Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Brady Singer (3.03 ERA) vs. Pablo Lopez (4.74 ERA)

This feels like the spot where Brady Singer’s absurd underlying metrics start to come to fruition. I was looking toward the Twins on the ML, but it’s expensive. I looked towards the full game total, but Lopez is really tough to figure out right now. So, I’m backing the Twins to score at a plus price.

Brady Singer’s ERA predictors tell us his 3.03 ERA should not last for the rest of the season. His xERA is at 4.57, his FIP and xFIP are above 3.60, and his SIERA is at 3.86. Sooner or later, he will have a rough outing, and this feels like the spot where it happens.

The Twins are the number two offense in the league against right-handed pitching at home by wRC+. Since the All-Star break, the wRC+ is 138, sixth best in that span. Over the last two weeks, it has grown to 158 wRC+ and a .912 OPS, both the third-best marks in the league.

Over the last week, they are hitting .313/.360/.477 against righties at home. This is a dangerous offense and a bad matchup for Singer.

Singer’s big issue this year is left-handed hitting. Lefties are slashing .296/.367/.493 for a .859 OPS. Compare that to righties, slashing .173/.225/.249. That is an insane difference, and the Twins have a lineup stacked with lefties, and righties that see Singer well.

This Twins lineup should feature five lefties: Willi Castro, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and Carlos Santana. Watch out for Larnach in particular, as he’s 5-10 with a home run against Singer. All of these lefties have at least one extra-base hit against Singer.

The righties in the lineup see him well, especially Byron Buxton. Buxton is 7-15 against Singer with two home runs. Even players like Ryan Jeffers and Manuel Margot are a combined 4-11 against Singer.

When fading Singer, make sure it’s on the road. He has a 3.86 ERA on the road compared to a 2.50 ERA at home. Something about those home Royals

His first start of the year was a seven-inning shutout where he struck out ten and only allowed three hits. Maybe I’m a psycho, but that makes me like this even more. I think the Twins make the adjustment and come out firing.

The Royals bullpen is nothing to be afraid of. They had an off-day yesterday, so they’ll be fresh, but it’s the 24th-ranked bullpen ERA, 22nd-ranked FIP, and 26th-ranked xFIP. They added Hunter Harvey and Lucas Erceg at the deadline to help, but Harvey just hit the IL. Erceg is solid, but the Twins can hit any of these arms.

The Twins should have put up plenty of runs yesterday. They faced Tanner Bibee and the best bullpen in baseball and put up 11 hits but only three runs. In a much easier matchup, I see those runs coming in today.

It’ll be a great place to hit today, as we have 5-8 MPH wind blowing out and temperatures in the high 70s during game time. I project this at five runs, seeing the Twins getting three runs off Singer and two against the bullpen. At a plus number, I’m playing it.