Player Props

Hunter Greene Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-165), Under 6.5 (+120) Risk 0.5 Units on both

When we took Dylan Cease to win the CY Young, I discussed how Hunter Greene would start to regress. Unfortunately, Cease didn’t hold up his end of the bargain against the Marlins, but Greene did struggle like I said.

His underlying ERA predictors say he’s outperforming his ERA. My favorite, SIERA, tells me he’s headed for a 3.80 ERA. The most alarming one, especially today, is his 4.19 xFIP. xFIP normalizes the HR/FB rate, so he’s due to give up some long balls. I could see that happening today in Great American Smallpark against an offense showing a power stroke.

But this is about strikeouts. I think Greene struggles a bit today, which lends itself to not racking up strikeouts. While he does have a 34.6% strikeout rate against this Cardinals team, I don’t see him exceeding six strikeouts in this one.

He had six strikeouts the last time he faced the Cardinals. They’ve also seen him plenty of times, so they know the plan now. They are also doing an excellent job of limiting strikeouts against righties.

Since the All-Star break, they have a 19.6% strikeout rate, the sixth lowest in the league in that span. Over the last two weeks, this falls to an 18% rate, the third lowest in the league. Recording eight strikeouts is challenging, even for a pitcher as good as Greene.

The Reds bullpen is also ultra-rested. It was rested yesterday, which is a big reason we were on the under, and only Jakob Junis pitched after Andrew Abbott. So, they don’t need to push Greene. They also have an off-day on Thursday, so they may be more inclined to go to the bullpen, knowing they’ll get more rest in two days.

I bet under 6.5 as my first bet, but I saw a juiced 7.5 pop, and I also bet that. You can stick to 6.5 if you want or go in on both with me. If you want to pivot because of a price change, I am okay with Cardinals ML in this spot; I think Greene struggles.

The post MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions for Tuesday, August 13, 2024 appeared first on Just Baseball.