Big Ten Week 14 Expert Picks and Best Bets For Black Friday & Saturday
Danny Mogollon
Host · Writer
It’s the final weekend of the 2025 college football regular season, and every Big Ten team is in action, with seven rivalry games and several trophies on the line, none bigger than The Game, which doesn’t need a trophy.
We get two matchups on Black Friday before No. 15 Michigan hosts No. 1 Ohio State at Noon on Saturday. OSU and Indiana can clinch Big Ten Championship Game berths with wins, while Oregon and the Wolverines are still in play as potential conference champs with eyes towards College Football Playoff bids.
We have action in all nine games and 11 total bets! Ready to go out with a bang?
Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!
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Last Week: 2-5 (-1 UNIT) | Overall: 43-41 (+2.5 UNITS)
Not So B1G Bets: 28-26 (+1 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 12-14 (-2 UNITS) | B1GGER Bets: 2-1 (+1.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)
ATS Bets: 21-22 (+1/2 UNIT) | Team Totals: 18-12 (+4.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 4-7 (-2.5 UNITS)
Big Ten Week 14 College Football Picks
NOT SO B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 0-3 | Season: 28-26 (+1 UNIT)
NEBRASKA UNDER 16.5 (-110 @BetMGM)
Friday | Time: 12:00 PM | TV: CBS
We’re going to back Iowa’s defense again. They gave up 17 points to Michigan State, but that was aided by a fumble that gave the Spartans a short field. Ultimately, they forced nine MSU punts—including six three-and-outs—and intercepted a pass. Part of the problem was their offense couldn’t stay on the field, as the Hawkeyes surprisingly lost the time-of-possession battle.
Expect a strong effort from this veteran-laden defense as it plays its last game together.
The matchup in the trenches is a significant edge for Iowa, where they can clog running lanes and apply pressure on the quarterback. The trio of Aaron Graves (grad), Ethan Hurkett (grad), and Max Llewellyn (senior)—all 260-plus pounds—have combined for 86 tackles and 16 sacks.
After shredding UCLA in his first start, Nebraska’s TJ Lateef wasn’t as effective last week against a better defense (5.1 yards per attempt versus Penn State).
That’s where Phil Parker’s bend-but-don’t-break zone scheme will make things tough on the Cornhuskers. It forces opposing quarterbacks to make the right decision over and over again. With their front-facing back seven, not many defenses have been as opportunistic as Iowa at creating turnovers over the years. Moreover, they excel at limiting yards after the catch—2.31 is second nationally—a staple of Nebraska’s passing offense.
The Huskers are 83rd in rush defense success rate, 104th in defensive EPA per rush, 113th in yards allowed before contact, and 107th in yards allowed after contact. As long as the Hawkeyes can run the ball and help limit possessions, the defense will do its job.
It’s going to be cold and windy in Lincoln, which suits us just fine.
MINNESOTA +2 Wisconsin (@Fanatics)
Time: 3:30 PM | TV: FS1
For all the flak Wisconsin has taken, the Badgers are 67th in EPA margin, compared to Minnesota’s 80th ranking. These teams are pretty close, but I would still give the Gophers a slight edge, and the game is in Minnesota.
A couple of weeks ago, you would have thought the Badgers would have come into this one desperate for a rivalry victory to avoid a winless Big Ten season. However, Wisconsin earned its second-ranked win of November last week, knocking off Illinois and former head coach Bret Bielema. I’m not going to say the Badgers don’t care about capturing Paul Bunyan’s Axe, but with Luke Fickell keeping his job, and those two big home wins, which led to field storms, it’s already been an eventful, even fruitful, month for the program.
Coming off back-to-back losses, it feels like P.J. Fleck and the Gophers need this one more.
As mediocre as they’ve been, Minnesota is undefeated at home (6-0) with wins over Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, and Michigan State. While we won’t hold Wisconsin’s road record against them—considering all four of their games as the visitor were against ranked teams—it’s still a B1G road game for their true freshman quarterback, Carter Smith, who’s completed 55.3 percent of his 38 passes for 4.8 YPA and has taken a whopping nine sacks.
On the flip side, Minny’s Drake Lindsey is making his 12th start and has been more comfortable in the friendly confines: 64 percent, 7.1 YPA, 9 TDs-2 INTs (8 sacks-189 attempts).
