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UFC Tampa: Covington vs Buckley Predictions | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets

Tyler Mason

Host · Writer

UFC Tampa: Covington vs Buckley Predictions | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets

A welterweight bout headlines UFC Tampa as the No. 6 ranked Colby “Chaos" Covington faces No. 9 ranked Joaquin “New Mansa" Buckley.

Date: Saturday, December 14, 2024 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Tampa, Florida, United States – Amalie Arena | TV: ESPN

Starboy & Bulldog

No. 9 ranked flyweight Manel “Starboy" Kape faces No. 12 Bruno “Bulldog" Gustavo da Silva. Kape is coming off a loss to Muhammad Mokaev but reeled off four straight wins before that. Da Silva is riding a four-fight win streak, winning all by finish (3 KO/TKO, 1 Submission).

Kape is one inch taller and has a three-inch reach advantage. However, Da Silva will have the power edge, knocking opponents down 1.36 times per 15 minutes. Kape lands 1.12 more significant strikes per minute but also absorbs 0.92 more. Bulldog will have the wrestling edge, landing 2.26 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Kape is a significant favorite at -390, but there is value in a da Silva knockout at +1000.

Quarantillo & Killer

Veteran featherweight Cub “Killer" Swanson takes on Billy Quarantillo. Swanson has alternated wins and losses dating back to 2020. He lost his last time out to Andre Fili. Quarantillo is also coming off a loss and has alternated wins and losses dating back to 2020.

Quarantillo is two inches taller, but they both have a 70-inch reach. Neither fighter has significant one-punch power, but Quarantillo lands at a significantly higher clip. Quarantillo lands 7.37 significant strikes per minute to Swanson’s 4.67. However, Quarantillo absorbs 1.71 more per minute. Quarantillo also has a slight statistical edge regarding takedowns and averages 0.71 more submissions per 15 minutes.

Quarantillo is getting old at 36, but Swanson is ancient at 41. It’s not an overly attractive bet, but Quarantillo looks like the best play at -166.

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Welterweight Championship Main Event

Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley

Odds to Win: Covington +230 | Buckley -310
How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +115 | Submission +1100 | Decision -130
Will the fight go the distance? Yes -120 | No -106

Former UFC welterweight title contender Colby Covington faces Joaquin Buckley. Covington is 2-2 over his last four, losing to Leon Edwards in his previous fight. Buckley is riding a five-fight win streak into Saturday, knocking out Stephen Thompson in his last bout.

Covington is three inches taller, but Buckley has a four-inch reach advantage. Buckley has more one-punch power, averaging 0.93 knockdowns per 15 minutes. He is also the more active striker, landing an average of 4.13 significant strikes per minute to Covington’s 3.88. However, Covington is the more aggressive wrestler, averaging 3.79 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Covington is six years older than Buckley but has a good gas tank. Still, this seems like a passing of the torch fight. Finding value with Buckley at -310 is tough, so we’ll hedge and take Covington by points or Buckley by KO/TKO at -145.