Our last MLB pick was a winner on the White Sox team total! We backed the worst team in baseball history, and they went over that team total in the fourth inning.

Taken a brief hiatus over the past few days, but we are back with a plus money total. You can play the original line at a juiced number, but I’m going for the +105 price.

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2024 Record: 114-116 (-6.67 U)

Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Hunter Brown (3.59 ERA) vs. Michael King (3.09 ERA)

Yesterday, Yu Darvish took on Spencer Arrighetti in a game where the Padres won 3-1. The total was 7.5 for that game in a “lesser” pitching matchup, and today, the total is at seven or a plus money 7.5.

I disagree with the lower total, but I think yesterday’s low-scoring game influenced it. These offenses are too good to justify a total with these two starters. Not to mention, both teams combined for 19 hits yesterday, but both teams left eight men on base. I don’t see that being the case today.

Both of these young starters have exceeded their career high in innings. King had never thrown more than 104 in a season, and now he’s up over 160. Brown did throw 155 last year, but now he’s at 158 with a few starts to go. There is always a chance that one of these guys doesn’t have their best stuff today, and you have to have your best stuff to stop these lineups.

Both starters are definitely above average, but both have a SIERA over 3.60. I like Brown and King, but I expect both to give up at least two runs each, and with both going over their career-high in innings against these offenses, there is always a chance one of them has a terrible day. Brown did have a bad day in his last start, allowing five earned runs to the A’s. Maybe it’s King’s turn, or maybe Brown falters again. Maybe both.

These are both top-ten offenses against right-handed pitching. Since August began, the Padres have a 125 wRC+, tied for the second-best mark in the league. The Astros aren’t far behind, sitting right behind the Dodgers in ninth place at 111. In the last two weeks, the Padres rank third, and the Astros rank 13th with a 101 wRC+.

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Both offenses are not only stacked with talent, but they are both seeing the ball well right now. As stated earlier, these teams combined for 29 total bases but went 3-12 with runners in scoring position.

The only way to legitimize a 7.5 total at +105 would be fully rested bullpens and wind blowing in. Neither is the case; it’s supposed to be 70 degrees and sunny by the first pitch, with 5 MPH wind blowing east to west.

The Padres don’t have a high-leverage arm without at least 22 pitches in the last three days. The three best, Robert Suarez, Tanner Scott, and Jason Adam, have all pitched in back-to-back days. The Padres bullpen is outstanding, but without their best against the Astros, it is not a recipe for success. Michael King will have to dominate to keep the Astros at three runs total in this game.

The Astros do have their three best arms ready to go, but the other arms have been used extensively to allow those three to be prepared for today. I love Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and Ryan Pressly, but let’s not pretend they can’t have a blow-up, especially against this Padres team that has been annihilating everyone in their path.

That’s also assuming the Astros have a lead because if they are down in the game, we likely get an inning off Hector Neris. I like the Padres’ chances to keep scoring after Brown exits. The over has hit in 25 of the last 38 Padres home games; runs are being scored at Petco lately.

I project five runs allowed by the starters and three runs allowed by the bullpens. I would take this over to -115 at 7.5, so at +105, I like the value here.

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The Pick: Astros vs Padres Over 7.5 (+105) Risk 1 Unit

By Peter Appel

The post MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Tuesday, September 17, 2024 appeared first on Just Baseball.