MLB · 1 year ago

Understanding Run Differential: Predicting Team Success

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

Questionable: Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners are leading the AL West for one primary reason: their elite starting rotation, arguably the best in baseball. Despite this strength, their run differential is just +11.

This highlights a significant lack of offense, particularly power. Does this impact their postseason chances? Recent history suggests it does. Home runs have been crucial in winning championships; the Texas Rangers won last year with a +195 differential, largely due to their power hitting.

Power, or the lack thereof, is Seattle's Achilles' heel this season. Strikeouts and poor contact rates further exacerbate their offensive struggles. While some teams succeed with small ball, most past champions boasted substantial positive run differentials, casting doubt on Seattle's October prospects.

The Mariners have excelled in one-run games, showcasing their clutch performance. However, relying on close victories is precarious; dominating games with larger margins is a safer bet.

For fantasy purposes, trading for Bryan Woo could be a savvy move. Despite his injury history, when healthy, he offers elite control and an impressive fastball.

Conversely, acquiring the Mariners' offensive players is risky. Even Julio Rodríguez has been underwhelming this season. Approach Seattle's bats with caution.

https://twitter.com/MarinersONTap/status/1801323741739421876?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

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The Importance of Run Differential in MLB
In today’s MLB landscape, every team is striving to maximize the output of its analytics department. Here are some compelling insights about run differential and why it deserves more of our attention. In a season where overall offense is down, teams are desperate for extra runs. Those additional runs could be the key to winning your fantasy leagues.

SportsGrid delves into the run differentials of four different teams, revealing what this statistic can tell us. Should we invest in players from specific teams? Which teams should we avoid? And what about those we're unsure of?

First, let's cover the basics. Run differential is a cumulative team statistic that combines offensive and defensive scoring. It is calculated by subtracting the runs allowed from the runs scored.

The beauty of run differential lies in its predictive power for identifying overachievers and underachievers. A team is in the black (or often green) if they score more runs than they allow. Conversely, if they allow more runs than they’ve scored, they find themselves in the red.

When targeting a specific player, always check if they are part of a productive team.

The run differentials and other stats referenced were updated before the games on June 28.

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Weak: Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox have the league's worst run differential, a dismal -171, 38 runs worse than the next worst team, the Colorado Rockies. Even the infamous 2003 Detroit Tigers, who had a -136 differential in their first 82 games, weren't this bad.

Is it wise to target White Sox players?

Consider Tommy Pham. If you picked him up expecting a similar production to his 2023 season in New York and Arizona, you've likely been disappointed. Despite his solid performance at the plate for Chicago, his counting stats like RBIs and runs are lacking, which are crucial for fantasy baseball success.

Run differential highlights the overall quality of a team's supporting cast, both hitters and pitchers. Thus, even a typically good player might not be a wise target if he lacks adequate support. Pham exemplifies this issue.

Take Garrett Crochet, a leading Cy Young candidate, for example. Despite his outstanding performance, he only has six wins halfway through the season, which is frustrating for fantasy owners. Unfortunately, a team with such poor offensive support has to back up a talent like Crochet. Let's hope he gets traded before the deadline!

https://twitter.com/CEmma670/status/1798709686054896101?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Strong: New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have emerged as a top-five team in baseball this season.

At the start of the year, many Yankees fans wanted to forget the disappointment of 2023, and understandably so. Last year’s team posted a -25 run differential, a poor showing for a team with one of the highest payrolls annually. Fortunately, the tide has turned, and the Bronx Bombers now boast a +90 differential.

The addition of Juan Soto was widely acknowledged as a significant boost, but few could have predicted the rapid development of Anthony Volpe. If you picked Volpe as your shortstop, your patience has paid off. He now occupies the leadoff spot ahead of Aaron Judge and Soto, arguably the best position in baseball. This prime lineup spot has enabled Volpe to score 55 runs and steal 15 bases in 2024.

