MLB Most Bet Season Long Futures Props: Make or Miss Playoffs
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The MLB postseason race is heating up as we get past the All-Star break, and so is the betting action at BetMGM. As teams jockey for playoff position, bettors are hammering futures on who will crash the October dance — and who’s most likely to fall short. With major line movement and sharp action on unexpected squads, the ticket share, handle, and liability data provide a comprehensive snapshot of where public and sharp bettors are positioning themselves for the playoffs.
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Playoff Odds Movement: Big Swings at the Margins
(Open to Now)
- Arizona Diamondbacks: -110 → +650
- Atlanta Braves: -300 → +1200
- Cleveland Guardians: -130 → +500
- Texas Rangers: -110 → +310
- Toronto Blue Jays: +300 → -500
Line movement has been wild across the board, especially for fringe contenders. The Arizona Diamondbacks’ collapse has ballooned their odds from early favorites to +650 long shots. The Cleveland Guardians and Texas Rangers have also stumbled, now sitting at +500 and +310 to make the postseason. The Atlanta Braves, stunningly, have fallen out of the picture after preseason expectations had them locked in. Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays have surged, with a major swing from +300 to -500 to make the playoffs as they sit atop the AL East.
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Most Bet Playoff Odds (Tickets): Public Backs the Underdogs
- Cincinnati Reds
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Cleveland Guardians
The ticket count tells a clear story — fans love the underdogs. The Cincinnati Reds, despite sitting on the edge of the NL Central race, are a public favorite to reach the postseason. Arizona and the Cleveland Guardians both have odds and records working against them, but that hasn’t stopped bettors from backing their turnaround stories.
Most Bet to MAKE Playoffs (Tickets): Chasing the Value
- Reds (+550)
- Diamondbacks (+650)
- Pirates (+400)
The value lies in the long shots. Cincinnati’s deep pitching staff and young bats have piqued the interest of bettors. Arizona’s playoff hangover hasn’t scared away the public, despite sitting 5.5 games out of a wild-card spot. And the Pittsburgh Pirates, despite a sub-.500 record, continue to lure hopeful bettors looking to cash in on a second-half surge.
Most Bet to MAKE Playoffs (Handle): Sharps See Paths
- Chicago Cubs (-3000)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+650)
- Seattle Mariners (-210)
The largest bets are backing more stable ground. The Chicago Cubs lead the NL Central and are being treated as a near lock after opening at -140. The Seattle Mariners, who’ve been gaining steam in the AL Wild Card race, currently occupying the final spot, are pulling serious sharp action. Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks appear here again — a rare case where both small and large bettors see postseason potential despite the odds.
Most Bet to MISS Playoffs (Tickets): Big Names, Big Skepticism
- New York Yankees (+800)
- San Diego Padres (-102)
- Cleveland Guardians (-700)
Not everyone’s buying into the hype. The New York Yankees have been wildly inconsistent, even though they currently hold the top wild-card position. However, with other AL East teams surging, odds of +800 to miss the playoffs are too tempting for many. The San Diego Padres’ underwhelming record relative to expectations makes them an obvious target, even though they are a half-game up, sitting with the NL’s final wild-card berth. Cleveland’s inclusion here reinforces bettors’ lack of faith, even as ticket shares show many are also betting them to make it.
Most Bet to MISS Playoffs (Handle): Sharps Fade the Flawed
- Colorado Rockies (Off the board)
- Baltimore Orioles (-3000)
- Minnesota Twins (-500)
The books are exposed if these teams outperform low expectations. The Baltimore Orioles, despite their offensive punch, are facing serious sharp fade action due to pitching depth and defensive concerns. The Minnesota Twins, sitting four games out of a wild-card spot, are also being bet against quietly, with sharp bettors questioning their run differential and consistency. And the Colorado Rockies? They’ve become untouchable — not even worth booking odds anymore with their record-breaking pace, with an MLB-worst 74 losses.
