NCAAF · 1 year ago

10 Overreactions: College Football’s Chaotic, Upset-Filled Week 6

Grant White

Host · Writer

The Louisville Cardinals Were Never a Top 25 Team
The Louisville Cardinals dropped to 3-2 following their loss to the SMU Mustangs in Week 6. In doing so, they proved that they were never deserving of a spot in the Top 25 rankings.

Louisville has been outclassed in two straight games but was humbled by the Mustangs at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. On Saturday afternoon, the hosts gave up 34 points on 481 yards, having no answer for whatever SMU was throwing their way.

Good teams win and great teams cover. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they can't claim distinction to either.
Alabama Should Be Left Out of the CFP
The Alabama Crimson Tide will prove it's better to burn out than fade away. One week after stunning the Georgia Bulldogs, Bama was humbled by the Vanderbilt Commodores in Week 6. With the worst of their schedule ahead of them, we're betting the Tide will be sitting on the outside of the playoff picture looking in come January.

After Saturday's defeat, Alabama fell to 1-1 in SEC play, with the most challenging part of their schedule still on the horizon. From Week 8 to Week 14, the Tide have to run a gauntlet of top SEC teams. They face the Tennessee Volunteers, Missouri Tigers, LSU Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners, and Auburn Tigers, with three of those games coming on the road. That leaves them no margin for error as they race toward the end of the season.

All that is without even considering the growing discord in Alabama's camp. Some serious fractures were forming at the end of Week 6's loss and Bama missing the playoffs is the only outcome we can forecast.

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2 Group of 5 Teams Belong in the CFP
Parity is the name of the game in 2024. No team is a clearcut favorite in the Power 4 conferences and that's reflected in the betting prices as we approach the halfway point of the season. However, there are some emerging powers in the Group of 5 that warrant inclusion in the expanded College Football Playoff field.

Look no further than the Boise State Broncos' close call with the Oregon Ducks in Eugene back in Week 2 as validation for such. Boise State nearly walked away victorious as +17.5 underdogs against the now third-ranked Ducks.

The Army Black Knights, Navy Midshipmen, and Liberty Flames remain undefeated, and a backlog of 4-1 teams could carry their momentum toward the end of the season. Rather than giving the playoff spots to two or three-loss teams, it's worth including two Group of 5 powers in the 12-team field.

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The National Champion Will Come From the Big Ten
The once-mighty SEC doesn't appear as impenetrable as it has in years past. Likewise, the ACC and Big 12 feature a handful of teams with a legitimate chance of claiming conference championships and/or playoff berths. We're predicting the Big Ten reigns supreme in this year's CFP, claiming the National Championship.

Heading into Week 7, the Big Ten features three teams in the top five and six teams nationally ranked. More importantly, most of those teams continue to predicate their success on stout defensive efforts, without compromising offensive effectiveness. That's a recipe for success come playoff time, and we expect the Big Ten to put the country on notice.

If your book is hanging odds on the winning conference for the National Championship, the Big Ten is worth an investment.

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Conference Play Needs to be Expanded
There has been no shortage of drama in conference play this season, and that was plainly evident in Week 6. With that, there's an argument to be made that the conference schedules need to expand.

No more running the score up against inferior opponents for the first three or four weeks of the season. Teams should play at least 12 games versus intra-conference foes to ensure we get the most excitement from the college football season.
Home Field is Worth More Than 3.5 Points
Generally, the consensus is that home-field advantage is worth about 3.5 points on the betting line. However, Week 6's outcomes support that number should be at least double that.

The Vanderbilt Commodores, Arkansas Razorbacks, Minnesota Golden Gophers, and UL-Monroe Warhawks all won outright as double-digit home dogs. Additionally, the Washington Huskies, Marshall Thundering Herd, Arkansas State Red Wolves, and Florida Gators all easily took care of business in near pick'ems.

