Justin Steele Injury Devastates Cubs’ Rotation & Betting Odds
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The Chicago Cubs find themselves in a precarious position atop the NL Central. With a lineup that’s producing and sensation Shota Imanaga dazzling on the mound, things looked promising on the North Side. But the loss of ace Justin Steele—arguably the backbone of the Cubs’ rotation—casts a long shadow on their postseason hopes and impacts their standing in the MLB futures market.
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Justin Steele Out for 2025: What Happened?
Cubs starter Justin Steele is officially out for the remainder of the 2025 MLB season, and likely part of 2026, after undergoing a UCL revision repair—a less invasive alternative to Tommy John surgery. After a shaky start to the season, Steele appeared to be regaining his form before being sidelined. His second opinion confirmed what most feared: the elbow damage was significant.
While not a complete ligament replacement, this procedure still demands a lengthy recovery. Realistically, Cubs fans and backers won’t see him return until mid-2026.
Hunter Greene’s Rising Concerns Amid Velocity Trends
Can the Cubs Survive Without Their Ace?
Even with Imanaga pitching like a frontline starter, the rest of the Cubs’ rotation is shaky at best. After Steele’s exit, the staff features names like Matthew Boyd, Ben Brown, Colin Rea, and Jameson Taillon. It’s a patchwork group that lacks playoff-caliber depth.
And with NL Central rivals like the Milwaukee Brewers always managing to stay in the mix, and the Cincinnati Reds gaining momentum behind Hunter Greene, the Cubs’ grip on the division may be more fragile than their current record suggests.
Betting Implications:
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Cubs Division Futures: Now might be the time to fade Chicago in the NL Central Winner market. The loss of Steele combined with their lack of rotation depth makes them vulnerable over a full season.
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Win Total Bets: If you’re holding an over ticket on Cubs season wins, the Steele injury drastically reduces margin for error.
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Daily Unders: With a weakened rotation, consider betting the under on Cubs team strikeouts in Steele’s spot starts and look for overs in games where the bullpen is expected to be heavily taxed.
Why Shota Imanaga Is Now the Key to Chicago’s Season
With Steele down, Shota Imanaga’s success becomes paramount. The Japanese left-hander has been one of the league’s most pleasant surprises, but now the pressure ratchets up. He’s no longer a complementary piece—he’s the guy.
Imanaga’s consistent command and elite K/BB ratio are carrying the staff, but asking him to shoulder the load for 5+ months is a massive task. Bettors should monitor his workload, velocity trends, and any signs of fatigue, especially come midseason.
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Betting Takeaways: Proceed with Caution on Chicago
The Cubs may lead the NL Central today, but that doesn’t guarantee staying power—especially with a diminished rotation. From a betting perspective, this is a time for re-evaluation:
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Reconsider Cubs futures, especially in the playoff and pennant markets
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Monitor matchups involving back-end starters like Boyd and Rea for opponent run-line value
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Watch for bullpen fatigue, especially in long homestands or road trips, where Chicago may lack length from starters
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