March Madness 2026 Best Bets: First Four Picks for Tonight, Mar. 17

We’ve got a pair of First Four showdowns to kick things off as Howard takes on UMBC, followed by Texas battling North Carolina State to round out the night! Check it out as we prepare you for an exciting start to March Madness with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

Year to Date Record: 29-22 | Units: +5.64 units (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Howard ML (-115)

Where to Watch Howard vs. UMBC

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: HOW vs. UMBC
• Venue: University of Dayton Arena
• Location: Dayton, OH
• Where to Watch: truTV
• Date: March 17, 2026
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET

Howard vs. UMBC Central Betting Odds & Market Value

Howard vs. UMBC Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

We’ve got a fun one to tip things off in the NCAA Tournament between two evenly-matched foes in a game that is a virtual pick ’em right now across the board. The key here that could lean things in Howard’s favor is their strong defense. Ranked 117th in defensive efficiency on KenPom, it would be the fourth-best defense that UMBC has faced all season. The other four defenses ranked inside the top 150 that they faced this year all ended in losses. Despite strong shooting metrics and a balanced attack, their offense struggles against stronger defensive opponents. That’s exactly what Howard brings to the table. The Bison have only allowed three of their previous 18 opponents to score more than 70 points.

The offensive glass also points to Howard, ranking in the top 20 nationally in offensive rebounding rate, while UMBC sits in the bottom 25. Those second and third-chance opportunities will quickly rack up and lead to far more field goal attempts for the MEAC representative. Back the Bison to get it done and move into the Round of 64 on Tuesday night.

For more College Basketball picks, check out SportsGrid’s predictive model. Our SportsGrid predictive model doesn’t stop at the spread. See which player props have a 5-star rating tonight. Unlock your betting edge!

SportsGrid Edge: OVER 157.7 (-115) TEX-NC STATE

Where to Watch Texas vs. North Carolina State

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: TEX vs. NCST
• Venue: University of Dayton Arena
• Location: Dayton, OH
• Where to Watch: truTV
• Date: March 17, 2026
• Time: 9:15 p.m. ET

Texas vs. North Carolina State Betting Odds & Market Value

We should be in for a treat of a doubleheader to tip off the First Four on Tuesday night as Texas and North Carolina State match up in yet another game that is being projected as a virtual coin flip. It’s rare for teams facing off in the First Four to have played each other in the regular season, and the Longhorns beat the Wolfpack in a 102-97 thriller.

We’re expecting more of the same in the scoring department in this rematch, a game that features offenses ranked in the top 20 and defenses ranked outside the top 85 nationally. It’s always fun to go for the over in these tightly contested matchups as well, because it’s our best chance at getting some overtime, which would be a massive boost if they weren’t able to clear this total in the allotted 40 minutes. Take the over and expect some offensive fireworks in this matchup.

College Basketball Best Bets: March 17

• Howard ML (-115)
• Texas/NC State Over 157.5 (-115)

Conference tournaments are entering full swing, and there are plenty of betting opportunities throughout March. Best of luck!