Big Ten Week 13 Expert Picks and Best Bets For Saturday’s Action
Danny Mogollon
Host · Writer
We have just two weeks left of the college football regular season remaining, with 16 of 18 Big Ten teams in action, as the two schools from the Hoosier State (Indiana and Purdue) take the weekend off. Week 13 features only one ranked vs. ranked matchup, but only two games have a spread bigger than two touchdowns, so there could be some interesting results on this packed Saturday.
Northwestern can lock up a bowl bid in Wrigley Field. Penn State and Maryland need wins to keep their bowl hopes alive. As do No. 18 Michigan and No. 15 USC to stay in the College Football Playoff race. While the Wolverines might be looking ahead to No. 1 Ohio State next Saturday, the Trojans can significantly increase their CFP odds if they knock off No. 7 Oregon in Eugene.
Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!
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Last Week: 3-4 (-1/2 UNIT) | Overall: 41-36 (+3.5 UNITS)
Not So B1G Bets: 28-23 (+2.5 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 11-12 (-1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 1-1 (EVEN) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)
ATS Bets: 20-21 (-1/2 UNIT) | Team Totals: 17-9 (+6 UNITS) | Game Totals: 4-6 (-2 UNITS)
Big Ten Week 13 College Football Picks
NOT SO B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 2-3 | Season: 28-23 (+2.5 UNITS)
NORTHWESTERN-Minnesota 40.5 (@BetMGM)
Time: 12:00 PM | TV: BTN
Northwestern’s team total is 21.5. They average 18.9 PPG in Big Ten action with a season-high of 22 points in conference play. At home, that number is worse: 18 PPG in four Big Ten home games, including 19 against Purdue (fewest points allowed in nine P4 games) and 17 against UCLA (second-fewest allowed this season).
Would you bet on the Wildcats scoring more than 21.5?
Minnesota’s team total is 17.5. They average 17.2 PPG in Big Ten action. On the road, that number is worse: 8.25 PPG in four Power Four road games, including 14 against Cal (fewest points allowed in nine FCS games).
Would you bet on the Gophers scoring more than 21.5?
Other than maybe Northwestern breaking some tackles on the ground against Minnesota, both defenses have the edge in this matchup. Neither offense is explosive; they’d both rather run than throw, and move at a turtle’s pace.
What else do you need to know? Take the under.
MARYLAND UNDER 15.5 (-106 @FanDuel)
Time: 4:00 PM | TV: BTN
Judging by most metrics, Michigan should win this comfortably. However, I cannot trust this program on the road. Especially laying double digits. At the same time, we’ve been fading Maryland of late. So what to do?
Well, if the Wolverines do cover, it’s more likely because of their defense. Even if they don’t cover, their defense could do its job. It’s not a vintage elite unit they’ve fielded in recent seasons, but they are darn good: 12th in points per game, 13th in yards per play, 19th in points per drive, and 12th in EPA. It’s a very effective unit that has exposed no true weakness to attack.
It’s hard to imagine a Maryland rushing game that’s 124th in success rate, 118th in EPA per rush, 128th in yards before contact, and 122nd in yards after contact gaining much traction. The Wolverines rotate ten trenchmen who have all had at least a dozen tackles this season. Behind them is a stout linebacking corps led by Ernest Hausmann (68 tackles) and bolstered by the return of Jimmy Rolder (54 tackles) last week.
The Terps have done a solid job protecting their QB, though they haven’t done much through the air. The metrics passing aren’t much better: 108th in success rate, 100th in EPA per rush, and 88th in yards after the catch.
Michigan is tenth in EPA per dropback and has improved as the secondary has gotten healthier, along with the emergence of DE Derrick Moore off the edge. As a team, they’re third nationally in pressure rate, and Moore has a team-high 8.5 sacks (second in the B1G), all coming in conference play (first), including six in the past four games.
