MLB Trade Deadline Precipitates Sharp Movement in Futures Odds

We are officially in the MLB playoff push. Teams have made their final moves ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline, causing a massive shift in the betting market as we head into the stretch drive. While some teams have signaled their intent to look toward the future, a handful of teams have built themselves into World Series contenders. 

Sharp bettors have calculated their position appropriately, taking positions on their preferred betting options in the division futures market.

As we head into August, we’re breaking down how the MLB Trade Deadline impacted the betting odds.

MLB Trades: Tracker | Deadline Winners | Deadline Recap | World Series Odds Stock Up/Down

Yankees Driving AL Betting

Not surprisingly, the always-popular New York Yankees have commanded a significant portion of the market share. The Bronx Bombers have emerged as the betting favorite in the AL pennant race, enticing square bettors to get in on the action. 

The Yankees own 34.0% of the tickets and 42.9% of the handle (Bet MGM) to reign over the American League come October. That difference implies that sharp bettors are making big-money wagers on New York to emerge as the AL representative in the World Series. 

They’ve taken a massive chunk of the tickets and money in the AL East race. Over 91.0% of the funds since the MLB Trade Deadline has been placed on the Yankees to usurp the Baltimore Orioles as division champions. 

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Conflicting NL West Positions

At first glance, it reveals a slight decrease in the Los Angeles Dodgers NL Championship odds. Sportsbooks have dropped the NL West leaders from +165 to +150 in the National League pennant market, but savvy bettors are looking elsewhere. 

Specifically, the San Diego Padres have earned a monumental market share since the trade deadline passed. Half of the tickets written are on the Friars to claim the NL spot in the World Series, albeit representing just 40.5% of the money share. That suggests that the Padres have become the public’s play after a bevy of action ahead of the deadline.

Still, the sharpest of bettors are lining up to get a piece of the Arizona Diamondbacks as NL West winners. Just 5.0 games back of the division lead, Arizona represents 69.3% of the handle to win the division.

Sportsbooks can’t expose themselves on the Dodgers, and thankfully, the flood of Padres and Diamondbacks’ money mitigates that potential disaster. 

The Always Entertaining NL East

Seemingly out of nowhere, the NL East has turned into a three-horse race over the season’s final two months. 

Down and out through the first few months of the season, the New York Mets have cemented themselves as true contenders—a position reflected in the betting odds. The Philadelphia Phillies’ grasp on the division lead is dwindling, forcing bettors to look at more attractive odds for maximum value. 

Philadelphia’s division odds have decreased from -1200 to -800, with the Mets and Atlanta Braves improving to +2200 and +750, respectively. Since their efficient trade deadline, 66.0% of the betting handle has come in on the Mets. 

MLB Trade Deadline Winners: Who Came Out On Top of the 25 Biggest Moves?

Mariners Soaking a Hefty Chunk

Lastly, the AL West has become a battleground for some of the best teams in the American League. While the Houston Astros have supplanted the Seattle Mariners atop the AL West, neither team has commanded more money on the open market. 

That distinction belongs to the Texas Rangers, who have collected 59.5% of the betting handle since the MLB Trade Deadline. Although the Astros have moved into the division lead, 50.0% of tickets are being written on the M’s to win their first AL West title since 2001. Consequently, their odds have dipped from +160 to +130, while the Astros’ price has decreased from -155 to -125.

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Final Thoughts

When it comes to betting, inference is the gateway to glory. And sharp bettors have made their positions known. 

The Yankees have satiated their fans and the betting community, solidifying themselves as the team to beat in the AL. There’s a murkier divide in the Senior Circuit, with several teams attempting to represent the NL in the World Series this fall. Depending on your risk tolerance, several teams have emerged as legitimate contenders. 

There’s no telling how the next two months will play out, but following the sharp money gives bettors the best idea of what to expect. 

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