On a neutral field, this is a coin flip. The Gophers have the edge in TCF Bank Stadium.
Penn State -13.5 RUTGERS (@FanDuel)
Time: 3:30 PM | TV: BTN
Still kicking myself for not taking Penn State last week. Considering my record betting on or against the Nittany Lions this season, I understand entirely if you don’t want to roll with me here. But hear me out.
After losing a heartbreaker in what appeared to be an upset in the making against No. 2 Indiana for their sixth-straight loss, a PSU team with national championship aspirations going into the season could have easily packed it in. But they didn’t. The Nittany Lions have beaten Michigan State 28-10 and Nebraska 37-10 in their past two games.
This veteran-heavy team didn’t claw back to 5-6 only to mail it in on Saturday in what will be the last game wearing a Penn State uniform for many of them. Also, interim head coach Terry Smith wants this job, and the team seems to like him. Expect them to play hard for their coach.
I like how their defense matches up against Rutgers’s offensive line, a group that doesn’t win much in run blocking or in pass pro. DE Dani Dennis-Sutton, who has a disappointing six sacks on the season, has produced four in the past three games. Fellow senior, DT Zane Durant, has all four of his sacks over his past five games.
Rutgers has faced five teams ranked in the top 65 of SP+ (all top 32) and lost all five games by double digits, with an average margin of 26 points! PSU is ranked 17th by SP+. Let’s take out losses to OSU and Oregon, and the Scarlet Knights have lost the other three games by 51 points (17 PPG). Outside of a quarter of football against Iowa back in September, RU has not played up to the competition this season.
Penn State OVER 34.5 (-115 @DraftKings)
The biggest reason Rutgers hasn’t been able to play up to the competition is a historically bad defense, ranked 115th or worse in net points/drive, EPA, dropback success rate, rush success rate, yards before and after contact, sack and scramble EPA, yards after the catch, and quality drive rate.
Most significantly, they’re 132nd in points per drive allowed and 136th (out of 136 teams) in yards per play, the same ranking as yards per carry allowed at 6.57 a pop, which is nearly 1.5 yards worse than UCLA (second-to-last in the B1G, 128th nationally). Georgia Southern is 135th in yards per carry allowed at 5.73. Like I said, historically bad.
Kaytron Allen has rushed for 341 yards and four touchdowns in his past two games. Allen and Nicholas Singleton have combined for 25 touchdowns in 2025. They will lean heavily on their run game, which also opens the door for explosives through the air—quality over quantity.
After getting thrown to the fire with starts against Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana, Ethan Grunkemeyer has been more effective in the past two games: 19 of 25 passing (76 percent), for 308 yards (12.32 YPA), and three TDs to no INTs.
We wouldn’t be surprised to see several seniors like Allen and Singleton skip PSU’s bowl game, so why not leave it all on the field in Piscattaway?
USC -21.5 UCLA (@BetMGM)
Time: 7:30 PM | TV: NBC
Not many teams are as good at home as USC, where they’ve won all six games this season. ATS, they are 4-2 at home and 8-2 as home favorites over the past two seasons. They play at a different level in the City of Angels.
Ranked 14th in net points/drive and 11th in EPA margin, this is very close to a playoff-caliber team. UCLA, on the other hand, is 132nd in net points/drive and 87th in EPA margin.
They are limping to the finish line. Head coach Deshaun Foster was fired three games into the season, after the Bruins had lost twice by 25-plus points. They turned things around with a three-game winning streak but have since reverted to their previous form, losing four straight games, including three by at least 34 points.
QB scrambles have been UCLA’s offense, so as long as the Trojans can keep Nico Iamaleava from running loose—if he plays, as he’s day-to-day with a neck issue—they will be in good shape, and so far this season, they have defended QB scrambles well.
I know this is a rivalry game, but I’m not sure how much fight the Bruins have left in them, while the Men of Troy should be looking to fight on, even if their playoff chances are slim to none. Lincoln Riley has preached that this team is different and will be better next season, so I expect them to want to finish strong and take that momentum into bowl practice.
USC OVER 40.5 (-115 @DraftKings)
That’s right. Not just one but two team total overs!
