UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas 2 Predictions | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A women’s strawweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 249 as the No. 6 ranked Mackenzie Dern faces No. 8 ranked Amanda Ribas.
- Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025 | Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Enterprise, Nevada, United States – UFC Apex | TV: ESPN2
The Russian and The Action Man
Unranked middleweights Chris “The Action Man" Curtis and Roman Kopylov will stand opposite each other on Saturday. Curtis is 5-3-1 in the UFC, coming off a loss to Brendan Allen. Kopylov is 5-1 over his last six fights, beating Cesar Almeida his previous time out.
Kopylov is two inches taller, but Curtis has a half-inch reach advantage. Kopylov drops opponents 0.86 times per 15 minutes to Curtis’s 0.48. However, Curtis is a good boxer and lands 1.43 more significant strikes per minute. Kopylov completes 1.2 takedowns per 15 minutes, but both men have takedown defense rates above 80 percent.
Kopylov is a -265 favorite, but the odds should be much closer. Curtis is coming off an injury, but he’s an excellent value bet at +210.
The Argentine Dagger and Mocambique
Unranked welterweights Santiago Ponzinibbio and Carlston Harris will face off. Ponzinibbio is on a two-fight losing skid and has lost four of his previous five fights. Harris is coming off a loss but is 2-2 over his last four.
Both men are six feet tall, but Harris has a three-inch reach advantage. Ponzinibbio has the one-punch power edge, dropping opponents 0.74 times per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio lands 1.56 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 1.89 more. Harris averages 1.38 more takedowns and 0.79 submissions per 15 minutes.
Ponzinibbio is favored at -138 but hasn’t strung together wins since 2018. Despite inconsistencies, there’s value with Harris at +112.
Women’s Strawweight Main Event
Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas
- Odds to Win: Dern -192 | Ribas +154
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +460 | Submission +320 | Decision -210
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes -196 | No +152
No. 6 ranked women’s strawweight Mackenzie Dern faces No. 8 ranked Amanda Ribas. Dern is coming off a win over Loopy Godinez but dropped her two fights before that. Ribas has alternated wins and losses, going 4-4 over her last eight fights.
Both women are five feet four inches, but Ribas has a three-inch reach advantage. Despite improvement, Dern is a terrible striker. Ribas lands 1.2 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 0.72 fewer. Dern is known for her submission game, but Ribas averages 1.19 more takedowns per 15 minutes. Dern is more dangerous on the ground, but getting the fight there could be challenging.
The two previously fought in 2019, with Ribas winning a decision. I don’t see this fight ending differently. Take Ribas to win by decision at -105.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas 2 Betting Card
- Curtis to win (+210)
- Harris to win (+112)
- Ribas to win by decision (-105)
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