Let's not overlook the pitching staff, particularly the impact of Luis Gil. He has improved his control and kept opponents’ scoring in check. The Yankees' impressive run differential wouldn’t be possible if their pitchers weren’t effectively shutting down opposing teams. Gil has become one of the top acquisitions in all fantasy formats.

Targeting Yankee hitters and pitchers is a smart strategy, as their stats support their performance. Despite a slight slump in June, their outstanding April and May performances indicate their potential.

Additionally, the Yankees are in a win-now mode, which means they are likely to make aggressive moves at the trade deadline to strengthen their roster. This willingness to invest heavily in the team enhances the fantasy value of their players.
Confusing: Cleveland Guardians
What about the resilient Cleveland Guardians? Many doubted this team in the first half of the season. Honestly, I'm still uncertain. Their +104 run differential is impressive, but what does it mean for the future?

Are the Guardians playing above their true level?

The addition of David Fry has been a game-changer, not only helping Cleveland take control of the AL Central but also providing significant value to fantasy managers. Fry's eligibility at the catcher position has been a boon for many fantasy teams. And Josh Naylor’s power surge has been remarkable.

Jose Ramirez finally has a strong supporting player in Naylor.

These are positive signs, but run differential and overall success depend on more than just offense.

Cleveland has a reputation for producing quality pitchers. Their current rotation includes Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie, Ben Lively, and Carlos Carrasco. On paper, these names might not stand out, and the underlying stats don't always support their performance. Credit is due, though, as they’ve managed without Shane Bieber and Gavin Williams.

However, a closer look at Allen’s Statcast page reveals concerning metrics, as do the pages of most other starters, except for Bibee. Issues like low velocity and inconsistent command are prevalent.

While Cleveland’s offense remains strong, their pitching luck may soon run out, potentially leading to a lower run differential and fewer wins.
Questionable: Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners are leading the AL West for one primary reason: their elite starting rotation, arguably the best in baseball. Despite this strength, their run differential is just +11.

This highlights a significant lack of offense, particularly power. Does this impact their postseason chances? Recent history suggests it does. Home runs have been crucial in winning championships; the Texas Rangers won last year with a +195 differential, largely due to their power hitting.

Power, or the lack thereof, is Seattle's Achilles' heel this season. Strikeouts and poor contact rates further exacerbate their offensive struggles. While some teams succeed with small ball, most past champions boasted substantial positive run differentials, casting doubt on Seattle's October prospects.

The Mariners have excelled in one-run games, showcasing their clutch performance. However, relying on close victories is precarious; dominating games with larger margins is a safer bet.

For fantasy purposes, trading for Bryan Woo could be a savvy move. Despite his injury history, when healthy, he offers elite control and an impressive fastball.

Conversely, acquiring the Mariners' offensive players is risky. Even Julio Rodríguez has been underwhelming this season. Approach Seattle's bats with caution.

https://twitter.com/MarinersONTap/status/1801323741739421876?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
The Importance of Run Differential in MLB
In today’s MLB landscape, every team is striving to maximize the output of its analytics department. Here are some compelling insights about run differential and why it deserves more of our attention. In a season where overall offense is down, teams are desperate for extra runs. Those additional runs could be the key to winning your fantasy leagues.

SportsGrid delves into the run differentials of four different teams, revealing what this statistic can tell us. Should we invest in players from specific teams? Which teams should we avoid? And what about those we're unsure of?

First, let's cover the basics. Run differential is a cumulative team statistic that combines offensive and defensive scoring. It is calculated by subtracting the runs allowed from the runs scored.

The beauty of run differential lies in its predictive power for identifying overachievers and underachievers. A team is in the black (or often green) if they score more runs than they allow. Conversely, if they allow more runs than they’ve scored, they find themselves in the red.

When targeting a specific player, always check if they are part of a productive team.

The run differentials and other stats referenced were updated before the games on June 28.

Have all the intel you need? Free actionable info is one click away! Sign up for our daily newsletter, SportsGrid Daily.

Understanding Run Differential: Predicting Team Success

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