2026 NBA Playoff Best Bets: Why Jalen Brunson and the Raptors are Tonight’s Sharpest Plays

The NBA postseason heat is turning up as we head into a pivotal night of Game 3 action. We have the New York Knicks traveling to take on the Atlanta Hawks in a series that has been defined by high-drama finishes, while the Cleveland Cavaliers look to take a commanding stranglehold on the Toronto Raptors north of the border. After a wild start to the week, it is time to see which teams can capitalize on their home-court advantage and which stars are ready to carry the heavy lifting for their squads.

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Where to Watch New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks

Location: State Farm Arena
Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks Betting Odds

Spread: NYK -1.5 (-104) | ATL +1.5 (-118)
Total: Over 215.5 (-110) | Under 215.5 (-110)
Moneyline: NYK -118 | ATL +100

New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks Kalshi Odds

Chance: NYK 51% | ATL 49%
Spread: NYK wins by over 1.5: Yes (49¢) | No (52¢)
Total: Over 213.5: Yes (54¢) | No (47¢)

Jalen Brunson Over 33.5 Points+Assists (-114)

After a shocking Game 2 loss at Madison Square Garden, I expect Jalen Brunson to put the Knicks on his back and return the favor to the Hawks in Atlanta. While blowing a 12-point fourth-quarter lead may be on Brunson a little bit from a defensive standpoint, it certainly wasn’t due to a lack of effort on the offensive side of the ball. The star point guard dropped seven dimes for the second straight game while also pouring in 29 points. While Brunson’s 40% shooting from deep is more than acceptable, his 10-of-26 mark from the field was not.

I expect the Knicks’ floor general to be a bit more selective with his looks on the road tonight. During the regular season, Brunson averaged 29.3 PPG and 7.7 APG against the Hawks, which included a massive 30-point, 13-assist performance in a win on Atlanta’s home floor just over two weeks ago. The Hawks rank around the middle of the pack defensively, allowing 23.8 PPG to opposing point guards while giving up 8.3 APG to the position.

I like Brunson to have another high-usage night and lead the Knicks to a win in this pivotal road matchup.

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Where to Watch Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors

Location: Scotiabank Arena
Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors Betting Odds

Spread: CLE -2.5 (-114) | TOR +2.5 (-106)
Total: Over 221.5 (-112) | Under 221.5 (-108)
Moneyline: CLE -156 | TOR +132

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors Kalshi Odds

Chance: CLE 58% | TOR 42%
Spread: CLE wins by over 3.5: Yes (48¢) | No (53¢)
Total: Over 222.5: Yes (49¢) | No (53¢)

Toronto Raptors +3.5

Even though the Cavaliers are up 2-0 and won both games in Cleveland by double digits, this series is a lot closer than it looks on paper. The Raptors made several critical adjustments in Game 2, particularly by cleaning up the glass and winning the physical battle. They outrebounded Cleveland 42-35 and dominated in the paint, outscoring the Cavs 64-52. These two areas were major hurdles in Game 1, where Toronto struggled to guard the pick-and-roll and allowed way too many easy buckets inside.

The real killer in Game 2 was the Raptors’ 22 turnovers, compared to just 14 for Cleveland. Unfortunately for Toronto, many of these miscues came at inopportune times when it seemed like the momentum was about to swing in their favor. Back at home, I expect the Raptors to shoot the three significantly better than the 27% clip they posted on Monday. If Immanuel Quickley (questionable – hamstring) is able to return to the lineup, it would drastically improve Toronto’s attack from deep while also better unlocking Brandon Ingram on the offensive end. I also expect Toronto to relentlessly attack James Harden, as it seemed like they could score on him at will in the fourth quarter during the last matchup.

It may seem like old news now, but the Raptors did beat Cleveland three times this season, albeit this squad version is a little different. The atmosphere in Jurassic Park will be a factor, and the Dinos should show more energy than they have during gap stretches in the first two games of the series.

I’ll take the points, but I think the Raptors win this one outright, so don’t be shy about making a play on the moneyline at +132 on FanDuel.

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