USC’s offense has been among the best in the nation, ranked seventh in points/drive, sixth in yards per play, sixth in EPA, and 16th in success rate. Those are the overall numbers, and the Trojans are even better in the LA Memorial Coliseum, especially in their passing offense.
Jayden Maiava is another B1G signal caller who does his best work at home: 74.5 percent, 10.7 YPA, and 14 TDs-2 INTs with only three sacks and four rushing TDs. Maiava is at his best on the move, whether picking up yards with his legs or finding his receivers streaking open downfield. Biletnikoff Award finalist Makai Lemon (78-1,124-10 TDs) and Ja’Kobi Lane (46-693-4 TDs) form one of the nation’s top duos, with freshman Tanook Hines making a statement last week with 141 yards on six catches at Oregon. Tight end Lake McRee gives them four pass catchers averaging over 14 yards per grab.
It’s one of the most balanced offenses in the country. They block well, make tacklers miss, pick up yards after contact, and after the catch.
UCLA’s defense is among the nation’s worst, ranked 133rd in points/drive, 107th in yards per play, 93rd in EPA, and 134th in success rate. Their defensive line gets pushed around and generates little to no pressure. The secondary has been a problem all season, and as a whole, running quarterbacks have given them significant problems.
Considering the Trojans are sixth in 3rd/4th down success rate, and the Bruins are 135th when it comes to stopping opponents on 3rd/4th downs, it’s hard to imagine they will force many punts. It’s a name-your-score type of game for USC’s offense.
B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 1-2 | Season: 12-14 (-2 UNITS)
INDIANA -27.5 Purdue (@ESPNBet)
Friday | Time: 7:30 PM | TV: NBC
The Old Oaken Bucket pits one of the top two Big Ten teams, maybe the best, against one of the bottom two B1G teams, perhaps the worst.
Indiana is first in EPA margin, first in quality drives, second in net points/drive, second in offensive success rate, and fifth in defensive success rate. There’s no true weakness to be found. Purdue is 83rd in EPA margin, 115th in quality drives, 116th in net points/drive, 81st in offensive success rate, and 125th in defensive success rate. There’s no true strength to be found.
OK, they’re ninth in scramble EPA. Well, the Hoosiers are eighth in EPA when defending scrambles. You get the picture.
That wide gap in talent and performance partially explains a line hovering around four touchdowns. The other is coach Curt Cignetti’s dominance as a favorite: 14-7 ATS, including 4-2 ATS as a road favorite, and 7-3 ATS in their past ten when favored by more than 21 points.
I’m aware the Hoosiers could be looking ahead to the Big Ten Championship, which, by the way, they haven’t clinched yet. Why doesn’t that deter me? The next time Cignetti takes his foot off the gas will be the first. It’s not in his nature. Plus, IU is getting two key starters back from injury. After being held to 27 points by Penn State and 31 by Wisconsin, expect the Hoosiers to flex on Friday. It’s been nearly a month since IU put up a 50 burger (which they’ve done five times this season, including in three B1G games), and that changes on Saturday.
There’s no rain or wind in the forecast, but it will be in the mid-20s. While Purdue will be challenged to pick up first downs, Indiana’s three-headed backfield should run all over the Boilermakers well into the fourth quarter.
The Hoosiers have played three Big Ten teams that will finish with a losing record. Against them, they’ve averaged a score of 49.7 to 9.7. Sounds about right.
MICHIGAN STATE -3.5 Maryland (@FanDuel)
Time: 7:00 PM | TV: FS1
I haven’t been on Sparty all season, so this feels like a sucker bet, but as the saying goes, scared money…
For most of 2025, Maryland appeared to be the better team, but not of late. The Terps have dropped seven straight, and since their three-point defeat at UCLA, they’ve lost their past four by at least 15 points.
Freshman QB Malik Washington has been solid—his numbers would be better with fewer drops—but has seen his play decline on the road: 51.9 percent, 5.2 YPA, and 4 TDs-3 INTs. Even though this isn’t a true road game (Ford Field), and I might be betting on Washington’s stock long-term, for Saturday’s matchup, I’ll give Alessio Milivojevic the edge. Since taking over for Aidan Chiles, Milivojevic (72.7 percent, 7.3 YPA, 6 TDs-2 INTs) has played solid football.
