10 Potential Upsets for College Football Week 11
TJ Inman
Host · Writer
College football is in full swing as we enter the final fourth of the season! Week 11 presents a strong slate as we fully enter November. There are so many games that could offer incredible drama this week. Which teams are potentially on upset watch?
1. Tulane at Memphis (-6.5) – Friday at 9:00
The Memphis Tigers are currently the favorite to land the Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff. That’s a great spot to be in November, but it has been a dangerous mantle to hold thus far, and Friday represents another major hurdle as the Tulane Green Wave comes to town. Tulane suffered a significant setback last week, getting waxed at UTSA, but the Roadrunners are very good at the Alamodome, and the Green Wave have a strong coaching staff that should be able to get the team to respond after a big loss. For reference, the only previous loss for Tulane this season was followed immediately by three straight victories. Memphis will need to be alert and play well to stay in the driver’s seat in the American Athletic Conference.
2. Georgia (-7.5) at Mississippi State – Noon
The Mississippi State Bulldogs were flirting with it for weeks, but they finally broke through last Saturday. Jeff Lebby’s team won an SEC game. It was close, but they found a way to win the game (38-35 over Arkansas). Mississippi State now returns home to play a Georgia team that has flirted with disaster but routinely found ways to win, including last week against the Florida Gators. Starkville will be fired up, and I think there’s a real chance that Georgia is overlooking this game. Do you know who UGA has next week? The Texas Longhorns in Athens. If they are not paying full attention to the Mississippi State Bulldogs, those cowbells will be clanging, and the maroon and white Bulldogs will earn a signature victory. UGA does not rush the passer well, and Jeff Lebby is a well-respected offensive mind who could take advantage of that.
3. BYU at Texas Tech (-10.5) – Noon
The BYU Cougars have been doubted all season, but they keep on winning. On Saturday, they face their toughest test as they clash with Texas Tech in Lubbock. This is probably the “Game of the Year” in the Big 12, and it will go a very long way towards determining what the matchup is for the Big 12 Championship Game. The BYU Cougars are allowing only 19.4 points per game, and I trust head coach Kalani Sitake to drag this game down into the mud and make it close. The Cougars are 11.5-point underdogs, but they’ll continue to prove the doubters wrong and find a way to grab a close win in a game that is much lower scoring than expected. Freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has not been phased by anything this season, and BYU is equipped to slow the Red Raiders’ rushing attack.
4. SMU (-11.5) at Boston College – Noon
The SMU Mustangs are an extremely interesting team. Rhett Lashlee’s squad is 4-1 in the ACC and right in the thick of the race for a spot in the ACC Championship Game for a second-straight season, but they have two out-of-conference defeats and have struggled to find consistency. Losses to Baylor, SMU, and Wake Forest are juxtaposed by blowout wins over Syracuse and Stanford. They won at Clemson, but then scored only 12 points in a sloppy game in Winston-Salem. Last week, the Mustangs got the benefit of some boneheaded penalties and turnovers by Miami and beat the Hurricanes in overtime. They now have to go on the road to a moribund Boston College team and find a way to bring their own energy. BC battled against Notre Dame last week, and if SMU messes around and turns it over, the Eagles could stick around.
5. Texas A&M (-6.5) at Missouri – 3:30
The Texas A&M Aggies have been fantastic this season, combining a top-notch defensive line with an offense that has as much speed, athleticism, and explosiveness as any in the country. Missouri is coming off a bye week, head coach Eli Drinkwitz is linked to the Penn State, Auburn, LSU, and Florida jobs, and seems likely to leave the Tigers or at least get a giant raise to stay. They will be starting a freshman quarterback against Mike Elko’s great defensive line and have to find a way to score enough points to keep pace with a terrific offense. Why is the line only 6.5 points? That short line raises some real alarm bells and should make Aggie fans a bit nervous.
6. Oregon (-6) at Iowa – 3:30
The Iowa Hawkeyes should be ranked, but they still find themselves out of the AP Top 25 and generally not viewed as a College Football Playoff contender. That is going to change this Saturday as they topple the Oregon Ducks in Kinnick Stadium. The Hawkeyes are 6-2 with the lone losses coming in close fashion to the Indiana Hoosiers at home and at Iowa State early in the season. The Hawkeyes blasted Wisconsin 37-0, beat Penn State 25-24, and then manhandled Minnesota 41-3 last weekend. Oregon has looked vulnerable at times this season, and the Hawkeyes know precisely how to grind a game against a high-powered offense that prefers to play at a quick pace to a snail’s pace. They’ll limit possessions, try to create a couple of turnovers and a special teams play in their advantage, and be right there to take the game in the fourth quarter.
7. Auburn at Vanderbilt (-6.5) – 4:00
The Auburn Tigers have plenty of talent. Will that start to shine after head coach Hugh Freeze was fired following the loss to Kentucky? DJ Durkin is in as the interim head coach, and he certainly seems to have the defensive players’ respect. Vanderbilt is a little bit beat up after their loss to Texas last weekend. The Tigers will open things up a bit on offense and find a way to pull off the upset in Nashville using the familiar coaching change bump we’ve seen so many times in sports.
8. Stanford at North Carolina (-7.5) – 4:30
North Carolina has clearly improved over the past few weeks, and Bill Belichick is beginning to get his team to execute his defensive vision. However, just because the Tar Heels beat Syracuse 27-10 does not instantly make them a team you should trust as a favorite. Stanford scored 20 points on the red-hot Pittsburgh Panthers, and they are only a couple of weeks removed from stunning Florida State. The Cardinal does not have a ton of talent, but they do play hard, and North Carolina is very capable of regressing quickly after finding some success.
9. Wake Forest at Virginia (-6.5) – 7:00
The Virginia Cavaliers are 8-1 and 5-0 in the ACC, but there is no way this is the 12th-best team in the country, and their one loss was to North Carolina State (which counted as a non-conference game). The Cavaliers have wins by eight points, three points, two points, one point, and ten points. Wake Forest is trying to bounce back from a 42-7 loss against Florida State in a game where everything went wrong. Before that, the Demon Deacons were playing really well with wins over SMU, Oregon State, Virginia Tech, and a close loss to Georgia Tech that should have been a win if not for a brutal missed call. The Demon Deacons have a stout defense and play a deliberate pace that will cause some problems for the Cavaliers. The line on this game is only 6.5 points, which sets off alarm bells.
10. LSU at Alabama (-9.5) – 7:30
The annual battle between LSU and Alabama is routinely one of the most anticipated games in the country. Alabama has done its part and is ranked fourth with a clear path to the SEC Championship Game. The same cannot be said for the LSU Tigers. Brian Kelly was fired before the bye week, as the Tigers fell to 2-3 in the SEC. The Tigers have shown absolutely nothing on offense that makes me think they can hang with Ty Simpson and the Crimson Tide in a night game at Alabama. On top of that, the Crimson Tide have been the best home team in college football recently, going 31-1 at Bryant-Denny Stadium over the past 32 games. That said, maybe Garrett Nussmeier got healthy during the bye week, and perhaps the Tigers will throw some new wrinkles at Alabama and catch them off guard. There is still plenty of talent on this LSU roster, and they could be capable of surprising everyone under an interim coach who really cares about LSU and the state of Louisiana.
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