Ranking the Top 5 World Series MVP Longshots
Grant White
Host · Writer
1. Teoscar Hernandez
World Series MVP Odds: +2700
Indisputably the best value, Teoscar Hernandez should be on everyone's radar in World Series MVP betting. The reigning Home Run Derby Champion has come through when the Dodgers need him most. And the NL Champs need him now more than ever if they hope to knock off the high-powered Yankees.
Always batting from the heart of the order, Hernandez has been an underappreciated asset in the Dodgers' run production. He's accounted for 15 runs this postseason, driving in eight and coming around to score seven more. While Hernandez's power metrics are down a bit, that's nothing a trip to Yankee Stadium can't remedy. As his slugging percentage comes up, the betting odds will decrease.
He's had limited experience, but the postseason brings out the best in Hernandez. We're betting he lives up to the moment against the Yankees, cementing himself as a World Series MVP frontrunner.
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5. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
World Series MVP Odds: +5000
One player who's due for a massive swing of good fortune is Jazz Chisholm Jr. The New York Yankees third baseman has yet to deliver a game-changing performance. Still, based on his underlying metrics, we're anticipating a much more productive World Series from the 26-year-old.
Since joining the Yankees partway through the year, Chisholm Jr. has been a premier offensive contributor. His .325 on-base percentage was the best of his career, and his .500 slugging was the second-best mark of his career. However, he's failed to replicate that in the postseason, posting underwhelming marks of .216 and .265, respectively.
Chisholm Jr. is operating substantially below his expected slugging percentage. His current standing is almost 200 points below the expected value of .423. Likewise, he's over 100 points below his expected on-base percentage. That puts Chisholm Jr. on the progression fast track, and he should vastly overproduce relative to his World Series MVP futures price.
4. Alex Verdugo
World Series MVP Odds: +22000
Yankees outfielder Alex Verdugo is another contrarian player to value ahead of Game 1. Verdugo has been more productive than his betting price implies, and he hasn't even scratched the surface of his capabilities.
While not known for his offensive prowess, Verdugo has been quiet this postseason. His .544 OPS is a significant departure from his regular-season standard, but it hasn't come at the expense of run production. The former second-round pick has accounted for three RBI and four runs scored through nine games.
There's nothing Verdugo would like more than sticking it to his former team in the World Series. Low-key, expect him to be a difference-maker.
3. Freddie Freeman
World Series MVP Odds: +3000
Freddie Freeman helped lead the Atlanta Braves to a World Series title three years ago. In doing so, he posted a 1.045 OPS while swatting five home runs throughout the playoffs. This year, he's operating at less than half of that efficiency, making Freeman a potential breakout candidate against the Yankees.
The Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman has gone conspicuously cold in the playoffs. Freeman has nearly as many strikeouts (6) as he does hits (7), with none going for extra bases.
As is typically the case, Freeman was an analytics darling this season. His .477 expected slugging percentage put him in the 86th percentile and is more than double his postseason mark of .219. Expect meaningful progression from Freeman in the World Series, surpassing his current value as a +3000 MVP option.
2. Anthony Volpe
World Series MVP Odds: +10000
Let's take a moment to appreciate what Anthony Volpe has accomplished this postseason. The team's more prominent stars have overshadowed the Yankees shortstop, but Volpe is quietly having himself a postseason.
The New York native has been an on-base machine in the playoffs. Through the first two rounds, Volpe has an astounding .459 on-base percentage. More importantly, he's translated that to six runs and two stolen bases in nine games. What's been most impressive about his production is that Volpe has accomplished this while batting seventh the entire postseason.
Volpe has hits in all but two of his playoff games, with five runs coming over his past four. That momentum carries him into Game 1 of the World Series, and he should see his odds decrease as the series progresses.
1. Teoscar Hernandez
World Series MVP Odds: +2700
Indisputably the best value, Teoscar Hernandez should be on everyone's radar in World Series MVP betting. The reigning Home Run Derby Champion has come through when the Dodgers need him most. And the NL Champs need him now more than ever if they hope to knock off the high-powered Yankees.
Always batting from the heart of the order, Hernandez has been an underappreciated asset in the Dodgers' run production. He's accounted for 15 runs this postseason, driving in eight and coming around to score seven more. While Hernandez's power metrics are down a bit, that's nothing a trip to Yankee Stadium can't remedy. As his slugging percentage comes up, the betting odds will decrease.
He's had limited experience, but the postseason brings out the best in Hernandez. We're betting he lives up to the moment against the Yankees, cementing himself as a World Series MVP frontrunner.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
World Series MVP Odds: +5000
One player who's due for a massive swing of good fortune is Jazz Chisholm Jr. The New York Yankees third baseman has yet to deliver a game-changing performance. Still, based on his underlying metrics, we're anticipating a much more productive World Series from the 26-year-old.
Since joining the Yankees partway through the year, Chisholm Jr. has been a premier offensive contributor. His .325 on-base percentage was the best of his career, and his .500 slugging was the second-best mark of his career. However, he's failed to replicate that in the postseason, posting underwhelming marks of .216 and .265, respectively.
Chisholm Jr. is operating substantially below his expected slugging percentage. His current standing is almost 200 points below the expected value of .423. Likewise, he's over 100 points below his expected on-base percentage. That puts Chisholm Jr. on the progression fast track, and he should vastly overproduce relative to his World Series MVP futures price.