Just as important, his fiery leadership has given the team some spark.
You might point out that Michigan State is on a longer losing streak (eight games) than Maryland. However, they have played better. After five double-digit losses to start conference play, the Spartans have come oh so close to getting their first Big Ten win. They lost by three in overtime at Minnesota after giving up the game-tying TD with 29 seconds left, and at Iowa by three on a walk-off field goal after giving up the game-tying TD with 1:29 seconds left.
While neither has anything to play for, the Terps were eliminated from bowl contention last week after starting the season 4-0. Sparty is winless in Big Ten play—something they haven’t done since 1958. Michigan State is so hungry for a win that they can taste it.
ILLINOIS -7.5 Northwestern (@DraftKings)
Time: 7:30 PM | TV: FOX
Illinois played arguably its worst game of the season last week. Before getting upset by Wisconsin, their previous losses had come at Indiana, vs. Ohio State, and at Washington. The scores weren’t pretty, but nothing to be ashamed of losing to those opponents.
A group that has won 17 games over the past two seasons will not want to go out like that.
Northwestern might be coming off its best effort of the season. The 38 points scored on Minnesota are 16 points more than their previous high in 2025. The Wildcats put up 525 yards of offense. That’s not just their highest mark of the season, it’s the most yards they put up under David Braun, who is in his third year as headman.
Quarterback Preston Stone threw for 305 yards. Not only was that a season-high, but it was the first time he had thrown for even 200 yards against a Power 4 opponent this season. Expect some regression from Northwestern and especially Stone, who has been far worse in four road games: 633 yards, 58.7 percent, and 2 INTs-6 INTs.
In those road games, the ‘Cats have averaged 15.8 PPG with a 1-3 record, and all three losses have come by at least a touchdown. The strength of Northwestern’s offense has been yards after contact and QB-designed runs, both of which Illinois defends well. It’s a good matchup for Bret Bielema’s team.
The best unit on either side is the Fighting Illini’s offense: 15th in EPA/dropback, 25th in success rate/dropback, 26th in success rate/rush, 26th in quality drive rate, 31st in points/drive, and 42nd in EPA/rush. Northwestern’s defense is not better than 51st in any of those categories.
The Wildcats lack the defensive front (97th in pressure rate, 109th in sack EPA) to disrupt QB Luke Altmyer. When Altmeyer has time, he can shred a defense. He’s also thrown 14 TDs-3 INTs at home compared to 7 TDs-2 INTs on the road.
The Illini are 5-1 at home with a loss to Ohio State, where their 16 points are the most anyone has scored on OSU this season. They upset USC, and their other four wins have come by at least 18 points. At 6.5, this was a B1GGER Bet, but we’re still confident. There’s no reason Illinois doesn’t close the regular season with a double-digit victory.
B1GGER BET (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 2-1 (+1.5 UNITS)
MICHIGAN +10.5 Ohio State (@FanDuel)
Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX
We can certainly make the case for Ohio State to win this game by double digits. Since their 14-7 Week 1 win, the Buckeyes have won ten straight by 18 points or better. They’ve been that dominant this season.
However, they have not been tested at all since Week 1. That’s also the last time they played someone currently ranked: no Indiana, no Oregon, and no USC on the schedule. The last time they played a team with a winning record was Illinois on October 11.
No. 15 Michigan will test them. A young offensive line that has improved as the season has gone on is ranked seventh in yards before contact. Even without their top two backs, the Wolverines ran for 228 yards and four TDs at Maryland last week. The expectation is that Ohio native Jordan Marshall (871 yards, 6.1 YPC, 10 TDs) will get the start. He was dressed in Week 13 and was held out as a precautionary measure since he wasn’t needed. Marshall can be the bellcow on Saturday. Michigan is tenth nationally in yards per carry (5.59), which blows away the best rushing attack OSU has faced, Washington, ranked 46th (5.69 YPC).
Freshman QB Bryce Underwood will also need to be sharp and play mistake-free football. Or at least minimize the mistakes and avoid the big ones like his two INTs two weeks ago at Northwestern in what was an otherwise career-high day with 280 passing yards. He followed that up with a strong game at Maryland and looks ready to make the leap coming off their early November bye. Not only could Underwood be peaking, but he’s played his best ball at home this season: 67.7 percent, 8.5 YPA, 5 TDs-2 INTs (6 sacks).
