NCAAB · 1 year ago

Bubble Watch on 2/20: Last Four In, First Four Out, Next Four Out

David Connelly

Host · Writer

Next Four Out: Indiana State
This is more a formality as the Sycamores are on their way out of the door regarding the bubble picture after two disastrous losses a week after being ranked in the AP Top 25. Indiana State has played itself out of at-large consideration. They will be passed by power conference teams that will inevitably capitalize on better opportunities in the coming weeks while Indiana State plays through the cellar of the Missouri Valley until Arch Madness kicks off.
Last Four In: Mississippi State
The Bulldogs have been on the bubble for the better part of the past few weeks. While both the result-based and predictive metrics like Mississippi State, their shocking losses to Georgia Tech and Southern earlier in the season are massive blemishes on their resume. Their inability to win away from home is also holding them back quite a bit, with just a 1-6 record in true road games this season.

Two golden opportunities away from home await them to kick off March: Trips to Auburn and Texas A&M. If the Bulldogs can split that road trip, they should be dancing next month.
Last Four In: Nevada
The Mountain West's most likely hope at a six-bid league resides in Reno with the Wolf Pack. While they have the five Quad 1 wins that help get them into the field of 68, the poor non-conference strength of schedule of 259th and some lousy predictive metrics are working against Nevada. Their impressive wins over Utah State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and TCU still keep them afloat and in the field, but another unexpected loss could be their demise.
Last Four In: Cincinnati
Cincinnati's savior has been their new conference residence, the Big 12, otherwise known as the land of opportunity for at-large candidates. The Bearcats have notched wins over BYU, Texas Tech, and UCF, all counting towards their Quad 1 record.

They cannot afford to continue racking up losses and trending in the wrong direction with the results-based metrics. KPI has them at 48th while their strength of record is just 45th. To feel completely safe, it'd be in their best interest to get those numbers into the 30s.
Last Four In: Gonzaga
Our last team into the field, the Bulldogs, weaseled their way in from the outside with that monumental win over Kentucky in Rupp Arena last week. While up at 23rd in the NET rankings with predictive metrics ranking within the top 20, Gonzaga lacks the quality wins that would help cement them into the field. Outside of the win over the Wildcats, Gonzaga's next best win is over a good San Francisco team, but nowhere near NCAA Tournament caliber. They must take down Saint Mary's in their rematch to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.
First Four Out: Seton Hall
With five Quad 1 victories, we understand the case that can be made for Seton Hall's inclusion. The concern is with their metrics and a NET ranking of 63rd. None of their predictive nor results-based metrics are inside the top 40 nationally, and their non-conference strength of schedule of 241st is certainly not helping either. Wins over UConn and Marquette are elite, but they'll need to improve on those metrics to leapfrog anybody in our field.
First Four Out: Utah
Utah's recent implosion has brought them from the nine-seed line all the way to the wrong side of the bubble. They have dropped five of their previous seven and now sit between 40 and 50 in nearly every metric. Their road record of 2-6 is troubling, and a home loss to Arizona State is a worrying data point. That said, three wins over likely NCAA Tournament teams in BYU, Saint Mary's, and Washington State are helping their cause and keeping them in the conversation.
First Four Out: Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons had a wacky change to their resume over the weekend. Despite falling to Virginia in one of the ugliest games we've seen all season, they picked up their first Quad 1 win of the year. After Florida defeated Georgia and moved into the top 30 of the NET, it improved the ranking of their win in late November over the Gators. It's an odd nuance to the Quadrant format of resumes in college basketball, but it fills a gaping hole in Wake's case.

Their 2-7 road record and 57th strength of record are underwhelming, and they'll have to knock off either Duke or Clemson in their remaining regular-season games to get on the right side of the bubble.
First Four Out: Villanova
Villanova's exclusion simply comes down to their rapidly growing amount of losses. At 14-11, they are right at the threshold the selection committee has set in previous seasons, where you typically have to be at least three games above .500 to be in at-large consideration.

The remaining regular season will tell us all we need to know about these Wildcats. This week features matchups against Butler and UConn. If they can split those at the bare minimum, they might be able to get on the right side of the bubble next week.
Next Four Out: Colorado
This is where the drop-off really hits, and teams have clear deficiencies in their resume. While the Buffs have zero losses in the bottom two quadrants and a top-40 KenPom ranking, they have no wins over our projected field and a 2-7 road record—two brutal blemishes.

Their primary issue is their lack of quality opportunities remaining in the regular season outside of a matchup against Utah on Saturday. It may take a big-time showing in the Pac-12 Tournament for Colorado to make it to Dayton.
Next Four Out: Drake
Two Quad 1 wins are rare for a mid-major, but the Bulldogs have victories over Nevada and Bradley, which both qualify. Three Quad 3 losses are not ideal, but they make up for it with some solid metrics ranging between 32nd and 54th. While Drake's current resume is quite close to sufficient for an at-large bid, they suffer a similar fate as Colorado. There are few remaining opportunities on their schedule to improve it any further
Next Four Out: Pittsburgh
The Panthers have stormed into the at-large conversation with seven wins in their previous eight, including road victories at Duke and Virginia and a home triumph over Wake Forest.

They still have plenty of chances ahead of them with road trips to Wake Forest and Clemson, both Quad 1 opportunities. If they can win one of those for a fourth Quad 1 victory and avoid any bad losses, they may leapfrog those with lesser opportunities ahead of them. However, they did themselves no favors with a lackluster non-conference strength of schedule, sitting at 347th.
Next Four Out: Indiana State
This is more a formality as the Sycamores are on their way out of the door regarding the bubble picture after two disastrous losses a week after being ranked in the AP Top 25. Indiana State has played itself out of at-large consideration. They will be passed by power conference teams that will inevitably capitalize on better opportunities in the coming weeks while Indiana State plays through the cellar of the Missouri Valley until Arch Madness kicks off.
Last Four In: Mississippi State
The Bulldogs have been on the bubble for the better part of the past few weeks. While both the result-based and predictive metrics like Mississippi State, their shocking losses to Georgia Tech and Southern earlier in the season are massive blemishes on their resume. Their inability to win away from home is also holding them back quite a bit, with just a 1-6 record in true road games this season.

Two golden opportunities away from home await them to kick off March: Trips to Auburn and Texas A&M. If the Bulldogs can split that road trip, they should be dancing next month.

Bubble Watch on 2/20: Last Four In, First Four Out, Next Four Out

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