Orioles’ Colton Cowser is an Undervalued AL ROY Frontrunner

Futures markets tend to be a volatile entry point in the gambling world. Still, occasionally, there’s a value play on the board that’s too good to pass up. A month into the MLB season, a tempting proposition emerges from the AL Rookie of the Year market. 

Colton Cowser has been honing his craft in the Baltimore Orioles system for the past few seasons. Drafted fifth overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Cowser has exceeded the lofty heights many expected him to early in his career. Moreover, the hard-hitting outfielder has benefitted from the same development track that has brought us the likes of Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman. 

Based on his early-season results, it’s abundantly clear that Cowser deserves much steeper odds to claim this year’s distinction as Rookie of the Year. Consequently, now is the time to back him while he remains a plus-money candidate. 

Unrelenting Production

Cowser’s campaign is off to a tremendous start. The recently turned 24-year-old has been an integral part of the O’s success this season, and he continues to be put in a position to shine. 

The rookie leads all Orioles players with an MVP-esque 1.037 OPS, displaying a healthy combination of power and plate discipline. His .662 slugging percentage leads the team, while his .375 on-base percentage sits behind Ryan Mountcastle‘s team-leading .379 mark by just four points. 

Predictably, those stats translate to solid run production, as well. Cowser has accounted for 28 runs already this season, driving in 17 and coming around to score 11 more. 

Sterling Analytics Profile

As with all the best hitters in the game, Cowser’s success is grounded in elite analytics. The left-handed batting outfielder flashes his top-end skillset in every facet of the game.

So far this season, Cowser has put together a .587 expected slugging percentage, 18.6% barrel, and 51.2% hard-hit rates, ranking in the 96th, 97th, and 89th percentile, respectively. Further, he’s flashing plate discipline beyond his years. Cowser has a modest 21.6% chase rate and a 10.5% walk rate, contributing to his .401 expected weighted on-base average.

It’s not enough that he’s damaging pitchers across the league; Cowser is also an elite defender. The Texas native has shown his range in all three outfield spots, toting an immaculate 100% fielding percentage.

Set Up to Succeed

It’s evident that Cowser is on a sustainable pace in maintaining his current form; however, there’s a more profound consideration supporting long-term production. 

The Orioles feature one of the most consistent lineups in the bigs. All nine regulars have an OPS above .717, leaving opposing pitchers nowhere to hide. Cowser is typically insulated in the order, meaning hurlers have no choice but to pitch to him. As we’re seeing, Cowser is taking advantage.

Complete Package

Cowser is the complete package. He uses all five tools to help the Orioles, cementing himself as an elite hitter and making the most of his time on the basepaths, all while nurturing top-end defensive abilities. That’s precisely the type of profile voters will look for when they cast their ballots in October.

Final Thoughts – Still Value

This is without even considering Cowser’s position relative to other rookies. But as you may expect, he’s leading the pack. Cowser is the MLB leader among rookies in hits, extra-base hits, home runs, runs, RBI, and OPS. He’s still a plus-money contender to earn the distinction of Rookie of the Year. 

A massive gap between Cowser and the rest of the pack is not yet reflected in the betting price. As the season progresses, that difference only becomes more pronounced, meaning now is the time to back him to win this year’s award.

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