NCAAF · 1 year ago

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Preview | Expert Predictions & Best Bets

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Preview | Expert Predictions & Best Bets

Rutgers is coming off a 7-6 season, and for many programs in the Big Ten, that would get their coach fired. But not at the “Birth Place of College Football.” It was RU’s first winning season and bowl win since 2014. What does Greg Schiano do for an encore? Many believe this might be the best Scarlet Knights team since Schiano’s first tenure at New Jersey’s state school.

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights Preview

2023 Record: 7-6 (3-6); Big Ten Finish: 5th in B1G East

AP Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | PFF: No. 61 | SP+: No. 49

Head Coach: Greg Schiano (16th Year) | Record: 87-95

Offensive Coordinator: Kirk Ciarrocca (2nd Year)

Defensive Coordinator: Joe Harasymiak (3rd Year)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +80000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +2000

B1G Championship Odds: +12000 | Win 6+ Games: -205

Win 10+ Games: +700 | Undefeated Regular Season: +7000

Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 -105 | UNDER 7.5 +115

Rutgers Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

Not only is Rutgers coming off their best season in nearly a decade, but they also rank 13th (72.1%) in the country (second in the B1G) in returning production, including much of their defenses, which was the strength of the team in 2023 and should be again in 2024. However, they took a significant hit yesterday when linebacker Mohamed Toure was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Defensive ends Aaron Lewis and Wesley Bailey are above-average B1G linemen, cornerback Robert Longerbeam leads a deep and robust secondary, the offensive line (returns 48 of 65 starts) is solid, and RB Kyle Monangai is the workhorse Schiano needs. They will lean on their strengths… a sound defense, special teams, and a ball-control, time-consuming offense.

Rutgers Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

The Rutgers offense has been one-dimensional for years, and there’s not much reason to believe they will be significantly better through the air in 2024. Despite having one of college football’s top-rated runners, the Scarlet Knights finished 120th in total offense, 115th in yards per play, 94th in scoring, 93rd in success rate, and 87th in EPA per play thanks to a passing attack that was 125th in passing efficiency and 115th in explosive plays. Former Minnesota Golden Gopher Athan Kaliakmanis replaces the propelling-challenged Gavin Wimsatt. The Greek Riffle is an improvement, but he is no sure thing himself. Kaliakmanis has a strong arm but struggles with his accuracy. He had one of the worst adjusted completion percentages last season, with too many turnover-worthy plays. He’s terrible under pressure and pass protection is the O-line’s weakness. They still could have the worst passing offense in the Big Ten.

Rutgers Breakout Player: TE Kenny Fletcher

Rutgers lost their top two tight ends from a year ago, Johnny Langan and Shawn Bowman, and converted defensive end Kenny Fletcher is expected to take over the starting role. The former high school receiver impressed with his pass-catching ability and is “uber-talented,” according to Schiano. In Fletcher, Rutgers has a faster and more athletic tight end than they’ve had in years.

Rutgers X-Factor: Middle of the Front Seven

While the defense had good overall numbers, their run defense—ranked 124th in rushing success rate allowed—left much to be desired. Gone are their top two tacklers from 2023, Deion Jennings and Toure (arguably their best player), and their most productive interior linemen. LB Tyreem Powell is back but coming off an Achilles injury. That puts a lot of pressure on Florida State transfer DT Malcolm Ray (19 tackles), young linebackers Dariel Djabome (15 tackles as a sophomore), and redshirt freshman Abram Wright (INT in Pinstripe Bowl). The hope was that the front seven would be even stronger in 2024, which they still may be, but what if they took a step back?

Rutgers Schedule Analysis

By most metrics, Rutgers has the easiest schedules in the Big Ten, ranked 44th in strength of schedule by PFF. No longer in the Big Ten East, Rutgers doesn’t have to face Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State this season. Also, Oregon is not on the docket. That’s the B1G’s top four teams. So, easy peasy? Not so fast. Bill Connelly rates the schedule even lower (57th SOS) than PFF but notes that Rutgers plays eight straight games against top-50 SP+ teams. My guess is they will likely be the underdog in six of those games. Also off their schedule are Indiana and Northwestern, two of their three Big Ten wins from 2024, while they visit Virginia Tech (home win in ’23) out of conference.

Rutgers Prediction: OVER/UNDER 6.5 Wins

I’m not as bullish on Rutgers as many are (but are they really?). They’ve been a trendy team to talk up. I still don’t love the roster, but I believe in Schiano, who has the program headed in the right direction, which should be no surprise. He got them to seven wins and a bowl victory even faster (Year 4) than the first time around during their Big East days (Year 6). With an easier schedule (11 winnable games vs. nine last year) and what should be a better team, they’re unlikely to take a step back. But I’m not necessarily sold that they will improve on last year’s 6-6 regular season, so I’m taking them Over 6.0 at Draft Kings. The extra juice is worth it (they’re -205 to win 6+ games).

This is a six- or seven-win team. Book it.