NCAAB · 1 year ago

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch Daily: 16 Teams Around the Bubble

David Connelly

Host · Writer

Next Four Out: Ohio State
Ohio State had life going into Friday's quarterfinals against Illinois. The Buckeyes are behind in the top quadrants due to the lack of quality victories they were able to accrue for a majority of the season. While head coach Jake Diebler helped this team make up a ton of ground it's too little too late, as failed to get a marque win over the Illini.
Last Four Byes: TCU
TCU has slipped down to our nine-seed line largely due to their dreadful non-conference strength of schedule, a load of Quad 1 losses, and a poor KPI ranking of 59th. The Horned Frogs are saved by no bad losses and statement wins over Houston and Baylor.
Last Four Byes: Northwestern
Like TCU, the Wildcats have nothing to worry about in terms of making the field. They have slid down to our last nine-seed for a poor non-conference schedule including a shocking Quad 4 defeat to Chicago State. Wins over Purdue and Illinois have ensured they will be dancing.
Last Four Byes: Oklahoma
The Sooners should be fine, but they fall into our bubble with Mississippi State elevating after their win over Tennessee on Friday afternoon. Oklahoma has the cookie-cutter middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team resumé, consisting of a boatload of Quad 1 losses and a messy road record, but some statement wins and supportive metrics. They'll be in, but not by much, given how they closed out the season.
Last Four Byes: Michigan State
Sparty is pretty safely into the field here. We won't punish them for falling to Purdue in the quarterfinals, and they took care of business in the first round by beating Minnesota. Our bracket projections have them as a ten-seed.
Last Four In: Florida Atlantic
The Owls have a wild resumé, consisting of losses in all four quadrants and a neutral court win over Arizona. Their stunning loss to Temple in the American Tournament semifinals cost them a seed line and now has them clinging to their spot in the field.
Last Four In: Texas A&M
The Aggies have a ridiculously confusing resumé, with five Quad 1 wins but five Quad 3 losses. They nearly offset each other, and it leaves the Aggies in limbo. We will give them the benefit of the doubt as they've shown an incredibly high ceiling compared to most on the bubble, especially across their impressive SEC Tournament run.
Last Four In: Colorado
Perhaps the biggest bubble matchup of Thursday's slate, Colorado took it to Utah for a majority of the game and pushed itself into positioning as our final bye team. The Buffs have incredible metrics, but the lack of statement victories holds their resumé back. They clinched their spot in the field with a win over Washington State in the semifinals, and narrowly stayed in despite defeat to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship.
Last Four In: St. John's
The Johnnies have gone from nowhere near bubble talk to now being in Dayton. They won a crucial matchup over Seton Hall in the quarterfinals and were playing with house money against UConn in the semifinals. While they scored 90 in a valiant effort, the Johnnies fell short against the defending champs. They remain in the field regardless.
First Four Out: Virginia
Virginia is the most recent victim of the trio of bid steals we witnessed over the weekend. They were previously in our field, but we had to cut the list short by three teams Sunday morning. The Cavaliers could get in based on their results-based metrics and lack of bad losses, but they fall just short for us.
First Four Out: Pittsburgh
Pitt's 9-8 record in the first two quadrants is great and nearly good enough to get them into the tournament alone. The thorn in the side of the Panthers is its pair of Quad 3 losses to Syracuse and Missouri and a non-conference strength of schedule ranking at 344th. They fall just short as the second team out of our field.
First Four Out: Seton Hall
For a large majority of the season, Seton Hall had the result-based metrics to help keep them in the field. Those have begun to betray them, and they now sit outside of the top 60 in three of the four team-sheet metrics, with their season now over after Thursday's loss to St. John's. A 9-11 record in the top two quadrants isn't bad, but it just falls an inch short of the rest of the bubble.
First Four Out: Providence
The Friars really made themselves a compelling case with their win over Creighton on Thursday night. They have been incredibly resilient after losing Bryce Hopkins, and advanced to the Big East semifinals. They fell short to Marquette, and they now will miss our field because of it.
Next Four Out: Indiana State
We are incredibly sad to report that we do not believe Indiana State has the goods to make the NCAA Tournament. Just one Quad 1 win, a road victory over Bradley, doesn't feel like enough to get over the line here when compared to their bubble peers. The metrics are all within the top 45, which could be enough, but the full team sheet is just lacking a bit too much on the high-end for us.
Next Four Out: Wake Forest
While they are listed in our first four out, this is the first team on our bubble watch that would feel like a total stunner if put in the field. The loss to Pitt in the ACC quarterfinal sealed their fate as we just do not see the Demon Deacons even being considered with a 1-7 Quad 1 record and result-based metrics sitting outside the top 50.
Next Four Out: Utah
The Utes were shipped off on the same boat as Wake Forest when they got clobbered by Colorado in the Pac-12 quarterfinals. An 8-12 record in the top two quadrants, a 2-9 record in true road games, and two Quad 3 losses is a great way to play yourself off the bubble.
Next Four Out: Ohio State
Ohio State had life going into Friday's quarterfinals against Illinois. The Buckeyes are behind in the top quadrants due to the lack of quality victories they were able to accrue for a majority of the season. While head coach Jake Diebler helped this team make up a ton of ground it's too little too late, as failed to get a marque win over the Illini.
Last Four Byes: TCU
TCU has slipped down to our nine-seed line largely due to their dreadful non-conference strength of schedule, a load of Quad 1 losses, and a poor KPI ranking of 59th. The Horned Frogs are saved by no bad losses and statement wins over Houston and Baylor.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch Daily: 16 Teams Around the Bubble

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