Since DC Wink Martindale has calmed down with their blitzing, the defense has been even better. In the past four games, they’ve allowed seven points to Washington, 20 to Michigan State (including a TD with 7 seconds left), 16 to Purdue, and 22 to Northwestern (13 points off turnover, including a six-yard TD drive). Anything can happen, but that’s 16.3 PPG, which easily could be (should be) 12 PPG.
Maryland’s offense is 99th in points per game, 99th in yards per play, 120th in points per drive, 121st in success rate, and 109th in EPA. They’re also trending in the wrong direction, as their scoring has dropped to 13.3 PPG over the past four games, including games against UCLA (123rd in scoring defense), Rutgers (107th), and Illinois (68th).
Usc +10.5 OREGON (@ESPNBET)
Time: 3:30 PM | TV: CBS
We haven’t had many opportunities to face USC on the road, but when they’ve come, they’ve been fruitful. Here’s the thing— Lincoln Riley’s teams have been favored in 15 of 19 road games since 2022, including every Big Ten road game they’ve played over the past two seasons. They are 3-12 ATS as the road favorite. But as the road underdog, the Trojans are 3-1 with covers at No. 20 Utah, at No. 6 Oregon, and at No. 13 Notre Dame, the latter coming this season (closing line was 10.5-11). Overall, the Men of Troy are 7-3 ATS under Riley as the underdog.
Would I be on USC getting +6.5, +7, or even +7.5? Probably not. This spread is too high for teams that aren’t that far apart. The Ducks are better. Maybe even a touchdown better. But 10.5 points better? I’m shaking my head.
You want advanced metrics?
Oregon is sixth in net points per drive, fifth in EPA margin, sixth in quality drive ratio, fifth in offensive success rate, and 16th in defensive success rate. The Trojans are eighth in net points per drive, ninth in EPA margin, 20th in quality drive ratio, seventh in offensive success rate, and 87th in defensive success rate.
USC’s defense is still behind where the Ducks are—it takes longer to rebuild a defense—but the offense feels pretty caught up.
How about the eye test? We watched both these teams play Iowa over the past two weeks in very Hawkeye-esque conditions. Did you see a big difference?
It’s also very possible that the 2025 Oregon team is a bully. They’ve won seven games by at least two touchdowns this season. The best opponent in those wins? I’ll let you pick…either 6-4 Minnesota or 5-5 Northwestern.
Against ranked teams this season, the Ducks are 1-2 ATS with their lone cover coming against No. 3 Penn State (won in OT), who, you might have noticed, is no longer ranked (and won their first B1G game last week). They beat Iowa, also no longer ranked, 18-16, with their lone loss coming at home as a touchdown favorite over Indiana.
We aren’t predicting another outright upset, but there’s reason to believe USC can’t hang and keep the deficit to ten or less.
The Trojans have a balanced offense—one of three teams (including Navy) that’s in the top ten in yards per rush and yards per attempt. The offensive line is better and deeper than expected. And no one doubts USC has the skill position talent. It all starts with Jayden Maiava, whose mobility could be an issue for Oregon’s defense. WR1 Makai Lemon is a stud and a likely first-round pick. WR2 Ja’Kobi Lane probably has two or three of the top ten catches this season. RB King Miller has gone for 70-plus yards in his past five, including over 125 three times. Tight ends Lake McRee and Walker Lyons can come up with a big third-down conversion as soon as you forget about them.
B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 1-1 | Season: 11-12 (-1 UNIT)
Michigan State UNDER 13.5 (-125 @DraftKings)
Time: 3:30 PM | TV: FS1
I’m not ready to lay 16.5 with Iowa, but I am more than happy to back their defense on Saturday, as they look to bounce back from losses against ranked opponents. The Hawkeyes allow 14.9 PPG (ninth) and just 4.43 yards per play (ninth). The veteran defensive line excels at disrupting yards before contact, and they will dominate the battle in the trenches against Michigan State.
Phil Parker’s unit is even tougher to throw on. They’re ranked second in yards after the catch, seventh in EPA/dropback, and 26th in dropback success rate. Overall, the defense is fifth in EPA and 31st in defensive success rate. After facing Oregon and USC the past two weeks, Iowa gets to face a Michigan State offense that is 94th in points per drive, 96th in yards per play, 94th in success rate, and 78th in EPA.
