7 Things Learned About the Cincinnati Reds So Far in 2024

Reds Aren't Afraid to Run

The Reds often walk the fine line between aggressive and reckless baserunning. Personally, we're in favor of Elly De La Cruz pushing the limits as much as he feels comfortable. Although this approach will lead to some outs, we believe that two-thirds of these decisions will yield positive outcomes. However, there are always exceptions to consider. For instance, we find it hard to support stealing third with no outs since a single would likely score him from second anyway.

For better or worse, the Reds are committed to pushing boundaries. We've observed situations where a hit-and-run led to a double play, but we've also seen aggressive plays like taking an extra base that have proven successful. Challenging outfield arms tends to be a risk worth taking. When the offense struggles, as the Reds have at times, finding ways to manufacture runs becomes crucial.

This post by  Clay Snowden appeared first on Just Baseball.

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Starting Rotation Has Depth and Talent

Without their strong rotation, the Reds would be in dire straits. Hunter Greene has shown significant improvement, lowering his HR/FB% from 14% to 5.7% and reducing hard contact, aligning more closely with the high expectations fans had for him.

Nick Lodolo, coming off an injury, has been impressive, boasting a 3.34 ERA and 2.91 FIP, with a strikeout rate of 11.06 per nine innings and a walk rate of 2.31. His curveball has been particularly effective, holding batters to a .151 average and achieving a 49.4% whiff rate—a stellar beginning to his season.

Cincinnati's Opening Day pitcher, Frankie Montas, experienced some difficulty in his latest start but has otherwise performed well when fit. Both Graham Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott have also risen to the occasion. Abbott has kept runs to two or fewer in seven of his eight appearances. Although seeing him pitch beyond five innings would be ideal, his consistent, productive starts have been more than satisfactory.

“Quad-A Players” Are Typically Just That

Every team occasionally relies on waiver wire pickups, career minor leaguers, and others who haven't found much success previously, and we don’t blame the Reds for following this practice. It's useful to have players who can be called up temporarily without the concern of having to designate them for assignment when someone returns from injury.

Unfortunately, due to injuries, these players have been thrust into larger roles than anticipated, and their performance has generally been lacking. Nick Martini, for example, had his moment on Opening Day, contributing significantly to a Reds' win—surpassing expectations for the entire year in a single game. However, his overall performance has reflected the reasons he has not settled into any team, with a 39 wRC+, 2.3% walk rate, and a .177/.200/.329 batting line. Bubba Thompson’s inability to hit has left his future uncertain, and Mike Ford, with just two hits in 16 at-bats, is also in limbo.

This situation underscores why we previously argued for an upgrade over Stuart Fairchild. The Reds, on paper, didn’t need to fill multiple starting positions; they were in a position to invest in a better platoon option for Benson/Fraley and enhance the fourth outfielder spot. While the free agent market was not robust, a trade might have been a viable option to acquire such a player. 

Tyler Stephenson is Bouncing Back

Throughout the winter, there were significant concerns about the catcher position. Tyler Stephenson, returning from an injury in 2023, initially didn’t resemble the hitter of previous seasons. However, he has since reduced his strikeout rate by four percent and shown a stronger impact on the ball. While one might expect his improved contact to yield more hits, these positive changes are encouraging signs. Given Luke Maile's struggles at the plate, Stephenson’s advancements are particularly crucial.

Additionally, Stephenson's defensive skills have seen notable improvements. His framing metrics have risen from -9 catcher framing runs last season to +1 this season. His blocking skills have also enhanced, and he appears more confident and comfortable behind the dish than he did last year.

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Minor League Depth is Lacking

Before you start worrying, it's important to recognize that a dip in the prospect pool is expected. The Reds promoted many prospects last season, which inevitably impacts the quality of remaining players. Currently, we don't see any position player in Double or Triple-A who could step up to the majors and consistently perform at an average to above-average level from the get-go.

Blake Dunn might eventually contribute to the team, but his current performance isn't overly promising. With a slash line of .219/.336/.354 and a wRC+ of 86 through 115 plate appearances, his high strikeout rate of 29.6% and a dip in power from last season are concerning, though an early season injury might explain some struggles.

Peyton Burdick and Livan Soto also bring some intrigue; however, they've been inconsistent and have moved around on waivers, making them less reliable. We're open to giving them a chance, but also tempering expectations regarding their ability to deliver steady offense.

This isn't to say the Reds' system lacks talented hitters altogether. The challenge is that most of the top prospects are either playing in Dayton or are sidelined with injuries, like Edwin Arroyo.

Elly De La Cruz is Exceeding Expectations

Elly De La Cruz entered the league surrounded by considerable excitement, and while his rookie season showcased both his potential and shortcomings, his second year has seen remarkable improvements. Elly has managed to lower his strikeout percentage while enhancing his walk rate, isolated power, average exit velocity, and barrel percentage. Additionally, he's stolen 25 bases in just 40 games, demonstrating his game-changing abilities.

At just 22 years old, Elly still has significant potential for growth. Although a 73% zone contact rate and a 33.2% whiff rate do raise some concerns, his overall trajectory suggests he will continue to refine his skills.

Elly's impact has been profound, with his performance directly contributing to several team victories. His dynamic presence on the basepaths not only shifts defensive focus but also makes stealing second and third bases seem effortless. His continued development is likely to influence many more games this season.

Reds Aren't Afraid to Run

The Reds often walk the fine line between aggressive and reckless baserunning. Personally, we're in favor of Elly De La Cruz pushing the limits as much as he feels comfortable. Although this approach will lead to some outs, we believe that two-thirds of these decisions will yield positive outcomes. However, there are always exceptions to consider. For instance, we find it hard to support stealing third with no outs since a single would likely score him from second anyway.

For better or worse, the Reds are committed to pushing boundaries. We've observed situations where a hit-and-run led to a double play, but we've also seen aggressive plays like taking an extra base that have proven successful. Challenging outfield arms tends to be a risk worth taking. When the offense struggles, as the Reds have at times, finding ways to manufacture runs becomes crucial.

This post by  Clay Snowden appeared first on Just Baseball.

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