CBB Best Bets Today: 5-Star Model Picks & Feb. 3 Expert Value
Gabriel Santiago
Host · Writer
College hoops is back in full swing. With 2026 off and running, there are betting opportunities nearly every day between now and April. We’ve got you covered for Tuesday!
CBB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for February 3Analysis by Gabe Santiago, leveraging the SportsGrid 5-star predictive model. Our SportsGrid predictive model doesn’t stop at the spread. See which player props have a 5-star rating tonight. Unlock your betting edge!
SportsGrid Edge: Miami (OH) -4.5 (-115)
Where to Watch Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Buffalo Bulls
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: M-OH vs. BUF
- Venue: Alumni Arena
- Location: Buffalo, NY
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Date: February 3, 2026
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
M-OH vs. BUF Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | Miami RedHawks (M-OH) | Buffalo Bulls (BUF) |
| Moneyline | -230 | +188 |
| Spread | -4.5 (-115) | +4.5 (-105) |
| Total (O/U 164.5) | Over: -114 | Under: -106 |
M-OH vs. BUF Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | Miami RedHawks (M-OH) | Buffalo Bulls (BUF) |
| Direct Win Probability | 67% | 33% |
| Cover Spread (M-OH -4.5) | Yes: 53¢ | No: 47¢ |
| Total 164.5 Points | Yes: 48¢ | No: 52¢ |
Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange
Again, this is Tuesday, so why not sprinkle in a little MACtion to get us through the week? As such, I have my eye on the No. 24 Miami-OH RedHawks (22-0) visiting the Buffalo Bulls (14-8).
The undefeated RedHawks are producing one of the finest basketball campaigns in school history. In their 22 wins, they have been forced to overtime on three occasions, including their most recent victory over the Bulls. However, Buffalo is not on par with Miami University. At this juncture, Miami-OH leads all of Division I in scoring, shelling out 93.7 PPG. From there, the RedHawks’ 126.7 offensive rating lands second in the nation.
The University at Buffalo has been so-so in 2025-26, but they have floundered in conference play. Currently, the Bulls are 4-6 versus fellow MAC schools. Much of that can be attributed to a porous defense. Buffalo has allowed 75.6 PPG and, as a result, its defensive rating is 111.5 (301st out of 365).
Miami-OH has been one of the top cover teams in college hoops. The RedHawks are 14-5 (73.7%) ATS against Division I opponents this season. SportsGrid’s predictive model is also high on the road team in this spot; RedHawks -4.5 is labeled as a five-star play. For me, it is an easy decision to lay the points on Miami-OH.
SportsGrid Edge: Virginia -13.5
Where to Watch Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Virginia Cavaliers
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: PITT vs. UVA
- Venue: John Paul Jones Arena
- Location: Charlottesville, VA
- Where to Watch: ACC Network
- Date: February 3, 2026
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
PITT vs. UVA Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | Pittsburgh Panthers (PITT) | Virginia Cavaliers (UVA) |
| Moneyline | +810 | -1450 |
| Spread | +13.5 (-105) | -13.5 (-115) |
| Total (O/U 140.5) | Over: -115 | Under: -105 |
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | Pittsburgh Panthers (PITT) | Virginia Cavaliers (UVA) |
| Direct Win Probability | 9% | 91% |
| Cover Spread (UVA -14.5) | Yes: 46¢ | No: 54¢ |
| Total 140.5 Points | Yes: 53¢ | No: 47¢ |
When it comes to basketball, the ACC is one of the most entertaining conferences in the country. Still, I don’t think the Pittsburgh Panthers (9-13) are in the same class as the No. 17 Virginia Cavaliers (18-3).
The Panthers will travel to Charlottesville with hopes of pulling off a major upset. For reference, Pittsburgh is ranked 101st on KenPom. Meanwhile, Virginia chimes in at 17th overall. The Panthers have played quite poorly in conference games this year. They are 2-7 when taking on fellow ACC schools. From there, they have surrendered 72.0 PPG, which is mediocre at best.
The Cavaliers are a powerful squad in 2025-26. Aside from its overall record, UVA has posted a 7-2 conference record. This group is exceptionally gifted on offense. Virginia boasts a 122.3 offensive rating, which is the 12th-best clip in Division I hoops. The Cavaliers are scoring 84.0 PPG, and I don’t believe Pittsburgh will be able to weather that storm on the road.
Yes, 13.5 points is no short task, but given the disparity between UVA and Pitt, laying the points on Virginia feels like the wisest betting angle here. SportsGrid’s prediction market concurs, listing the Cavaliers with a 93% winning probability. From there, UVA -13.5 renders as a five-star wager.
College Basketball Best Bets: February 3
- Miami-OH -4.5 (-115)
- Virginia -13.5 (-115)
Tuesday brings numerous opportunities to set a profitable tone on the hardwood. Best of luck!
Gabe Santiago is a Senior Betting Analyst at SportsGrid, where he bridges the gap between advanced algorithmic modeling and real-world wagering. Specializing in high-conviction plays, Gabe focuses on the SportsGrid Predictive Model, meticulously cross-referencing its “Five-Star" outputs with situational market data.
