Building a Postseason Rotation: Cleveland’s Key Decisions

Filling Out the Postseason Rotation

Beyond Bibee, the Guardians face difficulty determining the rest of their postseason rotation. Matthew Boyd and Ben Lively are expected to follow Bibee, who provided strong performances in the second half of the season. Boyd returned from injury in August and has posted a 2.72 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in his eight starts. Meanwhile, Lively has delivered a solid 3.80 ERA across 28 starts despite not having overpowering stuff. Deciding on a fourth starter for the ALDS will be difficult, with Gavin Williams and Joey Cantillo likely competing for the final spot. Both pitchers have had mixed results, but Cantillo’s recent surge gives him an edge heading into the postseason.

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The Guardians' Bullpen: A Key Strength

One of the key reasons for the Guardians’ successful season has been their dominant bullpen. Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, and Cade Smith have formed a formidable trio, helping to cement the team’s spot as one of the top contenders in the American League. While their lineup has produced consistently, the bullpen has often been the backbone of their victories. However, despite this strength, their starting rotation has not contributed to their success in 2024, leaving room for concern as the postseason approaches.

Struggles of the Starting Rotation

Cleveland's starting rotation has been among the weakest in Major League Baseball this season. According to FanGraphs, they rank 27th in fWAR with a mark of just 6.0, sitting only above teams like the Los Angeles Angels, Colorado Rockies, and Miami Marlins. In terms of other key pitching metrics, they rank 23rd in WHIP (1.31), 24th in both ERA (4.40) and FIP (4.51), and 21st in opponent batting average (.248). As the postseason approaches, there is growing concern over how the Guardians will structure their rotation for the ALDS, given these underwhelming performances.

Tanner Bibee as the Ace

Tanner Bibee has emerged as the clear leader of the Guardians’ rotation after Shane Bieber’s early-season injury. The 25-year-old has been consistent throughout the year, posting a 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and holding opponents to a .228 batting average over 31 starts. Bibee’s success can be largely attributed to his effective breaking and offspeed pitches, which have consistently stymied opposing hitters. He ranks in the 99th percentile for breaking run value and the 89th percentile for offspeed run value, making him a reliable option to lead the team into October.

Filling Out the Postseason Rotation

Beyond Bibee, the Guardians face difficulty determining the rest of their postseason rotation. Matthew Boyd and Ben Lively are expected to follow Bibee, who provided strong performances in the second half of the season. Boyd returned from injury in August and has posted a 2.72 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in his eight starts. Meanwhile, Lively has delivered a solid 3.80 ERA across 28 starts despite not having overpowering stuff. Deciding on a fourth starter for the ALDS will be difficult, with Gavin Williams and Joey Cantillo likely competing for the final spot. Both pitchers have had mixed results, but Cantillo’s recent surge gives him an edge heading into the postseason.

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