MLB · 3 hours ago

MLB Wild Card Best Bets Today: Wednesday’s Top 2 Betting Picks (Oct. 1)

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

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Two marquee MLB Wild Card matchups headline tonight’s slate, with the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox continuing their wild card series a night after Boston jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the Bronx. Following a battle of long-time AL East rivals, the Cincinnati Reds are in tough as they try to dig out of a 0-1 hole in California against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Yankees bring baseball’s most dangerous lineup into a must-win spot against Boston, led by Aaron Judge’s historic season and an offense that paces the league in every advanced metric. Out west, Cincinnati faces an uphill climb against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who’s been one of the most dominant arms in MLB all season.

With power bats in New York and an ace shutting down the Reds in Los Angeles, the board sets up perfectly for two sharp betting angles.

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Where to Watch Red Sox vs Yankees Game 2

Ballpark: Yankee Stadium
Location: The Bronx, New York
Where to Watch: ESPN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 6:08 p.m. ET
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+120) | Total: 7.5
Moneyline: BOS +150 | TOR -178

Bet 1: Yankees Runline +120

The Yankees have set the bar offensively, and it isn’t particularly close. New York led the majors in expected slugging (.474), was atop the board in expected wOBA on contact (.422), and paced the league in overall expected wOBA (.350). They’re not just elite in theory—by the hard-contact numbers, this lineup is relentless: best in baseball in barrel rate (11.8%), first in average exit velocity (90.8 mph), and tops in the Majors with a 46.2% hard-hit rate. That translates into real scoreboard pressure, with the Yankees averaging 5.2 runs per game—the highest mark in baseball this season.

Aaron Judge is the difference-maker who turns dominance into inevitability. The Yankees’ superstar won the batting title at .331 with 53 home runs and 114 RBI, producing numbers that had him threatening for the Triple Crown in 2025. The underlying profile is even more absurd: Judge owned MLB’s top xwOBA (.476) and xSLG (.735). He ranked second in adjusted exit velocity (98.7 mph), led the league in batting run value (79), and redefined “hard contact” with a 24.7% barrel rate, 58.2% hard-hit rate, and 95.4 mph average exit velocity. Pitchers aren’t solving him—they’re just surviving his damage.

On the mound for Boston tonight, Brayan Bello was knocked around the last time he saw the Bronx Bombers. New York scored four runs and chased him after five, handing Bello the loss just a few weeks ago at Fenway. The Red Sox starter is due for regression with an expected ERA of 4.42, more than a run higher than his actual ERA. He also sports an expected opponents’ batting average of .264, which puts him in the bottom 25 percent of pitchers, and is much higher than his actual opponents’ batting average of .237. Bello allows too many baserunners and doesn’t have great swing and miss stuff—a recipe for disaster against a lineup like New York.

When you combine the game’s most dangerous bat with the deepest lineup in baseball, it makes a compelling case for New York to keep stacking crooked numbers. Against a Red Sox staff that’s struggled to suppress power, the Yankees’ offensive ceiling is exactly why backing them to cover the runline tonight makes sense.

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Where to Watch Reds vs Dodgers Game 2

Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
Location: Los Angeles, California
Where to Watch: ESPN
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 9:08 p.m. ET
Spread: LAD -1.5 (-130) | Total: 8
Moneyline: CIN +220 | LAD -270

Bet 2: Reds Under 2.5 Runs +110

The case for Cincinnati staying quiet at the plate starts with what they are—and what they aren’t—offensively. The Reds were simply not a good lineup in 2025. Their .245 batting average ranked 19th in the league, their .391 slugging percentage slotted 21st, and their advanced contact profile was even worse. Cincinnati’s .245 expected batting average was fifth-worst in baseball, while their .360 xwOBACON ranked second-to-last. They barreled the ball just 7.2% of the time (third-worst in MLB) and managed only a 38.2% hard-hit rate, another bottom-three figure. Translation: this is not a lineup built to generate consistent damage against top-tier pitching.

And tonight they’re running into exactly that in Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers’ ace has been everything advertised in his first full year stateside, going 12-8 with a 2.49 ERA, 201 strikeouts, and a 0.99 WHIP across 173.2 innings. He’s elite by every run-prevention metric: a 94th percentile xERA (2.73), 91st percentile xBA allowed (.207), and a 99th percentile fastball run value. Hitters have had no answers for his mix, with Yamamoto producing an 89th percentile strikeout rate and living in the 87th percentile for barrel suppression.

The matchup edge has already shown up head-to-head. Cincinnati managed just one run in their lone meeting with Yamamoto this season, when he went seven strong, allowing just four hits, while striking out nine. It’s part of a broader trend in which the Reds scored three runs or fewer in four of their six regular-season meetings against L.A. The Dodgers’ staff has consistently stifled them, and Yamamoto’s arsenal is the exact type that punishes a lineup with poor contact quality.

Add it all up, and the Reds’ offensive shortcomings paired with Yamamoto’s dominant profile make the Under 2.5 runs a bet that leans more on expectation than hope.

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