They do nothing well, starting with an offensive line that doesn’t create many yards for the running backs or protect their quarterback. MSU has allowed 81 (!) tackles for loss this season. That’s 134th in the country and 23 more than the next-worst B1G team (Rutgers with 58).
The QB position has also been a problem in East Lansing, and MSU turned to redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic in their past two games. After a strong showing at Minnesota, he threw for just 128 yards and 4.7 YPA against Penn State. Milivojevic took several big hits in the loss and appeared banged up. He was sacked five times by the Nittany Lions, upping his two-game total to a whopping 12.
Could they turn back to Aidan Chiles? Chiles was listed as out on last week’s availability report, and there was a reason he was benched in the first place—his October numbers (57.4 completion percentage, 5.2 YPA, 1 INT-2 INTs) were atrocious. If neither can go, Jonathan Smith will be forced to turn to a quarterback who has yet to throw a pass in college.
The Spartans deliver few quality drives and don’t put up much of a fight on third- and fourth-down. As a bonus, Michigan State is also terrible at stopping the run, which should allow the Hawkeyes to play a ball-control offense and dominate time of possession in Kinnick.
This will be the first Iowa game in a couple of weeks without rain, but it will be windy (10+ MHP).
WISCONSIN UNDER 16.5 (-118 @BetMGM)
Time: 7:30 PM | TV: BTN
I thought about laying the points with Illinois, but Wisconsin has shown some life the past few weeks, especially on defense. They have talent there and play hard. However, the offense is still incredibly inept for an FCS team.
Looking at key metrics like points per drive, success rate (rushing, passing, and 3rd/4th down), EPA (rushing, passing, and early downs), and quality drive ratio, the Badgers are outside the top 100 (!) in all eight! The same goes for their yards before and after contact, and missed tackle rate—also, their pressure rate and yards after the catch.
They’ve handed over the reins to true freshman Carter Smith, who is clearly limited. He’s completed 44.4 percent of his 27 passes for 3.9 YPA and has taken four sacks. The offense line is a sieve, and he lacks a running game to lean on. Smith is mobile, but the Illini are pretty good at defending running QBs and top 10 nationally in yards after contact.
It’s not even that they do nothing well on offense. They do everything poorly.
In Big Ten play, Wisky averages 6.7 PPG. Even during their three-game cover streak, they have scored a total of 27 points (9 PPG). The last time they beat this number? Week 2 against Middle Tennessee State.
The Illini’s defense is also trending in the right direction. After a five-game stretch that included Indiana, USC, Ohio State, and Washington, Illinois has held Rutgers (13) and Maryland (6) to fewer than two touchdowns in its past two games.
It’s going to be a windy day in Camp Randell, potentially low scoring all around, certainly when the Badgers have the ball.
WASHINGTON OVER 30.5 (-130 @DraftKings)
Time: 10:30 PM | TV: NBC
Finally on over!
Even without WR1 Denzel Boston and RB1 Jonah Coleman, Washington found the end zone seven times against Purdue. We told you to expect Adam Mohammed (three rushing TDs), TE Decker DeGraaf (5 receptions, 91 yards), and Dezmen Roebuck (TD reception) to step up. But coach Jedd Fisch had even more up his sleeve, adding to his team’s seemingly endless depth at the skill positions. Redshirt freshman RB Jordan Washington rushed for a game-high 108 yards on five carries, including a 68-yard scoring scamper, and sophomore Audric Harris went for 90 yards and a TD in two receptions, more than tripling his career total of 27 yards.
We also liked how the offensive line performed despite some shuffling, as they worked in their top recruit of the 2025 class, 330-pounder Champ Taulealea, at guard, while potential freshman All-American John Mills shifted outside to right tackle.
Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. really struggled in his past two road outings, but let’s consider that one was at Michigan, one of the better defenses in the country, the second was at Wisconsin in a cold, rainy, windy day in Madison (we were on the under), he threw for 298 yards and four touchdowns on 19 attempts in a road game at Washington State, and UCLA’s defense is among the worst in the Big Ten.