The lesson most people should take from these results is that you can't underestimate the value of a raucous home crowd.
Jam Miller Shouldn't Enter the NFL Draft
Alabama has a proven track record of producing top-end NFL talent, particularly at the running back position. Five current NFLers (Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Robinson Jr., Josh Jacobs, and Najee Harris) donned the Crimson red. Still, Jam Miller should consider returning for his senior season before trying to make the jump to the pro ranks.

Miller has had an underwhelming junior season. The Texas native hasn't eclipsed 71 yards in any of his past three outings, totaling 124 across the modest sample. Nearly all of his 45 yards against Vanderbilt came on one 32-yard jaunt, meaning he barely averaged 3.3 yards per carry on the other four touches.

Based on his most recent starts, Miller doesn't possess the pedigree to break through in the NFL next year.
It's Time for Mike Gundy to Retire
Air raid no more. The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been grounded.

Oklahoma State was corraled for 227 yards against the West Virginia Mountaineers on Saturday, with 191 of those coming via the passing game. At this point, Gundy's ineffective game-planning limits the outlook for his players with professional aspirations.

Ollie Gordon has seen his NFL Draft stock fall and Brennan Presley has looked undeserving of a first-round pick over the past few weeks.

It's time for Gundy to acknowledge that he's being out-coached and move on.
The USC Trojans & UCLA Bruins Shouldn't Have Left the Pac-12
No team is regretting the dissolution of the Pac-12 more than the USC Trojans or UCLA Bruins.

The once-proud Trojans have appeared outmatched in Big Ten play, failing to account for the improved defenses they are facing in 2024. Likewise, UCLA has appeared completely lost in all of its outings, robbing the Bruins of what little recruiting power they had left.

The Trojans and Bruins have no choice but to adapt. But as is the case with any rebuild, it takes time and energy that most coaches aren't afforded. After Week 6, both programs are probably wishing that they could go back to the ways of the old Pac-12.
The Penn State Nittany Lions Are the Next Top 10 Team to Fall
The Penn State Nittany Lions' rise up the rankings has more to do with the teams ahead of them falling than their own success. Consequently, they're the next program to drop out of the Top 10.

Penn State has gotten off to a perfect start, but they've looked unimpressive in doing so. The Nittany Lions mustered 322 yards of total offense against an inferior UCLA Bruins defense that gives up an average of 383.4. Moreover, their defense has yet to be tested by any of the top teams in the country.

The USC Trojans, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Washington Huskies await the Nittany Lions. Given their underwhelming offense, we suspect that at least one of those will result in a loss and a tumble out of the top 10.
The Louisville Cardinals Were Never a Top 25 Team
The Louisville Cardinals dropped to 3-2 following their loss to the SMU Mustangs in Week 6. In doing so, they proved that they were never deserving of a spot in the Top 25 rankings.

Louisville has been outclassed in two straight games but was humbled by the Mustangs at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. On Saturday afternoon, the hosts gave up 34 points on 481 yards, having no answer for whatever SMU was throwing their way.

Good teams win and great teams cover. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they can't claim distinction to either.
Alabama Should Be Left Out of the CFP
The Alabama Crimson Tide will prove it's better to burn out than fade away. One week after stunning the Georgia Bulldogs, Bama was humbled by the Vanderbilt Commodores in Week 6. With the worst of their schedule ahead of them, we're betting the Tide will be sitting on the outside of the playoff picture looking in come January.

After Saturday's defeat, Alabama fell to 1-1 in SEC play, with the most challenging part of their schedule still on the horizon. From Week 8 to Week 14, the Tide have to run a gauntlet of top SEC teams. They face the Tennessee Volunteers, Missouri Tigers, LSU Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners, and Auburn Tigers, with three of those games coming on the road. That leaves them no margin for error as they race toward the end of the season.

All that is without even considering the growing discord in Alabama's camp. Some serious fractures were forming at the end of Week 6's loss and Bama missing the playoffs is the only outcome we can forecast.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

10 Overreactions: College Football’s Chaotic, Upset-Filled Week 6

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