2025 NL MVP Odds Watch: Target These Value Candidates
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
As we move deeper into the 2025 MLB season, the National League MVP race is starting to heat up — and it’s anything but predictable. While Shohei Ohtani remains the favorite despite the uncertainty surrounding his return to pitching, stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., Corbin Carroll, and Francisco Lindor are making serious cases of their own.
For bettors, now is the time to strike while plus-money odds still offer great value.
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Shohei Ohtani: Still the Favorite Despite Uncharted Territory
At around +300 odds, Shohei Ohtani continues to lead the NL MVP market even though his situation is unprecedented. Recovering as a pitcher while still crushing baseballs as the Dodgers’ designated hitter, Ohtani is in a category all his own.
Key Factors:
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Best hitter in baseball by many advanced metrics
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Potential to resume pitching duties later this season
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Playing for a high-profile team (Dodgers) boosts his MVP narrative
Betting Take:
If you already have an Ohtani ticket, doubling down at +300 could be smart. His upside as a two-way player — even if only part-time — makes him a constant MVP frontrunner.
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Fernando Tatis Jr.: The Best Challenger to Ohtani?
Sitting around +400, Fernando Tatis Jr. is gaining serious steam. The Padres’ star is having a brilliant season, and if San Diego can finish ahead of a banged-up Dodgers squad in the NL West, the media narrative could swing heavily in Tatis’ favor.
Why Tatis is Intriguing:
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Star power and marketability — voters love a big-name player
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Team success matters — if the Padres win the division, Tatis would be the face of it
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MVP-caliber stats across power, speed, and defense
Betting Take:
Among non-Ohtani options, Tatis is the best value right now. His narrative potential, combined with elite production, could push him ahead late in the season.
Corbin Carroll: Hot Start but Tough Path
Corbin Carroll, also sitting near +400, has dazzled early in 2025. However, there’s skepticism about his path to actually overtaking Ohtani in the minds of voters.
Key Points:
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Already had a red-hot stretch and didn’t leap Ohtani in odds
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Plays for a smaller-market Diamondbacks team
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Less name recognition compared to Tatis or Lindor
Betting Take:
Carroll is an amazing player but feels like a longer shot to actually win unless injuries or a massive team surge occur.
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Kyle Tucker, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor: Sneaky Longshots to Watch
Several other stars could shake up the MVP race if things break right:
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Kyle Tucker:
The Cubs’ slugger is hitting well, but concerns about the Brewers and stronger NL teams could cap his MVP case. -
Pete Alonso:
The Mets slugger is putting together a huge power season. A few more big months could make him a dark horse if the Mets climb the standings. -
Francisco Lindor (+2000):
Maybe the best sleeper bet on the board. Lindor plays in the biggest media market (New York), is well-liked among voters, and had serious MVP buzz late last season. If the Mets stay relevant and Lindor keeps producing, his odds could shrink from 20-1 to 3-1 in a hurry.
Betting Take:
If you want a longshot lottery ticket, Lindor is the best high-upside play among non-Ohtani options.
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Final Thoughts: Tatis and Lindor Are the Smart NL MVP Bets Now
While Shohei Ohtani still deserves his spot atop the NL MVP odds board, the 2025 race is far from over.
If you’re betting today:
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Doubling down on Ohtani at +300 is reasonable value.
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Investing in Fernando Tatis Jr. at +400 offers huge upside if the Padres stay hot.
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Francisco Lindor at 20-1 could be the best high-reward play available, especially if the Mets push toward playoff contention.
The National League MVP race is shaping up to be one of the most fascinating award battles we’ve seen in years — and sharp bettors have several ways to attack it.
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