MLB · 1 year ago

MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions Mets vs. Nationals

Sportsgrid Staff

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MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions Mets vs. Nationals

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals @ 6:45 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Sean Manaea (3.89 ERA) vs. DJ Herz (5.48 ERA)

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This game is all about the splits. The Mets have dominated left-handed pitching, while the Nationals have not. I was intrigued by the first five, but the Nationals’ bullpen is one of the worst units in the game, and they aren’t on a good rest schedule. The Mets hold every advantage in this game except home field and are well worth the price as road favorites.

DJ Herz takes the bump for Washington. It was a bumpy road for him over his first two starts, but he abused the Marlins for six shutout innings with 13 strikeouts. He dominated the worst offense in baseball against left-handed pitching. If we take out that start, he has pitched more than 4.1 innings, averaging 3.25 earned runs per start.

The first start of his career was against the Mets, and it didn’t go well. He allowed four runs in four innings while surrendering seven hits. The Mets offense has only gotten better since Herz last saw them.

I’m not surprised that MacKenzie Gore rebounded against the Mets. Left-handers who mainly throw four-seamers, curveballs, and sliders rank 13th in xwOBA. Left-handers who throw four-seams and changeups are a much, much better matchup. They are the third-best team in baseball against those two pitches, rocking a .363 xwOBA (elite). If we include cutters and sliders in our search, his lesser-thrown pitches, the Mets are still in the top five.

Against lefties in general, the Mets are fantastic this season. They have the third-best wRC+ over the entire season, so it’s not just that they are hot right now; they’ve been destroying lefties all year. While they’ve been hot in June, this is the number one offense against lefties in baseball, with an absurd 168 wRC+. The following best is the Twins, who we will discuss later.

Over the last two weeks, the Mets have had a 168 wRC+, the second-best to the Minnesota Twins. It’s an offense firing on all cylinders against southpaws, and they crush this pitch mix. Mets offense should thrive.

Sean Manaea is a professional. He knows his job. Throw five innings and keep your team in the ballgame. I highly doubt he dominates, but he does have an easy matchup. The Nationals have the 28th-ranked wRC+ against southpaws this year. Since June began, they have ranked 27th in wRC+. Over the last two weeks, they rank 26th.

They had a chance to destroy David Peterson, whose xERA is above six. He threw 6.1 innings of two-run ball. The Nationals rank 27th against his pitch mix in xwOBA. Compared to Manaea’s pitch mix, they rank 25th in xwOBA. While the Nationals rank slightly higher, it’s the same number at .308. We should get five innings of two-run ball.

The Mets should hold a lead and continue to pile on. The Nationals have four solid relievers: Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, Derek Law, and Dylan Floro. They all threw yesterday and have thrown at least 30 pitches in the last three days. The only pitcher not available for the Mets is Tyler Jay, who was the one to blow it yesterday.

I’m not a massive proponent of favorites, but when it feels this lopsided in every direction, I will take it—especially when I don’t respect the home-field advantage here. The Mets are 20-16 on the road this year compared to 21-25 at home. The Nationals are three games under .500 at home and on the road. It’s public, I know, but one unit has to be placed on Grimace.