NCAAF · 1 year ago

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green 68 Ventures Bowl Prediction | College Football Best Bets

Grant White

Host · Writer

No team believes more in their program than the Bowling Green Falcons. Every year, they step up against some of the fiercest Power 4 teams in the country, occasionally pulling off some stunning upsets. That was the case again in 2024, as Bowling Green had back-to-back matchups against Top 25 opponents. While the Falcons didn’t pull off the unthinkable this year, they did manage to hang tough with the Penn State Nittany Lions and Texas A&M Aggies while making short work of their usual conference opponents. That elite profile carries them into what should be a one-sided matchup versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves in this year’s 68 Ventures Bowl.

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Where to Watch Arkansas State vs Bowling Green 68 Ventures Bowl

Location: Clarence T. C. Chang Athletics Complex | 68 Ventures Bowl Matchup Page
Time: Thursday, December 26 at 9 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: ESPN
Spread: Bowling Green -7.5 | Moneyline: Bowling Green -310 | Total: 52.5

Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green 68 Ventures Bowl Best Bet ATS: Bowling Green -7.5

Bowling Green’s implied superiority was reflected in its betting odds all season. The Falcons were -9.5 chalk or higher on seven occasions this season. While their well-balanced offense operated efficiently, all praise belongs to their defense for keeping them in games week after week. Bowling Green gave up 331.1 yards per game this season, ranking just behind the Alabama Crimson Tide in total defense. Predictably, that correlates with a top-end scoring defense that gave up just 20.3 points per game. They must be at their best to contain dual-threat quarterback Jaylen Raynor and the Red Wolves’ attack. Still, Arkansas State’s porous defense gives the Falcons the advantage in covering the -7.5 spread. The Red Wolves gave up the sixth-most yards in the country, translating to 32.3 points against. Their most notable flaw was their ineffective run defense, which gave up a whopping 225.8 rush yards per game. That should allow the Falcons to tap into their ground game and fly away with this one.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green 68 Ventures Bowl Best Bet Total: Over 52.5

As good as the Falcons were on the defensive side of the ball, they won’t be able to contain the Red Wolves completely. Raynor was one of the best at picking up yards in the Group of 5, throwing for 2,562 and adding 392 more on the ground. Moreover, Arkansas State features a two-headed rushing attack, with Zak Wallace and Ja’Quez Cross each running for 600+ yards. Bowling Green is most susceptible to the run, ensuring that Arkansas State’s offense puts in a good showing in the 68 Ventures Bowl. Nevertheless, the Falcons’ offense will face little resistance, ensuring this one exceeds the total.

Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green 68 Ventures Bowl Best Player Props

Rahkeem Smith Any Time Touchdown Scorer +410

There are some chalky wagering options atop the Any Time Touchdown Scorer list. All three Bowling Green running backs, including Jamal Johnson, who only had 23 carries in the year, are priced at -150 or higher to find the end zone. However, we’re highlighting Rahkeem Smith as the top value on the board. The Falcons wide receiver is priced at a desirable +410 to score against Arkansas State. Smith presents as a scoring threat on the ground and through the air, adding to his implied value. The junior had 18 carries this season, churning out 119 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. That’s in addition to the 18 catches, 252 yards, and two scores he added via the passing game. Moreover, four of his five touchdowns came in his last five games. Altogether, Smith represents the top value in scoring against the Red Wolves.

Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green 68 Ventures Bowl Opt-Outs

Arkansas State: Carter Salzman, WR, Arkansas State (transfer portal); Brook Honore, P, Arkansas State (transfer portal); Brian Alston, DL, Arkansas State (transfer portal); Jourdyn Burruss, LB, (transfer portal); Dontay Joyner, S, (transfer portal); Timmy McClain, QB, (transfer portal); Reginald Harden Jr., WR, Arkansas State (transfer portal); Miller McCrumby, TE, Arkansas State (transfer portal)

Bowling Green: Chris Edmonds, RB (transfer portal); Alijah Williams, EDGE (transfer portal); Edward Rhambo, CB, Bowling Green (transfer portal); Jalen Burton, CB, transfer portal); Jaylon Tillman, WR (transfer portal)