MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, and Predictions: Mets vs. Diamondbacks
Sportsgrid Staff
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New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Luis Severino (3.84 ERA) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (3.94 ERA)
Luis Severino has delivered a solid performance this season, and Eduardo Rodriguez has shown decent form as well. Additionally, the bullpens have been reliable. Despite this, the offenses are performing exceptionally well, making it hard not to favor the over, especially with favorable matchups for both teams today. Furthermore, the extreme heat in Arizona aligns with a weather trend that typically favors higher scoring games.
Regarding this weather trend, it’s not blindly followed, but it does favor higher scores when temperatures range from 95-114 degrees. Historically, the over hits at a 57.4% rate with a 10.4% return on investment in such conditions. Today, temperatures at Chase Field are expected to hover between 103-106 degrees.
Handling a baseball becomes challenging in such heat, affecting pitchers’ grip and causing early fatigue. This situation is compounded as these pitchers are up against top-form offenses.
Severino faces the strongest August lineup against right-handers, leading in key offensive metrics. His past encounters with this lineup suggest difficulties, given their low strikeout rate and high expected weighted on-base average against him. Given the heat and a less impressive road ERA, a tough outing could be in store.
Rodriguez, on the other hand, has been inconsistent against relatively weaker teams and now faces a formidable Mets lineup thriving against left-handed pitching. Despite previous adequate performances, the challenging conditions and a strong opposing lineup might prove too much.
Both teams excel against their respective pitcher types, and while the bullpens have been strong, the dynamic offenses are expected to prevail. Anticipating seven runs from the starters and three from the bullpens, the total should ideally be around 9.5 rather than 8.5, making a bet on the over a prudent choice.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-120)
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The post MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions for Monday, August 26, 2024 appeared first on Just Baseball.
