UFC 311: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2 Predictions | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A lightweight title bout headlines UFC 311 as the champion, Islam Makhachev, faces No. 1 ranked Arman “Akhalkalakets" Tsarukyan.
- Date: Saturday, January 18, 2025 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Inglewood, California, United States – Intuit Dome | TV: PPV
Sweet Dreams for BJP?
No. 2 ranked light heavyweight Jiri Prochazka will face fellow former champion No. 3 ranked Jamahal Hill. Prochazka has two losses in his last three fights, both to current champion Alex Pereira. Before that, he was on a 13-fight win streak with 12 finishes (11 TKO/KO, 1 Submission). Hill is also coming off a loss to Pereira but was on a four-fight win streak before that.
Hill is one inch taller, but Prochazka has a one-inch reach advantage. Both men have plenty of one-punch power, with Hill having the slight edge. Hill also lands 1.8 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.08 fewer. Prochazka averages more takedowns, but I don’t see it going to the ground.
Prochazka is a wild fighter and, on paper, will be outclassed on the feet, but there is something weird about his power. Despite the numbers leaning toward Hill, take Prochazka to win by TKO/KO at +200.
Bantamweight Championship Co-Main Event
Freshly anointed champion Merab “The Machine" Dvalishvili makes his first defense against Umar “Young Eagle" Nurmagomedov. Dvalishvili has won 11 straight, including beating Sean O’Malley for the title. Nurmagomedov is undefeated at 18-0, beating Cory Sandhagen in his last fight.
Nurmagomedov is two inches taller and has a one-inch reach advantage. Both men showcase a lot of volume on the feet, with Nurmagomedov landing 0.11 more significant strikes per minute and absorbing 0.95 fewer. Both men are also highly talented wrestlers. Dvalishvili averages 6.09 takedowns per 15 minutes to Nurmagomedov’s 3.98, but the Russian has a 100 percent takedown defense rate.
The big x-factor in this fight is Dvalishvili’s gas tank. His pace is legendary, and if Nurmagomedov can’t keep up, the championship rounds will be tough. Merab is a big underdog at +225, so there is too much value to ignore.
Lightweight Championship Main Event
Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan
- Odds to Win: Makhachev -350 | Tsarukyan +255
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +340 | Submission +300 | Decision -165
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes -152 | No +120
Islam Makhachev makes his fourth title defense with a rematch against Arman Tsarukyan. Makhachev is riding a 14-fight win streak and has only one loss over his 27-fight career. Tsarukyan has three losses over 25 contests, one in his second career fight, one against Mateusz Gamrot, and one in his UFC debut against Makhachev.
Makhachev is three inches taller, but Tsarukyan has a two-inch reach advantage. Both men have similar one-punch knockout power at 0.35 and 0.32 knockdowns per 15 minutes. However, Tsarukyan lands 1.14 more significant strikes per minute and only absorbs 0.3 more. Surprisingly, Tsarukyan is slightly more active as a wrestler, but Makhachev has a 90 percent takedown defense rate.
I want to pick Makhachev to win this fight, but the odds should be much closer than they are. I can’t turn down Tsarukyan at +250.
UFC 311: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2 Betting Card
- Prochazka by TKO/KO (+200)
- Dvalishvili to win (+225)
- Tsarukyan to win (+250)
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