His legs also need to be a factor as he’s rushed for 322 yards (4.7 YPC) and five TDs. And he’s produced those numbers with the team ranked 125th in QB-designed runs percentage. Maybe they have something up their sleeve?
A name to remember, another true freshman, Andrew Marsh (42-641-15.3), who has produced all but one catch and 30 yards in B1G matchups (since October 4), and is third in the Big Ten in receiving yards in conference play.
Defensively, the Wolverines are ranked tenth in SP+ and 15th in yards per play allowed, better than any OSU opponent this season. They’ve faced two top 30 defenses in yards per play (Texas and Washington) and scored 38 points against them combined. Yes, that was early, so maybe they’ve gotten better, but also they’ve played a lot of bad defenses in the past two months.
Michigan’s defense isn’t as star-studded as last season, but it still has top-notch players and probably has fewer weaknesses. They win at the line of scrimmage—17th in yards allowed before contact and second in pressure rate—which is a requirement if you’re going to challenge the Buckeyes.
OSU doesn’t break many tackles (110th in missed tackle rate), and at times can have a pedestrian run game. With the weather below 30 degrees and a better than 50 percent chance of snow flurries, the conditions are shaping up to be just how the Maize and Blue want it.
If Ohio State’s elite pass catchers are out again or at less than 100 percent (more likely), it could help the Wolverines find their way to a fifth straight victory in The Game. Now, I’m not calling for the upset, but I didn’t believe Michigan would keep the streak going last season (how many times have you heard some version of that line this week? Haha.).
WASHINGTON +7 Oregon (@DraftKings)
Time: 3:30 PM | TV: CBS
With 25 wins in their past 26 games in Husky Stadium, Washington has one of the best home-field advantages in the country. They are 4-2 ATS at home this season, 3-1 ATS in B1G homes, and 7-1 ATS in conference home games since joining the Big Ten, including covers over former Pac-12 foes USC and UCLA last season.
The Huskies are a different team at home, including quarterback Demond Williams Jr. In 150 attempts, both at home and on the road, the sophomore has thrown for 1,592 yards, completed 76.7 percent of his passes for 10.6 YPA and 10 TDs to no INTs at home (1,129, 67.3%, 7.5 YPA, 9TDs-6 INTs on the road). He’s been nothing short of elite and is as dynamic a two-way threat (568 rushing yards and 6 TDs) as we’ve seen in college football this season.
Jedd Fisch’s team has won big the past two weeks (49-13 vs. Purdue, 48-14 at UCLA) despite being without two of their big guns. Both RB1 Jonah Coleman and WR1 Denzel Boston are slated to return for this rivalry game. Their past two wins have been a show of depth, as sophomore Adam Mohammed is coming off his first career 100-yard game, and freshman Dezmen Roebuck caught a career-best seven receptions for 86 yards and his sixth TD, fourth in the past four games.
Oregon’s defense doesn’t have many weaknesses, but it doesn’t get home to the quarterback and really struggles defending QB-designed runs (136th in EPA), which leans into the Huskies using Williams. They gave up 27 points at home to USC, and considering all the players the Trojans had missing, this Washington offense is probably better, and certainly more balanced.
They’re more balanced overall with a superior defense than USC. Like the Ducks, the Huskies don’t have a big-time pass rush, but they don’t have many weaknesses either. Washington is tough to run against and has a good blend of size and athleticism in its defensive middle, with excellent cover corners.
Looking at the advanced metrics, UW isn’t that far off. Oregon is fourth in net points/drive, fifth in EPA margin, third in offensive success rate, and 13th in defensive success rate. At the same time, Washington is 12th in net points/drive, 17th in EPA margin, sixth in offensive success rate, and 24th in defensive success rate.
Is the gap big enough for the Ducks to be a TD favorite over the Huskies in Seattle?
Not in my humble opinion. Especially considering this could be an Oregon offense that is very banged up. Their receiver room has been depleted for weeks now, and their O-line took some hits with their center, left, and right tackle coming out of last Saturday’s win. Washington might be as whole as they’ve been all season.
The Huskies are a live dog on Saturday afternoon.
B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)
None.
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