College Football 2024 Betting Preview: Big Ten Best Bets & Futures Predictions
Danny Mogollon
Host · Writer
We made it! The college football season is here, and Big Ten Football is back tonight! Which means it’s time for B1G Bets! We’ll start with our favorite futures bets and return tomorrow with our Week 1 picks.
B1GGEST BET
Michigan OVER 8.5 Regular Season Wins (-168 @ FanDuel)
Yes, Michigan lost a lot from last season’s National Championship team, including star QB J.J. McCarthy and HC Jim Harbaugh. But this is still a playoff-caliber team that features arguably the best defense in college football, led by CB Will Johnson, DTs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, and LB Jaishawn Barham, a Maryland transfer creating a ton of buzz in camp. The offense returns potential first-round pick TE Colston Loveland and RB Donovan Edwards, the best returning sub-500 yards runner in college football (ask Ohio State and Washington), the lynchpin of a deep backfield.
The schedule is brutal. It’s much more challenging than last season. In addition to No. 2 Ohio State (+9.5), No. 3 Oregon (+3.5) replaces Penn State, and No. 4 Texas (+3.5) is on the non-con portion of the schedule, but both come to Ann Arbor. By the moneyline, Michigan has a 44.3% chance to beat Oregon, a 40.7% chance to beat Texas, and a 23.8% chance to upset OSU. Do you think they’re losing all three? I don’t. Even if they do, the Wolverines can still go OVER 8.5 with two more losses than they had in the last three regular seasons combined (one!).
B1GGER BET
Penn State -140 to Make The College Football Playoff (DraftKings)
Like Michigan, Penn State brings back what should be an elite defense. Abdul Carter might be the best defender in college football, and he is shifting to defensive end to take advantage of his pass-rushing skills. The Nittany Lions bookend their line with another NFL talent, former five-star recruit Dani Dennis-Sutton. The hope is that the offense will be better this year due to the hiring of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, a master at creating explosive plays, which was PSU’s weakness last season.
Even if they’re not better, this team was good enough to win ten regular season games in each of the past two seasons, and there’s no Michigan (PSU has a three-game losing streak) on the schedule this year. Not just the Wolverines, but PSU also avoids Oregon and Iowa, leaving just two ranked teams on the docket. They can lose to OSU (+3.5) at home and get upset once against West Virginia (-8.5), USC (-4), or Wisconsin (-6.5) on their way to ten wins. But rather than -172 on OVER 9.5 wins (FanDuel), we’re banking double-digit victories to get them into the CFP as better value for the Nittany Lions.
Indiana UNDER 6.5 Regular Season Wins (-125 @Caesars)
I like Curt Cignetti as much as the next ‘capper—ok, actually, I don’t because some of y’all are a bit over the top. I love his track record (great hire) and trash talk, but this is still an Indiana team coming off a three-win season that is banking on transfers (potentially 15 transfer starters) coming together quickly, mainly from the Group of Five level. That’s a lot to ask in Year 1.
The Hoosiers wisely dropped the Louisville game, so IU should be able to sweep the non-conference portion of their schedule. That still means four Big Ten wins to surpass 6.5, which would be more than Indiana notched in the past three seasons combined (3-24). For what it’s worth, SP+ has the boys from Bloomington ranked last in the Big Ten with a projected win total of 4.9. Doubling their win total from a year ago and making a bowl game for the first time since 2020 would be a heck of a season for Cignetti & Company, and we still win. That makes me feel good about this UNDER bet.
Maryland UNDER 4.5 Regular Season Conference Wins (-165 @ DraftKings)
Losing Taulia Tagovailoa might be as significant a loss as any in the Big Ten. Neither Billy Edwards nor MJ Morris has anywhere near his passing acumen, which reduces the value of their strong group of pass catchers. The Terps ranked 123rd in returning offensive production, as they must rebuild their entire offensive line from a team that went 1-5 when scoring fewer than 31 points last season. I still think they can potentially make a bowl, but they will take a step back from last year’s seven regular-season wins.
With UConn (-20), Virginia (4.5-win total), and Villanova (FCS) in September, I expect Maryland to extend their out-of-conference winning streak to 15 games (including bowl wins). That means they can win four Big Ten games—go OVER 6.5 wins—and still cover our UNDER. Book it.
Minnesota UNDER 3.5 Regular Season Conference Wins (-150 @ Caesars)
Could Minnesota be improved? Maybe. But we’d be counting on FBS transfer Max Brosmer significantly elevating a passing offense that doesn’t have many proven pass catchers beyond WR1 Daniel Jackson. Defensively, the Gophers must replace their best player (Tyler Nubin) and highly thought of DC Joe Rossi.
Minnesota is a five- or six-win team, so their regular season win total of 5.5 is a pass for me. They need to take care of business at home versus UNC in a toss-up game to make a bowl. That’s because the conference schedule is challenging. Michigan (R), Penn State (H), USC (H), and Iowa (H) are just better. No debate. Looking at the rest of the conference slate, they will likely be underdogs at UCLA, Rutgers, and Wisconsin, which leaves a home game against Maryland and a road contest at Illinois. There’s not a Big Ten game the Gophers have to win. I’d much rather have Illinois, UCLA, and Rutgers at home than Penn State, USC, and Iowa. If they win in Week 1, there’s a good chance they go over their season win total but under the B1G number.
