NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch Daily: 16 Teams Around the Bubble

Next Four Out: Ole Miss

It's been nothing short of an epic collapse in Oxford this season. Losers of eight of their previous ten, the Rebels have left themselves with plenty of work to do in the SEC Tournament to get back into the field. Should Ole Miss fall short of a spot in the NCAA Tournament this season, it'll be Chris Beard's first season without an invitation to the Big Dance since 2017, his first season in Lubbock with Texas Tech.

Last Four Byes: New Mexico

Everything was looking solidified for New Mexico heading into the final two weeks of the regular season until they took a brutal Quad 4 home loss to Air Force two weeks ago. It's cost them a seed line and has pushed them to the front of our 11-seed line, where they currently reside. It would take some further catastrophes for the Lobos to play their way out of the projected field, but they thankfully avoid a landmine as they close out the season with Utah State. A win there or some success in the Mountain West Tournament next week would ease plenty of Sunday scaries on Selection Sunday for the Lobos.

Last Four Byes: Indiana State

A top 30 NET with result-based and predictive metrics all landing within the top 45 is something you simply can't ignore. Indiana State's 1-3 record in Quad 1 is a blemish on their resumé, but a 9-4 road record should impress the selection committee. They are the favorites to win the Missouri Valley this season, meaning the committee's services may not be required for the Sycamores to put on their dancing shoes. Should they fall to receive the league's auto bid, and they could be square on the bubble come Selection Sunday.

Last Four Byes: St. John's

What a rise it's been for the Johnnies, as we mentioned in our latest bracketology projections. It seemed they played their way out of at-large consideration a few weeks ago, but three consecutive wins and some favorable shifting in the NET have given them a sufficient resumé to be in the field for now. Team sheet aside, the Red Storm are playing like one of the best teams in the country right now. During their win streak over the past two weeks, St. John's ranks 11th in the nation per Bart Torvik's T-Rank. This is not a team you want to face in the Big East Tournament and beyond.

Last Four In: Villanova (-188 to Make, +140 to Miss)

We know Villanova's got the potential to do some damage in the field with wins over North Carolina, Creighton, and Texas Tech, but we just can't get over that pile of awful losses on the right side of their team sheet. Defeats to Saint Joseph's, Drexel, and Penn really drag down their results-based metrics and have become a massive wart to this resumé that has kept them on the wrong side of the bubble for most of the season. They are narrowly in for now with some supportive metrics and quality performances, but they did themselves no favors taking that loss to Seton Hall on Wednesday.

Last Four In: Virginia

With a ranking of 36 and 35 in both results-based metrics, the KPI and Strength of Record, there is no world where Virginia doesn't get in with numbers that strong. They get a free crack at effectively locking themselves into the field with a trip to Durham to take on Duke on Saturday, followed by a home stand against Georgia Tech. Avoid disaster against the Yellow Jackets next weekend, and the Cavaliers should be dancing, regardless of their ACC Tournament showing.

Last Four In: Providence

The Friars are far and away the most controversial bubble team of 2024. It all depends on how you believe the selection committee will handle the season-ending injury to Bryce Hopkins, something Providence has responded well to since their stud went down back in early January. While their metrics hang right around the bubbly late 40s and early 50s range, it's difficult to ignore a team with five Quad 1 wins and no losses in the bottom two quadrants. Racking up strong wins and avoiding bad losses is the name of the game, and the Friars have done that all season long.

Last Four In: Colorado

The selection committee always seeks times when teams prove they can hang with the best of the country. Despite countless chances to prove this, the Buffs have seen their well of opportunity run dry with just two Quad 1 wins over Washington and Oregon. The bracket will have to break Colorado's way in the Pac-12 Tournament for any hopes of at-large consideration. Take down Washington State or Arizona in Vegas next week, and perhaps Tad Boyle's squad will have a case.

First Four Out: Iowa

While the First Four Out may be considered a bad thing for most teams, Iowa deserves some credit for even getting to this point. The Hawkeyes were nowhere near the bubble radar a few weeks back but have ripped off wins in four of their past five to help get them squarely on the bubble. Their metrics continue to rise the ranks, and they can really bust the doors down of the projected field with a win at home against Illinois on Saturday night. 

First Four Out: Utah

Utah really screwed their spot up on the right of the bubble with Thursday's loss at lowly Oregon State. Washington State and Arizona are really the only two teams who could help the Utes improve their team sheet in the Pac-12 Tournament, and they'll need to knock one of them off to save their season. If they can pull one of those off in Vegas, they'll be right there on Selection Sunday.

First Four Out: Pittsburgh

Pitt has been playing some good basketball lately, with their only two losses in the past month coming to Wake Forest and Clemson, both of whom are in our projected field. Their dilemma is that they are trying to make up for some errant losses earlier in the season as well as a non-conference strength of schedule that ranks 344th in the country out of 362 teams. The selection committee will feel zero pity for the Panthers based on that ranking alone, but a fourth Quad 1 victory in the ACC Tournament could make things interesting.

First Four Out: Drake

Drake surprisingly has a 3-1 record in the first quadrant with just a pair of losses in Quads 3 and 4. It's a relatively clean resumé that's capped off with a 6-5 road record and metrics hovering around the 50s. If the Bulldogs can string together a few dominant performances to close out the season and throughout the Missouri Valley Tournament, they could climb into the 40s in the NET and see some consideration should they fall in the MVC Championship game.

Next Four Out: Wake Forest

Previously our last team into the field, Wake Forest has shattered their hopes of receiving an at-large bid this season with a stunning home loss to Georgia Tech. After battling back from down 22 with a Hunter Sallis go-ahead jumper with 18 seconds left, a Baye Ndongo game-winner bucket erased all of the effort to close out proceedings in Winston-Salem. A home win over Clemson on Saturday would put help as a borderline Quad 1 win, but they'd still likely have work to do in the ACC Tournament next week.

Next Four Out: Texas A&M

This is a precautionary measure because A&M could really throw a wrench into things with a strong showing at the SEC Tournament, potentially giving them seven Quad 1 wins. Their four Quad 3 losses are the obvious wart on their team sheet, but it'd be difficult for the committee to leave them out with seven Quad 1 wins, or perhaps eight, if they picked up another in the SEC Tournament. The path is there for the Aggies, but they've shown little in recent weeks for us to believe they're up for the task.

Next Four Out: Princeton

Since suffering back-to-back defeats to Yale and Cornell last month, the Tigers have ripped off six straight victories to play their way back onto the bubble. While Princeton lacks any Quad 1 result with a 0-0 record, their average results-based metrics ranking of 41 is simply too strong to ignore. They don't possess a bad loss on their resume, and that's a rarity when you get this low in the NET rankings.

The key strength of their case? An impressive 10-3 record in true road games. There's no chance of a Quad 1 opportunity popping up for Princeton, even down in Manhattan for the Ivy League Tournament. Still, they'll at least be in consideration on Selection Sunday if they narrowly fell to Yale in the championship game.

Next Four Out: Ole Miss

It's been nothing short of an epic collapse in Oxford this season. Losers of eight of their previous ten, the Rebels have left themselves with plenty of work to do in the SEC Tournament to get back into the field. Should Ole Miss fall short of a spot in the NCAA Tournament this season, it'll be Chris Beard's first season without an invitation to the Big Dance since 2017, his first season in Lubbock with Texas Tech.