UFC Vegas 94: Lemos vs. Jandiroba Preview & Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC women’s strawweight bout headlines UFC Vegas 94 as No. 3 ranked Amanda “Amandinha" Lemos takes on the No. 5 ranked Virna “Carcara" Jandiroba.
- Date: Saturday, July 20, 2024 | Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Enterprise, Nevada, United States – UFC Apex | TV: ESPN
Sting is a Mean Machine
Unranked featherweights Steve “Mean Machine" Garcia and Seung Woo “Sting" Choi will face off. Garcia is riding a three-fight win streak, winning all three by KO/TKO. Choi is 1-3 over his last four contests, winning his last fight.
Both fighters are six feet tall, but Garcia has a half-inch reach advantage. Garcia has significantly more power, knocking down opponents 2.62 per 15 minutes. In addition, he lands 1.37 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 0.62 fewer than Choi. Garcia will also have the grappling advantage, executing more takedowns and submissions per 15 minutes. Plus, Garcia has the better takedown defense rate.
Garcia is the favorite at -152, but his odds of winning by KO/TKO or decision are slightly more enticing at -125.
Tavares and The Iron Turtle
Unranked middleweights Brad Tavares and Jun Yong “The Iron Turtle" Park will fight in the co-main event. Tavares is 1-2 in his last four fights, losing his last time out. Park is also coming off a loss but won four in a row before that.
Tavares is two inches taller and has a one-inch reach advantage. Neither fighter exhibits much one-punch knockout power, but Park lands 1.15 more significant strikes per minute. If they decide to wrestle, it could be an interesting battle. Park is the more active offensive wrestler, but Tavares has an 81 percent takedown defense rate.
Park is the favorite at -162, but I think this fight goes the distance. However, taking the fight to go the distance is an unappealing -200. Park should win, so to increase our payout, we take him to win by submission or points simply to grab better odds on the decision at +105.
UFC Women’s Strawweight Main Event
Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba
- Odds to Win: Lemos +104 | Jandiroba -128
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +185 | Submission +200 | Decision +140
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +148 | No -190
Amanda Lemos wants to climb back into the title picture, but Virna Jandiroba is looking for her shot. Lemos is 3-1 over her last four, beating Mackenzie Dern her last time out. Jandiroba is riding a three-fight win streak, beating Angela Hill, Marina Rodriguez, and Loopy Godinez.
Lemos is one inch taller and has a one-inch reach advantage. Lemos has the power edge, knocking down opponents 0.7 more times per 15 minutes. Lemos lands 1.13 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 1.25 more. Jandiroba will have the grappling edge, landing 1.38 more takedowns and 0.55 more submissions per 15 minutes. Lemos also has a suspect takedown defense.
Jandiroba is the favorite, and I think her ground advantage justifies it. Take Jandiroba to win outright at -128.
UFC Vegas 94: Lemos vs. Jandiroba Betting Card
- Garcia by KO/TKO or Decision (-125)
- Park by Submission or Decision (+105)
- Jandiroba to win (-128)
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