MLB · 1 year ago

Pirates vs. Guardians Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

Sportsgrid Staff

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Pirates vs. Guardians Predictions | MLB Picks Today, Best Bets

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Bailey Falter (4.43 ERA) vs. Ben Lively (3.62 ERA)

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The weather calls for runs at Progressive Field, but I can’t fade this Guardians bullpen, who had an off-day to rest up for this one. Ben Lively is also solid, and while he likely gives up a few runs, it’s the Guardians bats we are focusing on today.

Bailey Falter is below average in just about everything. His xERA is above five, and his SIERA is 4.86, implying that overall regression is looming for the southpaw. We don’t need the peripherals to tell us that; he’s below average in strikeout and Hard-Hit rate. He also doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, and 50% of his pitches are 91-92 MPH fastballs.

The Guardians have been on a bit of a slate over the past few months, but one area where the bats have excelled is against left-handed pitching at home. They have a 116 wRC+ in this spot, the eighth-highest mark this season. They also have the fifth-highest ISO, meaning they’ve also tapped into power.

Falter is a fly ball pitcher walking into a ballpark with the eighth-highest park factor for home runs this year. We’ve talked about this park so many times this year. The wind tunnel has balls exiting Progressive Field at a higher rate than ever due to the new renovations this offseason. The Guardians have proved they can hit for power in spots like these, and Falter is an ideal candidate to face in these conditions.

Especially when the wind is blowing out to left field, all the righties in Cleveland’s lineup are live to hit one over the left field wall (Jose Ramirez, Jhonkensy Noel, David Fry, Lane Thomas—I’m looking at you).

The Pirates have a horrific bullpen. They rank 29th in ERA at 5.63 since August 1 and 27th in ERA among 30 teams over the entire season. They just got throttled by the Cubs, so while they did have a day off, they had plenty of use over the past few days. I have zero faith in any arm back there.

I’m projecting three runs allowed by Falter and three by the bullpen. If you feel confident in the Pirates’ bats, you can pivot to the full game over, but I’m much more optimistic that Cleveland is leading the scoring today. Take this to -125, or you can pivot to 5.5 at plus money.