CBB Best Bets Today: 5-Star Model Picks & Jan. 30 Expert Value

College hoops is back in full swing. With 2026 off and running, there are betting opportunities nearly every day between now and April. We’ve got you covered for Friday!

Analysis by Gabe Santiago, leveraging the SportsGrid 5-star predictive model. Our SportsGrid predictive model doesn’t stop at the spread. See which player props have a 5-star rating tonight. Unlock your betting edge!

SportsGrid Edge: Michigan State +1.5 (-120)

Where to Watch Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: MICH vs. MSU
• Venue: Breslin Center
• Location: East Lansing, MI
• Where to Watch: FOX
• Date: January 30, 2026
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

MICH vs. MSU Betting Odds & Market Value

MICH vs. MSU Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

As we prepare for the weekend, there are numerous rivalry clashes in college basketball. Still, none will be more contentious than the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (19-1) visiting the No. 7 Michigan State Spartans (19-2).

Notably, there is never any love lost between Michigan and MSU (just ask Draymond Green and Jordan Poole). This meeting in East Lansing will be the first of the season between these Paul Bunyan foes. Many consider U-M to be the top squad in the Big Ten, but the Spartans can subvert that narrative on Friday night.

Michigan enters this bid as a slight road favorite. That makes sense, considering KenPom has the Wolverines listed second in the nation right now (compared to MSU at seventh). U-M has produced 90.8 PPG, which is a top-10 clip. From there, Michigan has also been strong defensively; its 92.3 defensive rating ranks fourth in Division I.

Michigan State — in its 31st season under head coach Tom Izzo — has the talent and skills to make another run in 2025-26. To this point, Sparty has gone 9-1 in conference play. Additionally, they are 11-1 at home. MSU does not score at the same level as Michigan, but the Spartans play stifling defense. At this juncture, MSU’s defensive rating is 94.0 (12th of 365 schools).

Historically, Michigan State has dominated the Maize & Blue on the hardwood. The Spartans hold a 35-16 record versus the Wolverines. From there, Michigan is just 3-21 when playing in East Lansing; U-M has not won at Michigan State since 2018. Sparty’s home crowd is well aware of this, and they will certainly bring the energy to the Breslin Center.

Michigan is 7-11 (38.9%) ATS this season. I am expecting a close contest, but I prefer to take 1.5 points on MSU at home in this heated rivalry.

SportsGrid Edge: Nevada -9.5 (-110)

Where to Watch UNLV Runnin’ Rebels vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: UNLV vs. NEV
• Venue: Lawlor Events Center
• Location: Reno, NV
• Where to Watch: CBSSN
• Date: January 30, 2026
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET

UNLV vs. NEV Betting Odds & Market Value

Speaking of heated rivalries, the Silver State Series is one that always brings intensity. As such, the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (10-10) will head up to Reno for a Friday-night romp with the Nevada Wolf Pack (15-6).

UNLV is in its first campaign under head coach Josh Pastner. It has been a rough season for the Runnin’ Rebels to this point, as they are 5-4 against fellow Mountain West schools. The Rebs have been mediocre on both ends of the floor. Entering Friday, UNLV is placed 216th in offensive rating (108.0) and 221st in defensive rating (107.1).

Nevada has high hopes of winning its first conference title since 2017. Still, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Wolf Pack at long 25-to-1 odds in that category. UNR has gone 7-3 in the Mountain West this year. The Pack is also superior to UNLV on offense. Nevada has scored 76.3 PPG this season, and its offensive rating (113.9) has them ranked in the top 100.

These in-state rivals show quite narrow all-time results, logging 21 head-to-head wins apiece. However, I think UNR edges out the Rebels for win No. 22 tonight. SportsGrid’s prediction model strongly concurs, giving the Wolf Pack an 88% winning probability here. Subsequently, Nevada -9.5 is viewed as a five-star wager tonight. 

College Basketball Best Bets: January 30

• Michigan State +1.5 (-120)
• Nevada -9.5 (-110)

Friday brings numerous opportunities to set a profitable tone on the hardwood. Best of luck!

Gabe Santiago is a Senior Betting Analyst at SportsGrid, where he bridges the gap between advanced algorithmic modeling and real-world wagering. Specializing in high-conviction plays, Gabe focuses on the SportsGrid Predictive Model, meticulously cross-referencing its “Five-Star" outputs with situational market data.