B1G BET
Iowa OVER 8.5 Regular Season Wins (+152 @ FanDuel)
We expect the Hawkeyes to do what they do. Phil Parker is an elite DC, and his defense (No. 3 in SP+) is second in the country in returning production (86.5%). If you thought they used turnovers to overcome their inept offense, you’d be wrong because they were 106th in turnover luck and 100th in takeaways, typically a Parker specialty (3rd in 2021, 8th in 2018, 16th in 2017, 18th in 2022, 24th in 2020, 34th in 2019). The offense won’t be good, but it should be better: four starting O-linemen and their top four rushers return, TE Luke Lachey is back healthy, and Brendan Sullivan is a significant upgrade as QB2 (over Deacon Hill) should Cade McNamara get injured again or falter.
I was more bullish on the Hawkeyes when this number was at 7.5, but I still like their path to nine wins with a schedule that could see Iowa favored as many as 11 times (albeit several at a touchdown or less). Parker’s defense will be in the conversation for the best in college football, and Kirk Ferentz will beat the teams he’s supposed to beat enough times to win nine or ten games (three times in the past four full seasons; went 6-2 in 2020). That’s what they do. If you want to play it safer, take the OVER 8 wins (-130 @Draft Kings). The Hawkeyes have won at least eight games in six of the past eight full seasons.
Illinois OVER 5.5 Regular Season Wins
A year after being overrated entering the season, the Fighting Illini might be slightly underrated going into 2024. I expect both units to be improved, with the addition of left tackle J.C. Davis from New Mexico, a potential game-changer on offense. Quarterback Luke Altmyer was a different passer with and without a clean pocket.
But really, this pick is about the schedule as much as anything else. Illinois hosts Eastern Illinois (-27.5) and Central Michigan in out-of-conference. The Big Ten schedule makers did them a huge favor. Not only are Michigan State (5 wins season-win total), Purdue (4.5 wins), and Northwestern (4.5 wins) on the schedule (B1G’s projected bottom three), but they are all at home. Hosting your five weakest opponents is the smoothest path to bowl eligibility, and in this case, OVER 5.5 wins. I’m not giving them much of a chance against Oregon, Michigan, or Penn State, but the Illini should be able to get one or two more wins versus Kansas (H), Nebraska (R), Minnesota (H), and Rutgers (R). Hopefully, we only need one.
Michigan State UNDER 5 Regular Season Wins (-135 @ DraftKings)
Jonathan Smith is another good long-term hire who may show little improvement in Year 1. The defense lost eight of 15 players with 200+ snaps last season, and the offensive line must replace six of seven blockers with 200+ snaps. The QB will have to carry this offense, and that’s a lot to ask from a redshirt freshman quarterback in Aidan Chiles, who flashed at Oregon State (94 snaps) but held the ball too long too often (four sacks on 42 dropbacks).
With Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, and Iowa on the schedule (all in succession), Sparty isn’t reaping the benefits of no Big Ten East in 2024. Eight games are winnable, and ten are losable. If they make it to five wins, that’s an excellent first season; six would be a minor miracle, and four is the most likely scenario.
Nebraska UNDER 7.5 Regular Season Wins (+126 @FanDuel)
I know, I know, Nebraska is considered a bounce-back candidate. They went 0-5 in close games last season, were last in the Power Five in turnover margin (-17), and finished 130th in turnover luck. The defense will be outstanding again, and the offense will improve. But isn’t that all already baked into the number? We’re asking a program that hasn’t made a bowl game since 2016 not just to make a bowl (not win seven games) but also to win eight games.
Last season’s schedule featured five Power Five bowl teams, including Northwestern. While they should go 3-0 in their out-of-conference slate (assuming they handle Colorado at home), there are no gimmies on the Big Ten schedule. If they go 7-5, Matt Rhule will have led the Huskers to their best season in eight years with a true freshman quarterback, and they’ll still go UNDER the win total at plus money. That’s a no-brainer.
MONEYLINE SPRINKLE
USC To Make the Playoffs (+470 @FanDuel)
My lean on USC’s regular season win total is Over 7.5 wins. The offense will be terrific, and the defense, with the addition of defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn and several key transfers, will be much improved. My trepidation (along with line depth) is with the schedule, which features top-15 foes in No. 7 Notre Dame (+3.5), No. 8 Penn State (+4), No. 9 Michigan (+9), and No. 13 LSU (+4), with road games at Minnesota, Maryland, Washington, and rival UCLA (-6.5). Every game is winnable, but ten—including Wisconsin (-5.5) and Nebraska at home—are also very losable.
So, if USC can get to eight wins, why not nine? And if they get to nine wins with a daunting schedule while notching a pair of upsets over fellow playoff contenders, why can’t USC make the CFP? Lynn’s UCLA defense improved from 92nd in SP+ to 17th last season. If he makes half the jump with the Trojans, nine or even ten wins are on the table. In six full seasons as head coach, Lincoln Riley has won ten regular season games five times. USC’s number at FanDuel to win 10+ games is +240, which I don’t love. But ten wins is getting the Men of Troy to the CFP, and that number is a much tastier +470.
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