Breaking Down Notre Dame’s Week 1 Upset Win Over Texas A&M

Now is the Time to Buy Notre Dame Futures

Arguably, this was Notre Dame's biggest test of the season. The Fighting Irish have an unobstructed schedule until November, when they take on the Florida State Seminoles in Week 11 and the USC Trojans in Week 14. We should see their National Championship odds decrease weekly until now, meaning now is the time to buy.

After their decisive win in Week 1, the Fighting Irish are currently priced as mid-range +1700 in National Championship futures betting. We should see their stock soar without a meaningful game on their schedule for the next eight weeks. 

Bettors were already lining up to get a piece of Notre Dame to make the College Football Playoff, installing them as -160 chalk to be included in the 12-team field. Their odds of claiming their first National Championship since 1988 will continue to drop as the season progresses. If you believe in their title aspirations, this is the best price you should expect for the rest of the year. 

Jeremiyah Love is a Doak Walker Candidate

The Fighting Irish have a bevy of playmakers, but no one stood out more than Jeremiyah Love. Notre Dame's lead back scored the game-winning touchdown with less than two minutes to play, but his vitriol throughout supports that we need to take him seriously as a Doak Walker candidate. 

Love's 21-yard run was the difference between winning and losing, but it wasn't his best rush of the game. Earlier in the contest, he broke off a 29-yard jaunt and was the bell cow on offense all night. The sophomore ended the night with 91 yards on 14 carries, but his late-game heroics set him apart as the difference-maker.

Entering the season as a +6000 longshot in Doak Walker futures betting, we should see his odds creep up as the season progresses.

Conner Weigman is Not a Starting Quarterback

Conner Weigman had an entire offseason to practice timing and route-running with his receivers. As we saw on Saturday night, he failed to make the most of that time. Weigman showed that he was a liability and undeserving of the starting job.

When the dust settled, the Aggies quarterback finished with a laughable 100 passing yards on 12-for-13 passing, with no touchdowns and two interceptions. His drive after the Irish scored the go-ahead touchdown perfectly summarizes his night. On first down, with no receivers open, Weigman opted to throw the ball out of bounds despite having running room up the middle and all three timeouts. Subsequently, he threw behind his receiver on second down and telegraphed his throw on fourth down, allowing the Notre Dame defender to jump the route. 

With only nine starts under his belt and five wins to show for his efforts, Weigman has proven that he needs more time to develop before he can lead an offense.

The Aggies Can't Break Through on Offense

Although this ties into Weigman's inability to drive the offense, he alone can't be held responsible for all of the Aggies' woes. Texas A&M consistently falls short in the red zone, which will continue to inhibit its ceiling. 

In three trips to the red zone, the Aggies only converted one touchdown. That's akin to their production inefficiencies from 2023, in which they only scored on 78.6% of trips to the red zone, ranking in the bottom third of FBS teams. 

It cost them against Notre Dame, and unless they find a way to convert their scoring opportunities more frequently, the best the Aggies can hope for is another meaningless bowl game.

Riley Leonard Still Has A Lot to Prove

Granted, Texas A&M's defense is fierce, but that doesn't absolve Riley Leonard of his ineffectiveness in leading Notre Dame down the field. In the end, 85 of their 356 yards came on the game-winning drive, which was more a reflection of the Aggies' poor defending than Leonard's effectiveness. 

Leonard completed 60.0% of his throws for just 158 yards. While he was mobile, finishing the game with 63 rushing yards on 12 carries, he failed to maximize his production. 

Sadly, his completion percentage was on par with his career average, albeit with his yards per pass attempt nearly two yards below his career benchmark. Leonard has enough weapons at his disposal and needs to be more effective at moving the ball downfield. He'll have to exploit stiffer competition than the Aggies if he hopes to lead Notre Dame to a National Championship.

The Fighting Irish Can Spread the Ball Around

One of Leonard's many benefits in operating Notre Dame's offense is that he has a plethora of pass-catchers to distribute the ball to. More importantly, those players can be relied upon to make grabs and pick up yards. 

Beaux Collins led the receivers corps in targets, receptions, and yards. The senior hauled in five of seven targets against a stout Aggies secondary for a game-best 62 yards. He was one of nine Notre Dame pass-catchers, all finishing with multiple targets. 

Opposing defenses can't stop everyone. The Fighting Irish used that to their advantage against Texas A&M, but they could reach a new stratosphere if Leonard improves his progressions.

Jahdae Walker Could be a Stud

Few people are blessed with the build of Jahdae Walker. The Aggies wide receiver stands an imposing 6'4" and weighs 205 lbs. With the right quarterback, we could see Walker emerge as an elite wide receiver in the college ranks and beyond. 

Walker led Texas A&M with nine targets, six receptions, and 31 yards, but that doesn't even scratch the surface of his capabilities. Over the final five games of last season, none of which Weigman started, Walker totaled 416 yards on 25 catches. He cracked the century mark twice, grabbing eight catches in both outings. 

While he was limited against the Fighting Irish, we know what Walker can do. The Aggies' best chance of competing is using their elite pass-catcher appropriately, something we didn't see in Week 1.

Notre Dame's Defense is Up to the Task

It's easy to fault Texas A&M for all of its offensive shortcomings, but we also have to appreciate Notre Dame's defense for what it is -- an elite unit that can stop the run and defend against the pass. 

The Fighting Irish crippled the Aggies offense from the get-go. They limited their hosts to just 254 yards of total offense, including a paltry 100 yards via the aerial attack. Texas A&M mustered just 3.3 yards per pass attempt and 3.8 yards per rush attempt while converting four of its 13 third down attempts, and neither of its fourth down tries. 

Notre Dame flexed their defensive muscles in Week 1, setting the stage for another dominant campaign.

Texas A&M is Doomed in Conference Play

Even with an expanded SEC field, the outlook for Texas A&M is bleak. Notre Dame consistently comes up short against superior competition, and the Fighting Irish dominated on both sides of the ball against the Aggies. As such, we can't take the Aggies seriously as SEC contenders. 

Texas A&M barely scraped by in SEC play last year, going a disappointing 4-4. Week 1's loss foreshadowed that's unlikely to change in 2024. Although their rebuilt defense was solid for most of the contest, they showed they still make mistakes. Worse, their offense looked out of sync despite having an entire offseason to prepare for the non-conference tilt versus Notre Dame.

With Weigman unable to sharpen his teeth at home against the Irish, the Aggies will surely be outmatched when the conference schedule begins in Week 3. 

Now is the Time to Buy Notre Dame Futures

Arguably, this was Notre Dame's biggest test of the season. The Fighting Irish have an unobstructed schedule until November, when they take on the Florida State Seminoles in Week 11 and the USC Trojans in Week 14. We should see their National Championship odds decrease weekly until now, meaning now is the time to buy.

After their decisive win in Week 1, the Fighting Irish are currently priced as mid-range +1700 in National Championship futures betting. We should see their stock soar without a meaningful game on their schedule for the next eight weeks. 

Bettors were already lining up to get a piece of Notre Dame to make the College Football Playoff, installing them as -160 chalk to be included in the 12-team field. Their odds of claiming their first National Championship since 1988 will continue to drop as the season progresses. If you believe in their title aspirations, this is the best price you should expect for the rest of the year.