NBA · 1 hour ago

2026 NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Grinding Out the Under in Philly and Fading the Spurs in Portland

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

The NBA postseason rolls on, as road teams become home sides and vice versa, a night after, as I assured you, my Toronto Raptors covered. Hopefully, you took the less conservative suggestion of playing the moneyline over the spread in the blowout win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Today, we have more Game 3s, one from each conference. In the East, the Boston Celtics hit the City of Brotherly Love, knotted at 1-1 with the plucky Philadelphia 76ers. In the Pacific Northwest, the upstart Portland Trail Blazers look to take a series lead over the Wemby-panic San Antonio Spurs.

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Where to Watch Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers

Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena – Philadelphia, PA
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers Betting Odds

Spread: BOS -7.5 (-108) | PHI +7.5 (-112)
Total: Over 215.5 (-108) | Under 215.5 (-112)
Moneyline: BOS -295 | PHI +240

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers Kalshi Odds

Chance: BOS 72% | PHI 28%
Spread: BOS wins by over 7.5 points: Yes (50¢) | No (51¢)
Total: Over 215.5 points scored: Yes (52¢) | No (50¢)

BOS vs PHI Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers Under 215.5 (-112)

The Celtics are landing in Philadelphia with plenty of motivation after getting handled at home in a 111-97 loss during Game 2. A defensive lapse that allowed the Sixers to explode for 37 points in the second quarter and a 62-point half is a rarity for a squad that finished the year with the fourth best DRTG in basketball at 111.7. Expect Boston to tighten up their perimeter coverage and play with much more discipline on the road.

While the Philadelphia 76ers haven’t always been elite defensively this year, they have shown they have the specific recipe to slow down Boston. They held the Celtics under 110 points three separate times during the season, and in two of those contests, they kept them at 100 or less. We saw that again in Game 2, where they limited the Celtics to 97 points on 39% shooting. Philadelphia relies on being disruptive, ranking fifth in the NBA with 9.2 SPG in the regular season. Tyrese Maxey is the clear leader of that effort; his 1.9 SPG not only led the team but tied for 3rd in the league.

With Joel Embiid currently doubtful (appendicitis) the Celtics will likely focus their entire defensive game plan on Maxey. He played a game-high 40 minutes and dropped 29 points last time out, but asking him to carry that load again is a big ask. It is also highly improbable that VJ Edgecombe delivers another 30-point performance after he averaged just over 16 PPG throughout the season. I expect this matchup to look a lot more like Game 1, when Boston held Philly to just 91 points. This should be a much slower, more methodical grind than the pace we saw earlier in the week.

The under is the play tonight in Philly.

Where to Watch San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers

Location: Moda Center – Portland. OR
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers Betting Odds

Spread: SA -2.5 (-108) | POR +2.5 (-112)
Total: Over 219.5 (-114) | Under 219.5 (-106)
Moneyline: SA -138 | POR +118

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers Kalshi Odds

Chance: SA 56% | POR 44%
Spread: SA wins by over 1.5 points: Yes (56¢) | No (46¢)
Total: Over 220.5 points scored: Yes (49¢) | No (53¢)

SA vs POR Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Maybe it’s just me, but I like this Portland Trail Blazers bunch. Granted, the San Antonio Spurs outplayed them for much of their Game 2 upset in Texas, aside from a big Portland run. Even after Victor Wembanyama exited with a concussion in the second quarter, San Antonio was able to hang. That said, as the series shifts to the Pacific Northwest, where there hasn’t been meaningful basketball since Damian Lillard‘s first stint, the Moda Center will be rocking.

This line opened at 3.5 and has been sliding Portland’s way ever since, even after Wemby was upgraded from doubtful to questionable, as he goes through concussion protocol. On paper, the Blazers match up pretty decently with the Spurs. Close in regular-season scoring (-4.2 PPG), rebounding (-1.0 RPG), and defense (-5.0 PPG), the Blazers have a clear edge if Wembanyama is out, limited, or takes another knock in Game 3.

Much of Portland’s unexpected success this season has been due to Deni Avdija‘s breakout campaign. The team leader in scoring (24.2 PPG) and facilitating (6.7 APG) has carried his momentum and the team into the playoffs. The 2020 ninth overall pick dropped a game-high 41 on Phoenix to lead Portland through the Play-In and had a 30-10 double-double in Portland’s Game 1 loss in San Antonio. He’ll have to stay out of foul trouble, which limited him to just 30 minutes in Game 2.

Behind Avdija, former NBA champion Jrue Holiday brings toughness, defense, and veteran leadership to the backcourt, averaging 9.5 APG in the series so far. It looks like Holiday’s pedigree is rubbing off on former No. 3 pick and backcourt mate Scoot Henderson. Scoot is making those who stamped the bust tag on him think twice already wrong, coming off a game-high 31 in Game 2.

Given his health issues, the Spurs may play it safe with Wemby, but just to be sure, wait until confirmation is made before laying your bet. If “The Alien" suits up, the spread is the way to go, as it will certainly give you a few more points to play with. Otherwise, we’re full steam ahead on the moneyline.