Big 12 Best Bets: Week 2 of the 2024 College Football Season

There’s no turning back now. The warm-up games are behind us, and Big 12 teams are ratcheting up the intensity in Week 2 of the college football season. Most programs have marquee matchups this week, emphasizing the need to reach peak efficiency before heading into conference play. With that, there are several enticing entry points for bettors looking to capitalize on perceived market imbalance following the first week of action. 

We’ve identified our three favorite plays from this week’s Big 12 schedule.

Big 12 Play (1 Unit)

#17 Kansas State Wildcats vs. Tulane Green Wave

Spread: Wildcats -9.5 (-118) | Green Wave +9.5 (-104)
Moneyline: Wildcats -375 | Green Wave +290
Total: OVER 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)

The Tulane Green Wave made a big splash in Week 1, easily covering the -28.5 spread against FCS foes, the Southeastern Louisiana Lions. Next up is a marquee showdown versus the 17th-ranked Kansas State Wildcats. The betting market has taken a firm position on the Wildcats, but that could be misplaced confidence. 

Tulane’s offense is underappreciated, and its defense doesn’t get the credit they deserve. Boasting one of the top running backs in the country, Makhi Hughes will have ample opportunity to run rampant in Week 2. The sophomore toted the ball 14 times for 59 yards in Week 1, foreshadowing what to expect when the starters are on the field for the full 60 minutes. Likewise, freshman quarterback Darian Mensah completed 10-of-12 passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns before being removed once the win was secured. His preferred target, Mario Williams, was equally efficient, hauling in four of five targets for 124 yards before leaving with the rest of the starters. That three-prong approach will serve the Green Wave well for the rest of the season, especially with the home crowd at their back for Saturday’s tilt versus K-State. 

Arguably, Tulane’s most prominent strength is its senior-laden defense. The Green Wave finished last season with the second-ranked scoring defense in the AAC, giving up just 18.9 points per game. We saw how effective they could be in Week 1, limiting the Lions to 201 total yards while keeping them off the scoreboard.

The Wildcats were equally impressive on both sides of the ball in Week 1, but that doesn’t equate to a -9.5 point advantage on the road. Kansas State went a forgettable 1-3-1 against the spread on the road last year, underscoring their inability to generate meaningful gains in hostile territory. 

Bettors have been quick to dismiss the Green Wave’s chances against the Wildcats, but we’re not underestimating Tulane at home. Kansas State has a crucial showdown versus the Arizona Wildcats next week, setting up Week 2’s tilt against Tulane as a classic look-ahead spot. While K-State will inevitably leave with the win, we don’t think they have the fight to cover -9.5 on the road.

Recommended Play: Tulane +9.5

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Bigger 12 Play (2 Units)

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

Spread: Bulldogs +5.5 (-108) | Sun Devils -5.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Bulldogs +176 | Sun Devils -215
Total: OVER 58.5 (-110) | Under 58.5 (-110)

Heading into the 2024 season, the Arizona State Sun Devils were expected to be a bottom-feeding team in the Big 12. Distant +8000 longshots in conference futures betting, ASU was an afterthought in an expanded conference field. But last week’s decisive 48-7 victory over the Wyoming Cowboys could be a sign of things to come for the Sun Devils as they set out in their first year as a Big 12 member. They’ll have the opportunity to extend their hot start in Saturday’s showdown versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs. 

Arizona State easily dispatched the Cowboys in Week 1. They outgained their opponents by a 499-118 margin, outclassing Wyoming on both sides of the football. Most impressively, the Sun Devils allowed a 50.0% completion rating, giving up 76 yards via the air. That’s going to cause a plethora of issues for Blake Shapen and a rebuilt Mississippi State offense. 

The Bulldogs may have succeeded against an FCS opponent in Week 1, but they’re projected to get eviscerated the rest of the way. Mississippi State has the longest odds in the SEC, facing a +50000 climb to the top of the conference. Those concerns were validated in Week 1’s win, in which they gave up 295 yards to the Eastern Kentucky Colonels at home. 

Arizona State was humming on offense last week, churning out 241 yards on the ground and 258 more via the aerial assault. Those benchmarks could easily be surpassed against a Mississippi State side that was burned for 126 rushing yards against an FCS team in Week 1. Combined with their top-end passing attack, that should be enough to help the Sun Devils cover the number for the second straight week.

Recommended Play: Sun Devils -5.5 -112

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Biggest 12 Play (3 Units)

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Washington State Cougars

Spread: Red Raiders +1.5 (-104) | Cougars -1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Red Raiders +105 | Cougars -126
Total: OVER 65.5 (-114) | Under 65.5 (-106)

Defense will be in short supply when the Washington State Cougars host the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday night. Both teams employ a loose defensive standard, leading to a shootout at Martin Stadium.

Last week’s results validate our high-scoring position. Despite entering the contest as -32.5 chalk, the Red Raiders barely squeaked past the Abilene Christian Wildcats. Texas Tech scored 52 points on 539 yards, escaping with an overtime win after a failed two-point conversion attempt by the Wildcats. Still, they gave up 615 total yards in the victory, highlighting the defensive concerns plaguing this program for years. 

Washington State enters Week 2’s non-conference game in a similar position. The Cougars bested the Portland State Vikings by a 70-30 margin despite giving up 449 yards against the FCS competition. Still, they torched the Vikings for 637 yards of total offense, with 413 coming via the passing attack. 

The Red Raiders and Cougars are defensive liabilities, albeit with the offensive firepower to offset those shortcomings. That’s a recipe for a high-scoring affair in a contest that should easily surpass the 65.5 total. 

Recommended Play: Over 65.5

Record: 3-0-0 ($624)

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