After a disastrous 2020 campaign, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh said the Wolverines would beat hated rival Ohio State or “die trying.” Not only have the Maize and Blue survived, but they’ve been living large. Three straight wins over Ohio State. Three-straight College Football Playoff appearances. All culminating in the program’s first National Title since 1997. That was the end of an era—one the NCAA is still investigating—as Harbaugh has finally moved onto the NFL and offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore takes over the helm in Ann Arbor. Can he keep the Wolverines at the top of the college football landscape?

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Michigan Wolverines Preview

2023 Record: 15-0 (9-0); Big Ten Finish: 1st in B1G East (Big Ten Champs)

A.P. Poll: No. 9 | Coaches Poll: No. 8 | PFF: No. 3 | SP+: No. 7

Head Coach: Sherrone Moore (1st Year; 7th w/ UM) | Record: 4-0

Offensive Coordinator: Kirk Campbell (1st Year; 3rd w/ UM)

Defensive Coordinator: Wink Martindale (1st Year)

Michigan Wolverines Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +3000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +150

B1G Championship Odds: +850 | Exact Wins 9: +290

Win 10+ Games: +150 | Undefeated Regular Season: +1650

Regular Season Wins: OVER 8.5 -162 | UNDER 8.5 +132

Michigan Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

D-Fence! The Wolverines ranked No. 1 in the country in scoring (10.4 PPG) and total (247 YPG) defense last season, and the Maize and Blue should be just as staunch in 2024. Upfront, they’re led by projected top-ten pick Mason Graham and potential first-rounder Kenneth Grant at D-tackle, with future pros Derrick Moore and Josaiah Stewart flying off the edges. Linebacker Ernest Hausmann was third in tackles despite coming off the bench, and transfer Jaishawn Barham is a versatile talent who DC Wink Martindale will maximize. CB Will Johnson is another top-ten pick in waiting. Their CB2 still must emerge, and Mike Sainristil will be challenging to replace. But considering they added P5 starting safeties Jaden Mangham (MSU) and Wesley Walker (Tennessee) with one (possibly both) slated to a backup role, secondary depth won’t be an issue. If you’re worried about losing DC Mike Minter, remember that Martindale is the Godfather of the defense Minter and Mike Macdonald (now Seattle Seahawks HC) ran at Michigan.

Michigan Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

They lost a lot from last season’s National Championship team. Ranked 126th in returning production, the Wolverines had 13 players drafted, including quarterback J.J. McCarthy, star running back Blake Corum, and leading receiver Roman Wilson. The entire offensive line must also be replaced. Not to mention the departure of coach Harbaugh, DC Minter, and numerous other assistant coaches. We like the coaching hires, and Moore acquitted himself excellently in an interim role last season when he led the Wolverines to wins at Penn State and over Ohio State, but he is a rookie head coach. For the first time in his career, it’s his program.

Michigan Breakout Player: CB Jyaire Hill, Sophomore

With so much production to replace, Michigan probably features the most breakout candidates in the Big Ten. It’s challenging to pinpoint one guy, but we’re going with sophomore cornerback Jyaire Hill. The four-star prospect out of Illinois was the third-highest rated recruit in Michigan’s 2023 class and probably their most important get with corner a position of need. While he didn’t contribute much as a true freshman, word out of camp is Hill has matured a lot, both on and off the field. The physical talent is there for Hill to emerge as Michigan’s next great coverman.

Michigan X-Factor: Quarterback

Losing Harbaugh may be the most significant departure in the long term, but for 2024, it’s J.J. McCarthy. Had the quarterback returned, Michigan would be in the conversation to be preseason No. 1. Without him, they are considered an underdog (+150) to make the playoffs. There’s no shortage of candidates, but none are proven. Elite athlete and dynamic runner Alex Orji is considered the favorite but will have to hold off the more experienced Jack Tuttle. Don’t count out Warren Davis, who served as McCarthy’s backup in 2022 (ahead of Alan Bowman, who led OSU to the Big 12 Championship Game in 2023), or even true freshman Jadyn Davis (No. 112 recruit) later in the season. If Orji isn’t the starter, expect him to have running packages. He will see the field. Even average play from the position could vault this team to a fourth-straight trip to the CFP.

Michigan Schedule Analysis

With three top-four teams on the docket in No. 2 Ohio State (+9.5), No. 3 Oregon (+3.5), and No. 4 Texas (+3.5), the Wolverines have one of the most demanding schedules in the country. Arguably the most difficult in terms of going undefeated. The Longhorns are slated for a Week 2 visit to Ann Arbor, so QB1 will only have a little time to settle in. The Ducks also come to the Big House, and the Wolverines end the season in Columbus. For the first time since 2012, Penn State isn’t on the schedule, but Michigan does get No. 23 USC (-8.5) at home and must make a trip to Washington (-9.5) in a National Championship Game rematch. They will be a big favorite in all their other contests and play eight home games.

Michigan Prediction: OVER/UNDER 8.5 Wins

There are many reasons why Michigan is expected to take a step back. Jim Harbaugh is coaching the Los Angeles Chargers, and Sherrone Moore is a rookie HC. J.J. McCarthy is a Minnesota Viking. There’s no obvious replacement under center, and numerous other members of Team 144 are playing on Sundays. The schedule is much more demanding than a year ago. All of that is true. You know what else is true? The Wolverines can lose more regular season games in 2024 than they did in the past three years (two) combined and still hit the over! Moore is not entirely unproven and can be himself while maintaining the team’s identity (smash!) born under Harbaugh. This defense is too good. I would be surprised if the Wolverines do not pull off at least one upset in their three top-10 matchups and should be at least touchdown favorites in nine games. Ten wins are significantly more likely than seven. Take the over as Michigan cashes in for us for the fourth straight season.

SP+ gives Michigan a 17 percent chance to win the B1G (PFF is at 14 percent), while their +850 price equals just a 10.53 percent implied probability. That kids is what we call value.

Michigan Preseason Pick

OVER 8.5 (-162 @ Caesars Best Price)

Michigan Best Bet

+850 to win the Big Ten

B1G Previews: Iowa | Maryland | Oregon | Penn State | Rutgers | USC

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