Two undefeated welterweights will meet when No. 3 ranked Shavkat Rakhmonov faces No. 7 Ian Machado Garry. Rakhmonov has finished all 18 opponents that have stood across from him (8 KO/TKO, 10 Submissions). Garry has seven knockouts and one submission over his 15 career fights but has gone to decision in his last three bouts.
Garry is two inches taller, but Rakhmonov has a 2.5-inch reach advantage. Garry averages 0.32 more knockdowns per 15 minutes but tends to finish opponents with volume. Garry also averages 1.38 more significant strikes landed per minute but absorbs 0.76 more. Rakhmonov will have the takedown edge, averaging twice as many per 15 minutes, with a 100 percent defense rate—the Kazakh also averages 1.48 more submissions per 15 minutes.
Rakhmonov is a considerable favorite at -410, and I think it’s warranted. Despite his undefeated record, Garry hasn’t impressed me. Take Rakhmonov to win by KO/TKO or Submission at -155.
Flyweight Championship Main Event
Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs Kai Asakura
- Odds to Win: Pantoja -265 | Kai +200
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +165 | Submission +170 | Decision +185
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +192 | No -260
It’ll be UFC champion vs. Rizin champion when Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Asakura take the cage. Pantoja has won six straight, three in title fights. Kai is on a two-fight win streak, his last bout being for the Rizin title.
Kai is three inches taller and will have a two-inch reach advantage. Kai has no UFC statistics, but Pantoja lands a few more significant strikes than he absorbs at 4.41 and 3.97. He’s an active grappler, looking for 2.61 takedowns and 0.84 submissions per 15 minutes. In Kai’s last bout, he showed susceptibility to the overhand right and found himself defending a guillotine early. Despite winning with a counter knee in the second round, Kai appeared overly aggressive and ate a lot of blows.
I always look for an edge with the underdog in mixed martial arts, but I don’t see it in this one. Pantoja has previously shown some slowdown in later rounds, but I think he’s the more skilled fighter. Take Pantoja to win at -265.
UFC 310: Pantoja vs Asakura Betting Card
- Volkov to win (+290)
- Rakhmonov by KO/TKO or Submission (-155)
- Pantoja to win (-265)
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
