Dodgers vs Yankees Game 3 Prediction | World Series Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
Game 2 was a little more decisive, but the New York Yankees beat themselves in Game 1 of the World Series. First, Manager Aaron Boone took Gerrit Cole out of the series opener too soon. Then, the Yankees hitters couldn’t cash in on their scoring opportunities. Finally, Boone curiously called for an intentional walk in extra innings, preferring to pitch to a clutch Freddie Freeman, who rakes versus lefties with the bases loaded. Now, New York has to erase a two-game deficit against the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, with the series shifting back to the Bronx, there may be an advantage in backing the Yankees in Game 3.
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Where to Watch Dodgers vs Yankees World Series Game 3
- Location: Yankees Stadium
- Time: 8:08 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: Fox, Sportsnet
- Spread: Yankees -1.5 | Moneyline: Yankees -142 | Total: 7.5
Dodgers vs Yankees World Series Game 3 Best Bet: Yankees -142
The injury to Shohei Ohtani has dampened Los Angeles’ championship outlook. Compounding those issues, Walker Buehler takes to the mound for Game 3 at Yankee Stadium. The Dodgers starting pitcher has struggled since returning from Tommy John surgery. Buehler missed the entire 2023 season, coming back in May of this year. Since then, he’s ranked as one of the worst analytics arms in the bigs, a status that’s reflected in his lackluster playoff results. At the end of the regular season, Buehler ranked in the 20th percentile or worst in expected ERA, expected batting average, and strikeout percentage. More concerningly, his 24.5% chase and 19.4% whiff rates rank among the bottom ninth and seventh percentile, respectively. Those metrics won’t play well at Yankee Stadium. Further, the Yankees are making solid contact this postseason and are due for an uptick in run production. We give the hosts an edge in this one.
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Dodgers vs Yankees World Series Game 3 Best Bet Total: Over 8.5
Assuredly, the Yankees have an advantage in Game 3; however, the Dodgers should have no problem scoring enough runs to push this game over the total. Clarke Schmidt takes the ball for New York amid two sub-optimal postseason appearances. The hard-throwing righty hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in either of his starts, giving up nine hits and three walks in 9.1 innings pitched. Still, two other factors point toward a potentially ineffective start from Schmidt. First, he’s no good at home. In eight starts at Yankee Stadium, Schmidt is toting a 4.50 ERA compared to 1.39 on the road. Second, he can’t pitch to lefties. Curiously, Schmidt’s HR/9, WHIP, and opponent slugging percentage all take pronounced jumps when pitching to left-handed batters. With the short porch in right field, we could see this game sail over the total earlier than expected.
Dodgers vs Yankees World Series Game 3 Best Player Props
Juan Soto to Record a Home Run +450
There’s no reason why Juan Soto should be priced at +450 to record a home run on Monday. The Yankees slugger has one of the most impressive analytics profiles, mashes off righties, and has been raking this postseason. Soto enters Game 3 with homers in three of his past four outings. Across that four-game sample, he’s gone 7-for-16, with three extra-base hits and six RBI. Still, that progress was anticipated. Soto was operating nearly 100 points below his expected slugging percentage with solid complementary metrics. The soon-to-be free agent sits in the 99th percentile in barrel and hard-hit rates, falling to the 94th percentile in squared-up rate. Predictably, the left-handed batting Soto has done his best work versus right-handed pitchers. His slugging percentage jumps 28 points, with 28 of his 41 homers coming off conventional arms. With Buehler pitching to contact, Soto is primed to continue his assault and cash as a +450 longshot to swat another home run at home.
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