The Bruins are ranked 133rd in points per drive, 134th in defensive success rate, and 99th in defensive EPA. They are outside the top 100 in yards per play (103rd), rush success rate (136th), EPA (103), dropback success rate (126th), EPA (108th), quality drive rate (118th), early downs EPA (127th), and 3rd/4th down success rate (136th).
UW is balanced and efficient on offense, ranked ninth in points per drive, third in success rate, and 15th in EPA. They are in the top 20 in yards per play (20th), rush success rate (13th), dropback success rate (4th), EPA (12th), quality drive rate (7th), early downs EPA (12th), and 3rd/4th down success rate (4th).
There are endless options for Washington, but not many answers for UCLA to counter.
The open field is where the Huskies will do the most damage. Behind Williams, UW’s QB-designed runs are 32nd in EPA and 27th in scramble EPA. The Bruins rank 102nd in QB-designed runs EPA and 123rd in scramble EPA, as they’ve struggled to slow down mobile quarterbacks. Considering Washington is third in scramble rate, how Williams uses his legs will make a significant impact on Saturday night. Then there’s the ability of UW’s pass catchers, second nationally in yards after the catch, which attacks another UCLA weakness (89th).
Points should be aplenty, as the Huskies average 34.3 PPG, a number they’ve topped six times in ten games, and a number the Bruins have allowed more than five times. Washington has faced four defenses outside the top 60 in points allowed, and in those games, they’ve scored at least 38 points every time for an average of 41.8 PPG.
UCLA (123rd in points against) has played three offenses below the top 90 in scoring. Against the other seven opponents (61st or better), the Bruins have allowed at least 28 points (to Nebraska with a true freshman QB making his first start) for an average of 39.6 PPG.
Fish, Williams, and company pour it on
B1GGER BET (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 1-1 (EVEN)
Washington -10.5 UCLA (@DraftKings)
Time: 10:30 PM | TV: NBC
With the status of Boston and Coleman uncertain going into last week’s game against Purdue, we downgraded our Washington pick from a B1GGER (maybe B1GGEST) Bet to just a B1G Bet. Turns out we were overly cautious, as the offense put up 49 points in their 36-point win over the Boilermakers.
We’ve talked a lot this season about Washington being a different team at home versus the road. The Huskies are 1-2 and 0-3 ATS in Big Ten road games. Well, we’re throwing that out this week, as their road trip is down the Pacific Coast to LA. In UW’s only road game that didn’t leave their time zone, they smoked Washington State 59-24 in an environment that was undoubtedly more hostile than the one they’ll face in the Rose Bowl.
At UCLA, Washington faces an opponent that is far inferior and might be cooked. After their three-game winning streak, the Bruins have dropped three straight games and three straight covers. What do they have to play for? Other than upsetting USC next week?
The Huskies are having a strong second season in the Big Ten: 14th in net points/drive, 21st in EPA margin, and 38th in quality drive ratio.
The defense has also improved with an injection of youth, namely true freshman linebacker Zaydrius Rainey-Sale (6 tackles, INT vs. Purdue). This is as healthy as this unit has been this season.
Like Purdue’s last week, the Bruins rely heavily on QB scrambles for their success, and as we mentioned last week, the Huskies are among the best at defending opponent QB scrambles (fourth in scramble EPA).
They lack an elite pass rush, but Ryan Walters’s defense gets into the backfield against the run, is sound tackling, and does an excellent job limiting yards after the catch. It’s not on my card, but I’d expect them to keep UCLA below their team total of 20.5. The Bruins have bettered 23 points twice this season (Jerry Neuheisel’s first two games as OC), and have scored 14 or less five times.
It’s unclear whether Nico Iamaleava (day-to-day) will go, so if he does, he’ll be at less than 100 percent. We wouldn’t be surprised if he sits this one out with USC on deck.
This is a mismatch of programs moving in opposite directions.
B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)
None.
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